Two High Safety Here to Stay

It was only a couple seasons ago that the Steelers ran far more single high than any other team in the league.

Offenses have loaded up on bigger bodies this offseason and seem to be gearing up to focus more on the running game, but can they force defenses to cycle back into putting a safety in the box? After speaking with defensive coaches, the collective answer was, surprisingly, no. Two-high defenses are here to stay. Quarterbacks and receivers are simply too good. Finding ways to slow the run, while making it hard to create explosive pass plays, is the key to modern defenses. Even if one or two teams become so explosive on the ground they force defenses to put the extra safety in the box, those offenses won’t be enough to change the defensive meta.

• The top quarterbacks can decipher these coverages after the snap, find the weaknesses and hit deep passes with anticipation, but two-high makes it much more difficult to execute.
• Defenses have to be OK giving up efficient runs on the ground. The theory is that it is very difficult to keep stringing together efficient runs, and offensive coordinators will eventually get impatient.
• “I know that it’s not sexy, but the second you go single-high, the explosive passing rate goes ridiculously high.”
• You can’t abandon your defensive philosophy, and if a team is really dominating on the ground, there are schematic levers to pull to try to disrupt the run game.
  “When you’re in nickel (five defensive backs) and split-safety coverages versus 12 and 13 personnel (multiple tight ends), you’re gonna give us some 7- and 8-yard runs, and that’s where you got to be comfortable doing that and have the discipline to stay with it,” an AFC head coach said.

The most forward-thinking defensive coaches will find ways to slow down the run game schematically to allow themselves to stay in two-high coverages.

Full article a good read: NFL defensive coaches explain why the 2-high safety trend is here to stay - The Athletic

 

This is why the nickel has become the base defense on most downs and distances.

The big plays (15+ yards) that lead to points more often than not come against single-high safeties in high percentages.

I’d like to see an analytics chart on defnseive formations vs. big plays surrendered.

 

Sounds good. Please post when you get that done.