What are Reasonable Expectations for Mike McCarthy in year one with the Steelers?

The Steelers would be in a much better position now if they had started a full rebuild in 2022 after Roethlisberger's retirement instead of trying to have the best possible season each year, even though the team's ceiling was very low.

They also rushed to draft a QB in the first round in 2022, and that didn't help.

Of course, my 5-12 prediction is a bit too low, especially since we're going to play against the very weak NFC South, so our record could be inflated because of that, like in 2022 when the Steelers went 4-0 against the NFC South in a 9-8 season.

 

"What are Reasonable Expectations for Mike McCarthy in year one with the Steelers?"

McCarthy is stepping into a franchise that has gone a little stale.
The roster isn't horrible, but it is not great either.
The worst issue is QB for the 5th year.

I think anything more than 6 wins is a bonus this year. (as of this moment)

Wild Cards:
- If one of the QB's (Howard, Allar or even Mason) prospers in this new system.

 

Another positive for MM. He wins in his divisions.

NFCE; 0.666%
NFCN; 0.702%

 

they couldve had Jordan Love or Hurts in 2020 if they didnt trade their first round pick for Minkah. Thats preparing for the future. Thats just after Ben hurt his elbow in 2019. That was the beginning of the end for him.

 

They actually could have Hurts in the second round. They passed on him to take Chase Claypool.

 

Drafting a QB early would have been an admission that an era was over. Rooney has a very hard time with moving on from the known and familiar. This was evident with both his QB and his HC. Couldn't bring himself to make a change.

 

Only six wins? That’s the ceiling you’re giving Pittsburgh? Sorry, but P.T. Barnum said it best. There’s a sucker born every minute. I’d love to find someone willing to actually bet on that.

 

Operative words, Joel.... "as of this moment" (Apr 27.)
Since then, the team is starting to take shape as is the competition.
We have a schedule now.

We have the toughest projected schedule in our division.
Overall strength of schedule we rank from 14th to 18th.

Our current projection is 7.5/8.5 wins, about where I would say now.

Let's have a way too early look and guess.

• Week 1 — Sep 13: vs. Atlanta Falcons — We can beat Atlanta, especially at home.
• Week 2 — Sep 20: at New England Patriots — We'll lose this one.
• Week 3 — Sep 27: vs. Cincinnati Bengals — Burrows says this is the most talent the Bengals have had. I think we'll split and this is a win.
• Week 4 — Oct 1: at Cleveland Browns — We should sweep the Browns.
• Week 5 — Oct 11: vs. Indianapolis Colts — This is at home, maybe a win.
• Week 6 — Oct 18: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — I think Tampa beats us pretty good.
• Week 7 — Oct 25: vs. New Orleans Saints — Saints are terrible. A win.
• Week 8 — Nov 1: vs. Cleveland Browns — Win
• Week 9 — BYE.
• Week 10 — Nov 15: at Cincinnati Bengals — Lose this one.
• Week 11 — Nov 22: at Philadelphia Eagles — Lose this one.
• Week 12 — Nov 27: vs. Denver Broncos — A tough loss.
• Week 13 — Dec 6: vs. Houston Texans — A skid.......
• Week 14 — Dec 14: at Jacksonville Jaguars — Skid continues
• Week 15 — Dec 20: vs. Baltimore Ravens — Trauma in Pittsburgh... Loss.
• Week 16 — Dec 24–28 (TBD): vs. Carolina Panthers - Finally a Win.
• Week 17 — Jan 3: at Tennessee Titans — 1:00 PM. Can be a win.
• Week 18 — Jan 9–10 (TBD): at Baltimore Ravens — Maybe a split..

If they can get to the bye at 7-1, that momentum will carry.
But if they go 5-3, it could be tough sledding.

After the Bye, things are tough and we will see what the Steelers are made of.
If they win 5 out of that 9, we have something.
I could easily see going 2-7

We have to see preseason, and the first few games to really dial in what this era has on the sidelines..

 

after that season ending injury in 2019 the Ben era was over. Its too bad they didnt act on it. Wed be better off today.

 

Not even sure the first month of football will tell us much. There will be so much mixing & shuffling to see who fits where. And the real question some of us have is how far will Rodgers go before he runs out of gas. As has been said, he didn't look all that good in the last month of the season. QB2 could well be in the mix by that time.

 

Or we would have drafted a few more Qbs that didn't work. I laugh at this belief that all it takes is take a Qb high in the 1st round, and You got a great qb. Lot of teams out there are saying....hmmm.....why didn't we think of that.

 

Love and Hurts were there for the taking. you do your homework and draft a Qb in the first or second round if your serious about finding Bens successor. Steelers kind of went at it half assed (MR).

 

Hurts is a ok Qb with great legs, and on a great team.
I have yet to see what everyone sees in Love. I think he's the most overhyped Qb in the NFL.

 

Considering this squad is going to go as far as Aaron will take them, I just want to see development of the OL and young pillars on defense. If Aaron looks his age more often than not, I expect our first losing season in 20+ years; if Aaron outperforms his age, we can win a playoff game or two. Reality will probably be somewhere in the middle.

 

GMF show on NFL Network predicted 10-7 this morning for Steelers in 2026 with Rodgers at QB. Sounds about right.

 

FWIW, I think drafting Kenny was an attempt at a big rebuild. It just failed because we missed on the QB (there wasn't a good QB to be had that draft).

I don't think we'll ever tank to rebuild while a Rooney owns the team. And while treading water is frustrating, I'm glad we didn't burn it to the ground. Even that usually doesn't work. And I think it's often difficult to build back up to any semblance of competitiveness (is that a word?) when you do that.

I don't mind the idea of trying to keep the culture while hoping to get an opportunity to land a good QB.

But I do wish that "not tanking" included focusing more on the medium term and letting younger guys try (even if they fail).

I guess the other side of this coin is that we really have gotten very good value for the QBs we brought in over the last couple seasons.

 

I think I'd predict 9 wins.

But I think we're way more likely to get 7 wins (2 under) than 11 wins (2 over).

I think there's probably a bias toward always picking 9-10 wins for the Steelers.

Who knows what will happen with a new staff? I'd imagine that MM will be working under the same mission statement as MT (don't play meaningless regular season games). But Tomlin was basically the perfect coach for what Rooney wants. McCarthy may not be able to deliver the same results in essentially the same situation. We'll see.

 

That's been kinda my mindset for these past 3 offseasons. Yeah, sure, offloading talent could result in 4-6 win seasons for a season or two, but they could also overachieve and win 8-9 games in that process. Tanking gets players hurt. Complete rebuilds are focused on development and building towards the next SB roster. The way I see it, if guys aren't going to be on a potential SB run 3 years from now, then why tf are they here today? If this defense was akin to 2019-2021 then it makes total sense to think they can make a SB run this year. This stagnation these past 4 seasons sucks because there's no long-term plan in place and it's just tunnel vision for the next 10-6/ first round exit of a season ahead of us.

 

If Steelers finish 10-7 and lose a 1st round Playoff game for the 4th straight year, they should have ask Mike to stay

 

The pre-season isn't over and my official season call will be then ( I have been off by only a game before and some years have called it 100% correctly ), but I see something is happening with the Steelers.

Our WR's, and RB's have been upgraded.

We have a plan at QB. Heavy draft investment draft investments went to the OL.

Our coaching staff under the boat anchor of Tomlin and his clowns at OC and DC are gone.

Players are up for 2026. While we have not put the pads on yet in live drills, things are clicking in mini camp.

Our DB's have been significantly upgraded too.

Right now I see 11 wins!

The key unknown is our win projected 2026 win total according to Las Vegas odds turned into a positive. Meaning Rodgrers is playing in 2026.

I have not seen the players or the coaching staff this excited about mini camp for years. Think about that. In words and body language.

Many 2025 question marks have been answered with exclamation points.

Leave the gloom and doom to media types like Madden.

The schedule I look at it as thus:


How many top 8 teams ( the final 8 ) or bottom dwellers teams who drafted with the first 8 picks do we play? These are the hard and the easy games on paper.

The teams that went 7-10 to 9-8 are the hardest calls. We are generally better than those teams.

 

LoL

 

IIRC, I think both Rooney and Omar said they asked Mike to stay.