LB Nick Herbig and the Steelers have agreed on a four-year, $100 million

Why do you think he chose 3 years?

I think it's because choosing 3 years means Watt's ahead in basically everything. That's why I asked the two questions at the end of the post you quoted. And if you go by total plays (not rate stats), then it's Highsmith he's shortchanging.

For example, if he picks last year Highsmith has 2.5 more sacks, 5 more TFL, 13 more solo tackles, and only 5 fewer combined tackles. Wat still has more FFs and INTs. But Highsmith looks a lot better in the comparison if he only looks at last year.

Herbig relative to Watt in 2025. ~ 200 fewer snaps. 0.5 more snaps. 3 more TFL. 1 fewer INT (28 more INT yards, but the pick is more important than the run back IMO). Same FFs. 2 fewer solo tackles. 23 fewer combined. 1 fewer FR.

If he picks 2 years ago Watt is probably still ahead in most things, but it's not nearly as lopsided. Especially when compared to Highsmith.

And (very sadly), I don't think anyone thinks there's any chance that Watt ever has a season like 23 again. I think we're mostly just hoping that he can get back to '24 levels instead of continuing to drop his sack total by 40% for the 3rd year in a row.

How is it reasonable to compare Watt's 2023 stats to Herbig's 2023 stats? Herbig played 191 snaps in 2023. Watt played 931. Watt was a perennial DPOY candidate. Herbig was a rookie that few believed could be an edge rusher. Herbig's play in 2023 has almost nothing to do with his contract.

Given the difference in snap counts (610 vs 812), it probably only on the edge of reasonable to compare Herbig's 2025 stats to Watt's. Even though Herbig delivered a similar number of impact plays as Watt did (FF, INTs, Sks).

 

Amazing how one nice polite agreeable response can morph into an illogical unrelated whine

I should know better

 

Once again, Herbig has had a 3-year career. Leaving out a year or two would be cherry picking IMO. Those of us who watched the games and follow the team know about all the circumstances of his playing time and his role with the team.

 

He's still going.

 

I get the steelers are paying a premium here, but I do not understand how fellow steeler fans can watch these games and then tell me they are upset about this deal. Last season, I'd argue he was one of our 2-3 most impactful defensive players on a per down basis and I wouldn't argue with you if you said he was number 1. I have no hesitation about this deal.

 

So you don't see any problem with trying to hide the fact that Watt has been declining hard (40% reduction in sacks from year 1 to year 2 and then another 40% reduction from year 2 to year 3) by adding 2023 totals to 2024 and 2025 even though the production was wildly different?

Let's say we took the average season for each of these guys in this dataset.

How do you think that average would compare to the performance they'll have over the next 4 years? That's what matters re: the Herbig contract. Because teams should pay players based on what we expect them to deliver over the next contract. Not for what they delivered in the previous contract.

If you think he's writing a twitter post to people who "know about all the circumstances" here, why do you think he'd even post this? The information is basically useless when related to Herbig's contract.

My guess is that if you asked the casual fan / Twitter user about the number of impact plays between TJ Watt and Nick Herbig, most would ask you who Herbig is. Few would tell you they were similarly impactful despite Watt having ~ 200 more snaps.

 

Would love to see a paystub for some of these players. I'm assuming they get paid once a month. The deductions must be huge. Their union dues probably as much as low wage workers make a month.

Herbig getting roughly 25 million a year. Just a guess but after all the deductions his net maybe half that? Imagine clearing a million a month. That is one hell of a monthly paycheck.

 

I hope this is because of that and not because he is unhappy....

 

That you have to qualify it with "per down basis" is the problem. Herbig still has to prove he can be impactful as a starter. He has to prove his body will hold up.

 

An interesting article here about why Highsmith "will" really "might" get traded before the beginning of the season.
https://steelersdepot.com/2026/06/fittipaldo-predicts-alex-highsmith-trade-before-2026-season/

1) He now makes significantly less than Herbig. They kind of do some apples to organes comparisons here talking about AH's base salary and APY for Watt (and Herbig). But Herbig's APY is $25mm and Highsmith's is $17. While there are 3 years of cap inflation between the two, that might be hard for Highsmith to stomach on a personal level. This is one of the things I tend not to think about re: football and contract value. But it's typically something the Steelers really value. Where no one made more than Cam for a long time.

2) AH's trade value is going to be pretty high given his production to cap hit (I have the numbers for this on page 1 of this thread). To me, that's why we should keep him. But if someone wants to give us a very high pick for him, I'd be all for it.

 

At this point, I don't see the point of trading any of the three edge rushers unless they are getting at least a second-round pick.

 

Hmmm
So even though we changed HCs we are still making sure we are spending on the D. Hmmm

 

This. All players have down years.
Just in the last few years Heyward had one, and many wanted him gone like you said, and now they have disappeared, or act like they didn't say that, and Boz is another that had a down year, and many wanted him gone, and now you can't find them. All players have down years.

 

All I care about is them signing JPJ.

 

Boswell was only 31 when he had his down season. That is young for a kicker, so his age wasn't a factor.

Edge rushers, on the other hand, don't tend to age well. Watt was breaking down at the end of the 2024 season, which makes 2025 look more like the continuation of a trend than an outlier.

 

So I guess all people are the same??
Also you seem to forget that all of this , and more was said about both Heyward, and Boz, and now those people are silent. I'm not going to say for sure Watt will be better, but I will wait, and see, and not base something on because a Guy after a 18 game season started slowing down at the end of that season, or that the next year he didn't have a off season.
Again 7 sacks , 3 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 ints, 8 pass defense in 14 games is not a terrible season, especially for a down year.
I unlike everyone that knows for a fact he's done, I would like to wait, and see.

 

I think our problem is that we have been pretty bad at drafting offensive players.

IMO the job of the GM is to acquire good players and retain good players.

Sadly, we've had far too few good players to try to retain on offense. Because we haven't generally been good at acquiring them.

 

The thing is that because of who he was 2024 was the down year for "TJ Mother-f'n-Watt".

Then 2025 was worse.

If he bounces back to his 2024, that's better than 2025. But it would still be disappointing for who he is and how he's getting compensated.

 

a few things here:

1) if he maintained his current production over a full year as a starter, he’d be asking for 40+ million a year

2) both watt and Highsmith have been banged up enough that it’s fair to question whether they can hold up as full time starters over the course of an nfl year so this is a non issue to me

 

I'm assuming he chose three years because that's all Herbig has played so far.

 

Agreed, but it's funny how many things that were blamed on Tomlin keep happening, and

Unlike many, I don't agree with 2024 being a down year, it was a different year, that's my problem with it. 2025 was a down year. Hell , and if You really look at it 2022 was his real down year he only had 5 sacks in 10 games. Only difference then, and now is he was younger then, and now people are so sure the age will be a factor, and it might, but I choose to wait, and see, just like I did for Heyward, and Boz

 

I don't think Lauten would lie for a player absence.

 

Freaking sign JPJ. I won't rest easy until he's signed

 

Herbig is the first non-QB who never was a full-time starter to get a 100-million-dollar contract.