Throwing over the middle of the field

I'm way smarter than him!

 

Dobbs didn’t have eyebrows

 

Most aliens don't

 

Years ago I lived in a fraternity full of engineers at Carnegie Tech

Even there with the people in the top 100th IQ percentile we would accuse some of being dumber than a box of rocks

Some became billionaires and CEO’s a few are homeless

 

Nah, they're facts. You just don't want to give credit where credit is due. He did actually win a Super Bowl. He did actually get the team to a second Super Bowl. He actually never had a losing season. That means he was a very good regular season coach. He actually made it to the playoffs with non-Ben QBs. His shortcomings are also very real, the ones I mentioned and the ones you brought up. He should also be held accountable for those but to say he was not a good coach is absurd and I'm guessing you know that.

 

Tonyan got involved in the last game against the Packers.

 

Tomlin was way too conservative and all of his coaching hires sucked! So glad he is gone. I wish Danny Smith would have stayed though.

 

I'm excited to see what happens in the new era.

I think we'll probably decline in the short term.

But hopefully MM can make something of the young QBs we have...or find a true successor next draft. This team won't be competitive for more than a WC spot without a real answer at QB IMO.

Who knows if MM can find that. But I think he's got a better change than MT would have.

Although I do think finding a good QB takes a lot of luck if you aren't drafting very early in a year with very good QBs.

 

I'm aware of all the facts, not just the one or two that fit an agenda that is not about football or the Steelers

 

I'm not sure what that even means but this is the point in the conversation when I say we will just have to agree to disagree.

 

I Would like to see Freirmuth and Washington thrown to more, MM needs to target the TE position at minimum 7-8 times a game. Between both of them I think we have about 24/mil per year invested in them, they better use the position. Not just for helping out a Tackle that can't
handle their man.

 

This is why some HC avoid the middle of the field. (chart ordered in increasing MOF INT %, vertical lines are average of QBs listed)

Some interesting things popped out;

• The INT to MOF is about double the outside zones
• notice where Fields and Trubisky land? That is why Tomlin was shy about the MOF.
• Darnold throwing left is far above the average INT rate
• Rodgers is really good
• The difference between throwing right or left for some QBs is stark; example Pickett throwing left...oof.
• Sam Howell... really bad QB

 

Of course, interceptions are higher when you throw in the middle of the field, but it's easier for opponents to defend the offense when you know you're not going to attempt passes in the middle of the field, especially in the first half.

Sometimes, when you're a threat everywhere, it opens up options and you'll have more opportunities to make big plays. Explosive plays are just as important as turnovers, so you can live with one turnover here and there if you're able to make explosive plays often. That's what made the Greatest Show on Turf so great; they weren't worried about turnovers because they were able to make so many explosive plays.

 

If you are going to throw the ball deep along the sideline please at least throw it in bounds

If it’s third and 7 don't throw a 5 yard out pattern (NOD)

As Dan Marino said if it’s third down and you are not past the first down marker I am not throwing the ball to you

 

I worry that it's going to take MM a long time to realize that we should be throwing to Washington. Especially in the red zone.

Rodgers should remember though.

 

Let's play "find the Steelers QBs"!

And we should probably realize that the reason Kenny was around average here is that he was in the straight jacket offense where he wasn't really allowed to throw over the middle in the first half.

The reason?

Look where Mitch and Fields are on this chart.

I think this chart also shows why Tomlin was happy to get Rodgers even though he was in decline.

 

Shazier didn't have eyebrows either.

 

Throwing to the middle of the field.
First you have to have rec'rs that can win off the first step. We haven't had that for some time.
You also have to have more than one, the other draws attention on a deeper route or an out.
You can run drag routes but again, someone has to clear the lane.

From a QB perspective, you cannot throw late into the middle.. never, ever, never throw late.

Then there's the OC.
That weasel from Canada or named Canada that was our pretend OC, probably had no idea there was even a route for that.

Perception.
Pat Freiermuth is good at running those seams in the middle.
DK isn't bad.
We have good pass catching RB's that are good for that circle route.

I think Mike McCarthy and Brian Angleichio have a far better grasp off the offensive attack. I can't say how disappointed I was in Arthur Smith's design, he was from the Gibbs coaching tree and I expected more from him. They guy before him was at beat forgettable.

 

They barely played in the last game Washington new contract starts next year.

 

I think it's pretty hard to argue that we would have had a better winning percentage in games played with Duck, Mason, Kenny, late-stage Wilson, and Fields by being more aggressive throwing the ball.

And while Mitch had a better record away from the Steelers than with the Steelers, I think it's really hard to look at Bubba's chart and say that the solution to winning more with Mitch is to throw over the middle (where he almost leads the league in INT%...but not as high as Fields).

And ultimately, the goal is to win games. Not to throw over the middle. The goal of football is to end up with more points than the other team. Not to throw over the middle more.

Aside: I wonder if anyone's ever looked at data trying to correlate the number of passes over the middle to win%? I wonder if it's negatively correlated? Kind of like the opposite of running. I wonder if you throw over the middle more if you're behind.

And while we did win games...we were as far from pretty (on offense) as it's possible to be.

If the argument is that we should have been more focused on winning games in the medium term than the short term, then I agree. I think that's a team philosophy thing that comes from the top. The coaching staff was responding to the incentives they had in place.

If Tomlin goes back to coaching (and I think it's at least 50%)...I really hope he goes to a team that's more aggressive historically. Because I think that will help us answer some questions. But my guess is also that a team that would hire Tomlin would be a team that's been bad for a long time and looking to raise the floor rather than raise the ceiling. So a team like WAS (who is usually really bad) rather than a team like BUF (who's already good and looking to get over the hump).

 

You have to be accurate and on time to throw over the middle consistently and win in the NFL. Average on-target percentage is supposed to be something like 75%. Unlike something like succ%, this is a subjective stat. So I guess the hope here is that the samples are big enough that the errors even out over the sample. Data from PFR under advanced passing.

• Pickett: career is 72.1% about the same with us. INT% is pretty low. 2% total. 1.8% with us. But can't throw TDs. TD% is equal to his INT% both career and with us. Gives you 1 TD / pick. Not great.
• Mitch: career 75.0%...about the same with us 75.2%. Unfortunately, when he missed bad things happened. INT% 4.1%, and still high at 3.5% in our straight jacket offense.
• Mason: career 74.4%. A little higher with us at 75.1%.
• Duck: career (a short one) 77.2%! But INT% was 5%. I think we can probably chalk both numbers up to small samples. And the fact that he knew that his time was super short, so he was going for the gusto! We were bad, but I kind of liked that season because expectations were so low.
• Fields: career 72.2%. With us 75%. INT% 2.4%. Was 3.1% with CHI, but 0.6% in the straight jacket here. And maybe Tomlin taught him something because it was similar in NYJ @ 0.5%. But could easily be small samples too.
• Wilson: career 76.5%. With us 76.4%. Was the first average QB we had in a long time. Though I liked Fields too because he had something special to work around. INT% 1.9% career. 1.5% with us. I think the fumble against BAL kind of broke him though.
• Rodgers: career 78.4%! With us, 73.9% (declining). Was also 75.5% with the jets, so the decline was from GB, to NYJ, to us. Rodgers is elite at not throwing picks. INT% career is 1.4%! Was also 1.4% with us. I'm sure Tomlin loved this signing.

Most of these guys are inaccurate. And many of them throw to the other team pretty consistently when they miss the guy on their team. There is a reason that you don't want most of these guys throwing over the middle consistently (assuming you're trying to win games vs. get a high pick in the following draft).

Definitions: On target percentage the rate at which a pass is deemed catchable by an intended receiver under normal playing conditions, excluding throwaways and clocking the ball.

 

If you look at the colts in the last 3 years,their offense was above average(when it was not Richardson or 44 years old Rivers) and this is not like their QB situation was special....It was below average.Of course they did not make the playoffs since their defense was complete trash but my point,I hate so much so when a head coach handcuffs his offense like crazy it kills the ceiling....I don't think Tomlin would be able to develop a young QB and become special after that....Pickett would have been terrible no matter what, but nobody can say he was in a good situation in a Matt Canada offense

Even in the killer b's era, they had too many games where they were conservative at the start, especially on the road. At home, it was less of a problem, but too often in the first 1-2 drives of the game, it was either screen or run the ball, regardless of the opponent's strength or weakness, instead of attacking from the start.

Still have very bad memory from the Jets game in 2014 when Roethlisberger was 9-11 for only 24 yards and they were down 17-0 before to open up the offense and it was too late.The Jets were awful against the pass,they had a strong front seven,Ben had back to back 6 TD pass but for some reason,the gameplan from the start was screen and running the ball against that team

 

Doesn't this kind of prove my point though?

Colts record in the last 3 years: 8-9 / 8-9 / 9-8
Steelers record in the last 3 years: 10-7 / 10-7 / 10-7

The goal of a team isn't to throw over the middle. It's to win games. Especially on the Steelers where the owner has zero interest in being bad in the present to get a good QB for the future.

Without looking it up, I'd imagine that the Colts have had a much more entertaining offense than we've had over this 3 year span. But our "suck the life out of the game and let the other team beat themselves" scheme got us a better record each of these three years. And three playoff appearances we probably didn't deserve (all quick exits) to their zero playoff appearances.

Now...we've certainly sucked in the playoffs recently. But we've been to the playoffs 4x since the Colt's last appearance (and we were in that year too).

They've made the playoffs once in the last six seasons. And we've missed them once in that same period. Again...I bet they were more entertaining to watch.

And I don't think we can throw out the games where the Colts had bad QBs unless we do the same for the Steelers. And if we do that for the Steelers, we lose a lot (most?) of the post-Ben era. Also of the post-Ben's Injury era. But we got to the playoffs almost every year after Ben's injury. And the two years we missed (2019 when he got injured and 2022 after he retired) we were within a whisker of making it. IIRC, would have made it in 2019 under the current rules (because I think only 6 made the playoffs in 2019).

Tomlin was very good at making chicken salad with the QBs we had after Ben got hurt. I don't think that makes him elite or anything. But it is a noteworthy accomplishment.

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I agree that the story could be potentially different in the BBB era. That another coach may have gotten to the SB with that group. And that Tomlin's "super power" in the NFL is more about having a high floor than a high ceiling.

Although, I'll again point out that we only ever played ~3.25 playoff games with B&B&B. I think that people continually forget about how little Bell played in the playoffs. And what a difference maker he was in the games he did play (carried the team to victory in 2 of the 3 full playoff games he played, and had over 150 total yards and a TD in the loss to JAX). Overall, I think Brown was the best of the three players in this time period (not meant to be a shot at Ben), but Bell was amazing in the playoffs the few times he was available.

Personally, I don't think a more aggressive approach would have us beating the Pats after Bell got hurt. And we lost the Jags game by fewer points than our offense scored for their team...so I'm not sure that being more aggressive wins us that game either. Especially since they dominated us in two games anytime the game was within 10 points. We needed to not **** the bed on offense in the first half...

Ben was a very high variance player. The highs were high. The lows were low. I think that's part of the reason Cowher limited his attempts so much (because he was even more like this when he was younger...and he didn't gobble up as much of the cap early...even though we didn't benefit from the rookie wage cap). He was the most important player on the team for Cowher and Tomlin. I think he deserves most of the credit for the wins. And most of the credit for the losses (especially in games where he scored for the wrong team). That's just the nature of being a QB. And as I said many times in the Ben vs. Brees thread, I wouldn't change it. Because Ben and Troy were the most exciting players I've ever watched play the game. And it was a great ride.

Personally, I think it's very rare for a HC to develop a QB in the NFL, so I agree that it's not likely that Tomlin could do it. I think for the most part QBs kind of are or they aren't. I think exceptions are Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (although he never makes it to be a good passer if he didn't come in to the league as an elite athlete IMO).

I think you're right that following a team gives us the ability to easily remember all the crappy things that happen for the team we follow. I know I personally have less perspective of this for other teams.

IMO, this is the best explanation for the minority of people who think that Tomlin was a terrible HC...which is an objectively terrible opinion. Though I think it's clearly reasonable to think he was worse (or better) than Cowher.

 

I think you missed when I said later that the colts defense were complete trash,like bottom 10 each years....QB like Minshew and Daniel Jones were very good for them.I don't think they would been good with us

 

Almost like throwing over the middle of the field isn't the main objective of a football team, right?

I think Minshew and Jones may have had better stats with them. But would have had more wins with us.

Because designing your team to win shootouts with bad QBs is a bad strategy.

Supporting evidence: all the bad QBs we got to 0.500 or better post Ben's injury.