What am I missing regarding Nick Herbig?

Funny that some folks think running a football team is the same as running any other organization. It isn't. They also don't seem to understand the need to balance talent and character. Chuck Noll got rid of some players with character issues, but managed others due to their talent level. Jimmy Johnson was another example of this, but he admitted it. He had different rules for his star players than everyone else. Both built dynasties that way.

Tomlin knew how to do that at one point in his career. That is how he got so many elite seasons out of Antonio Brown. For whatever reason, he lost his ability and/or desire to do so in recent years and it cost the team talent. That is what happened with Pickens. Some folks here like talking about the negative impact he had on the team, but they provide no actual evidence of it. The team trading him is not evidence. I'm not saying that I can't see how his attitude would have hurt the team, but just saying it happened without backing up that claim is a load of crap.

It's like Yankees fans who go on and on about Derek Jeter's leadership qualities, but they can't give a single example of how his leadership helped his team. He was on teams that won and didn't get himself in any trouble, so they say he as a great leader. They talk about intangibles because they know it is hard to make them back it up.

Watt has been a great Steeler, but putting aside sentiment to do what is best for the organization is how you build winners. The Steelers didn't do that with Watt. They set the team back by giving a declining player a ridiculous contract when they likely could have gotten a first-round pick for him. I understand that having leaders matters, but you don't make a guy the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league because he's good in the locker room.

Maybe some folks are letting sentimentality and attachment to a great player cloud their judgement. Maybe they just can't stand anyone criticizing the Steelers' decisions. Maybe it is a bit of both. They are entitled to those opinions, even if they are choosing emotion over intellect, but it would help if they showed a little more respect for those who disagree with them.

 

The Dunning–Kruger effect is the tendency of people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive assessments of this ability. This is often seen as a cognitive bias, that is, a systematic tendency to engage in erroneous forms of thinking and judging. In the case of the Dunning–Kruger effect, the systematic error concerns people with low skill in a specific area trying to evaluate their competence within this area and their tendency to greatly overestimate their competence.

Or to dumb this down



Amazing how easy it is to pull a puppets string and make them wave here I am I see it coming quickly.

 

Folks rely on logical fallacies because their logic fails.

 

I know what you are getting at but I dont think that's how logical fallacies work.

 

So in the giant professional football version of chicken how do you decide when to flinch? In an earlier reply you stated that the time to trade Watt was before his most recent extension when his play was at a peak, his value was high, and teams were interested in a trade. How do you close the door on a player that has that going for them and the team when you are trying to win games and championships? How does a team balance long term goals and short term success "flinching" before running headfirst into another car? Then there was the Pickens example which features lots of whataboutism but doesn't address the harsh realities that Pickens time with tge team brings. Yes he was an otherworldly talent when made part of the focal point of the offense. He was the top reciever on the team, made combat catches that were amazing and helped secure wins. He was also immature, selfish, would give up on any play he chose to when not the focal point and disruptive when he was on the sideline and felt he was being snubbed. The fact that DJ was exhibiting similar behavior isn't on Pickens but it did help things. Yes Tomlin was able to keep AB mostly in check until after Dan passed and AB became untethered. None of us are privy to what went on in Tomlin's head so maybe he was just tired from AB and didn't want another go around with Pickens. Maybe they honestly thought it was time to flinch one example of waiting to long, one example of going early. It's an interesting study in management and team building theory.

To the larger point that you two are making I suggest pistols at dawn, 40 paces.

 

Of course, I was oversimplifying for the sake of the turn of phrase. The point is that some folks are relying on logical fallacies such as ad hominem arguments to try to cover for the weakness of their arguments.

 

Watt's play wasn't at its peak. He was already well into his decline in 2024. If they really could get a first-round pick rather than massively overpay Watt, that would have made the team much better off for 2025 and beyond.

Assuming the Steelers were never going to keep both Pickens and Metcalf, they could have retained their second-round pick in 2025 and employed the better receiver this past season and in 2026. Also, it was Metcalf, not Pickens, who tangibly hurt his team due to his immaturity and selfishness.

The Steelers could have had a lot more cap room to spend, a second first-round pick, their second-round pick, and the better receiver to build their 2025 roster. They could still have those two extra premium draft picks to help build team going forward.

I loved watching Watt play when he was an elite player, but I understand that he isn't that player any more and I saw that coming a year ago.

 

Watt's play might not have been at his peak but it was at a peak. Comparables with other outside pass rushing linebackers would suggest he was still above most of them. That fact being born out by leading every measurable statistical category except the new made up one by PFF that has become the end all and be all of defensive stats and saw Garrett win over Watt in the 24 DPOY voting. So even with his less than personal peak numbers how do you justify trading away that potential for a draft pick and a player that will be an after thought? This is why I call it magic beans because most fans and analysts think trading a known for an unknown is a sure thing and it isn't especially in a lottery system.

I can't speak to what they planned on doing heading into the 2025 season if they intended to have Pickens and Metcalf or if they really did make the decision to walk away from Pickens once the trade for DK was made. I'd cast the move like you do as a mistake, I'd have waited and tagged him while forcing him to sit and take it if he was mad and pouty but I also wouldn't have given him the AB treatment either.

That Metcalf hurt the team by losing his composure and getting suspended has no bearing on the Pickens trade or his time with the Steelers other than to show he hurt the team as well. The case can be made that Pickens hurt the team and likely cost games by his attitude and play in those games and like I said also strong evidence that his contributions won games and his attitude and effort were part of that. All things can be true. Metcalf hurt the team by getting suspended and missing time when needed that cost them the game. Pickens attitude and performance cost them plays and potentially games. Pickens attitude and performance won them games. Sorry lost were I was going with this. If it comes back to me Ill add an edit note.

 

You are mixing up seasons. Watt was robbed of DPOY in 2023, not 2024. His play had already declined significantly in 2024, with his production nearly disappearing during the team's late-season collapse.

That is exactly my point with Metcalf, that he also did stupid, immature stuff to hurt the team.

 

Yes, the second half of 2024 was a GIANT, RED, FLASHING sign. He was invisible. We hoped it was due to coming back from injury, maybe too soon, but 2025 put to rest it was just a bad few games as he was, at best, an average DE/OLB in 2025. If you base it on pay, he was near the bottom of the league in DE/OLB value (severe negative net value).

Most of us cringed when we heard the extension. Two years too long and about $40 million in guaranteed pay too high. It was a BAD call by either Khan or Rooney or both. I think Rooney suffers from the fallacy of fan fallout. He believes there are a few players (and unfortunately head coach) that if you simply don't resign them or you trade them, fans will cancel their season tickets. I honestly believe Rooney knew it was an awful deal but if he didn't make it he'd lose even more millions in revenue. I hope he's not that ignorant, dumb, silly, but he may well be.

 

In a down year last year with 14 games played for the regular season, Watt had , 2 ints, 8 passes defended ,3 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 7 sacks, is a great teammate, and isn't even the top 10 highest paid D player. Tell me again how this is so bad.

 

Huh? Who are the 10 defensive players making more money than Watt in 2026?

Things change fast, but no way those numbers are worth over $40 million per season.

This was the list NFL.com posted when Anderson signed his deal in April.

 

This effect is often seen during the NFL Drafr Cycle. Never ceases to surprise either. It has always been prevalent but these past five years?! It has really taken off.

 

Answer; It isn't.


People are equivocating Myles Garrett vs TJ Watt because "reasons". Only for the 150th Novemdecillitoh time though, here is the correct and single verifiable truth. Myles Garrett is a 4-3 DE; built for that sole purpose. TJ Watt is a 3-4 Rush Backer; a completely different position for a completely different purpose.


They are not the same.

 

It sure seemed like there was a bigger outcry over Heyward wanting more money than over Watt's extension. Maybe I'm misremembering?

 

I don't have the list, but You can look it up. I looked up top 10 biggest contracts for Defensive players in the NFL now, and He wasn't in the top 10

 

Exactly

 

Also don't forget how they said Heyward was done, and we've gotten two good years from him since.