What am I missing regarding Nick Herbig?

I feel like a crazy person hearing Steelers media discuss Nick Herbig. He is consistently discussed as one of the guys that will most likely not get a contract extension. I understand the complexity of the situation here, but this is one of the three most impactful defenders on our team on a per snap basis and an ascending pass rusher that could be one of the best in the league.

Beyond that, the steelers have no shot of winning a championship within the next two years. Herbig fits our timeline far better than Watt or even Highsmith does. If we need to move off of one of them to make sure Herbig signs with us long-term--so be it...the cost is the cost. This guy is an absolute stud--I'd think it would be a monumental mistake to lose him.

Yet, often times, Herbig is often the one that's talked about as the one that will get away. In my mind, him and JPJ should be priorities and cornerstones for this defense moving forward. If we lose this guy, it would be another example of the Steelers truly having no ability to properly understand where they are in the league pecking order and a realistic timeline.

What am I missing? Am I overvaluing Herbig?

 

I don't think you're overvaluing him at all. The issue is they've already invested 60m+ in edge a year and it's illogical to add another 25m per year to that tally. I'd personally offload TJ, and keep Herbig and Highsmith, but unfortunately when it comes to the business side of things, Herbig is the odd man out.

 

They don't have long-term money tied up in the QB position, and they have aging stars who will be off the books soon enough. Given this context, they'd be demonstrating true incompetence if they lost him.

 

It doesn't make any logical sense to pay the position group 85m dollars. Like I said, I'd offload TJ to make sogning him possible. Yes guys like Heyward, DK and Ramsey will be off the books soon; however, that money will be offset by guys like Frazier, JPJ, Benton(?), and others these next couple of offseasons.

 

I think Herbig should be the one we keep. Its either out with Watt or Highsmith. A contract for Herbig before the season means one of the two others is definitely gone after the season. I understand wanting to give TJ a chance to rebound, but he's getting there in age to where there isn't a ton of time left even if he comes back strong. Highsmith has been oft injured but is effective when on the field. There aren't many easy answers here.

 

My solution is to offload Watt. I'm just looking at this with the Steelers mindset, which i feel has been very flawed post Big Ben.

 

Herbig wants to be a starter if Highsmith and Watt are returning in 2027, I doubt Herbig will re-sign with the Steelers.

 

Have we really seen Herbig be able to set the edge? I like Herbig, provides much energy/production in playing time
he has been given. We have really never seen him play prolonged periods of time. What would this look like?

 

You are missing the key point in Highsmith status is 2027. The Steelers may be trying to unload him and I hope they do a 4th or 5th round pick and some teams pick up his cap #.

I view Highsmith as a very good but not excellent or elite type of player when he is healthy.

 

Herbig and Sawyer could be a nice future OLB tandem if Steelers stick with 3-4. I wish they would go 4-3... easier to find NCAA, NFL ready players for that alignment.

 

We're gonna lose either Highsmith or Herbig next off season..... there's absolutely no way we can pay both of them big money with TJ Watt's contract also in the fold..... the only way we get an immediate return after the season is to, 1. trade Highsmith for an immediate draftvpick and then extend Herbig... option 2. let Herbig go in free agency and take a comp pick in '28....
If we take option 1, we'll have a clear picture of which defenses need it most and make a pitch..... of course, things will be a bit murky here because the edge class in the next draft is fairly strong, so we may need to find a team in a very desperate situation

 

He has started 11 games and the results have been mixed. He makes spectacular plays, but doesn't create pressure as consistently as Highsmith. He doesn't set the edge well at all.

 

In other words, he's a good pass rusher... but not so good at stopping the run. Gotta be able to do both in order to be an effective OLB in the 3-4.

 

You need two people to want to sign a contract...unless it's a tag, which is going to be very expensive for an edge rusher.

He's going to be the 3rd edge with the best case scenario probably being something like even splitting with the 2nd edge.

Which means we can't really pay him like a starter.

But he'd almost certainly be a starter on another team. So he must know that he can make more elsewhere. And not only would he make more in the present, he'd get more playing time. So if he believes in himself, he'd think that his next contract after this one would be even bigger.

Football wise, the best thing would probably be to trade Watt and roll with Highsmith (our best edge rusher last year) and Herbig. But that's not how the Steelers operate IMO. For the same reason we signed Watt to a huge contract last time. We value the "culture" and having stars stick around over trading guys early to better manage assets.

I agree with you about our competitive window being far away so making decisions to prioritize the medium term over the long term would be better for us. But the guy who owns the team (and sets the business model) is all about not playing meaningless regular season games. And trading away the guy who was basically the only reason to watch the team for half a decade isn't something I think he'll ever do (unless maybe Watt demands it).

 

PFF certainly not the end all be all for these type of discussions but PFF had him making a big jump in run defense last year (21st overall edge defender against the run)

 

Unfortunately, I think you're right and its made being a fan of this team wildly frustrating the past decade

 

I have been waiting for Herbig to put on 15 pounds of muscle while trying to keep his quickness.

Maybe he just can't get bigger and holding up against the run is always going to be a battle. He has to win with explosion and quickness.

He is a playmaker, no doubt, but his slender build may always prevent him from being a consistently dominant player that can hold up against big men. If he isn't bigger and stronger this season, it most likely won't happen without cheating.

 

They're not gonna offload anybody this off-season, especially with Rodgers re-signing and not wanting to ruffle his feathers. If they want to keep Herbig and commit to him as a starter, and Herbig wants to stay, then there's nothing stopping the Steelers from making that happen. They're not in cap hell and can move assets if needed. If he takes a leap this year and they see him as a full time starter, they'll make it happen.

 

No your not.

Watt needs a bounce back. He got that monster contract because Rooney II want him to be a "One Helmet Guy"

I wonder if he has another not Watt type year if they might look to move him and unload some of that contract.

Losing Herbig would not be a smart play. He is the most dangerous pass rusher on the team now.

I do feel he will have to play out the season to get starter money.

Watt will be 32 in October, Highsmith will be 29 in August. Herbig is 24 will be 25 in November.