2025 Passing Success Rates

Graphic showing passing success rates in 2025 for all QBs with at least 90 pass attempts. Just scanning the color scales it quickly shows who was on their game last year.

[I used PFR's definition of 'success': 40% of line to gain on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and first downs on 3rd or 4th down]

 

Brock Purdy....most successful QB in the NFL in 2025?

Really surprising to see the third down success rate. It seems to indicate that converting 1 in 3 or 2 in 5 passing third downs is about the going rate. I expected that number to be much higher.

 

Burrow killing it on 3rd down. Guess when you have two elite WRs it makes a difference. OTOH, LJ on third down

 

The more I look at the chart, the more I think that there are a lot expectations and assumptions to question.

Another is that by success % Tua is a high end QB. We know that is not true....so what is the chart not capturing?

But Burrow on third down is statistically a wild outlier. Maybe all those "blown" coverages are not just a Steelers issues and the Bengals wideouts are really good?

 

No it's Tomlins fault. He was so bad it carried for the other teams.

 

If you average the downs, Tua is actually 18th. Not exactly high end. Also, 4th down is a little deceiving since there are so few attempts that making them can distort the averages.

Added last column average:

 

That is really cool. Thanks for pulling this together.

Getting harder and harder to defend my faith in Trevor Lawrence.

And to ATTEMPT to merge thoughts in this thread with thoughts in a draft thread about passing on Hurts....looking at success % that wasn't a bad call. Guy wins a ton of football games and has made some big throws on the biggest of stages...but he also seems to struggle with the routine sometimes.

 

Lawrence's first year with a real offensive HC. He improved some.

 

He has already been with some pretty good offensive minds. Could it be its just slowing down for him, or maybe a few additions they made later last year???
You would think that the Qb that almost every so called draft guy said was a for freaking sure , once in a generation Qb wouldn't need some special coaching. I mean I can think of a lot of Qbs that weren't ever considered in his category, and that has done far better without all that.

 

What's crazy is you hear this a lot about Qbs that end up failing. They are awesome at the hard, big time highlight stuff, but bad at the so called routine stuff.

 

i'd like to see the amount of attempts for each of those guys to come up with those percentages. where is mason rudolph? how many starts are they factoring in those numbers?

 

Lawrence had been great in the second half last season...Baker Mayfield had also his best season ever in 2024 under Coan as OC

 

The steelers face Flacco in the 2 games against the bengals,not Burrow.The only win for Flacco with the bengals was against the steelers.At least it did not happen twice since the steelers had dominate the second matchup

 

per the OP, min. 90 pass attempts. Rudolph didn't meet that threshold.

(adding pass attempts for each down would only make it more of an eye chart than it already is)

 

Wondering how Lawrence will look going forward with an actual offensive HC. He was throwing downfield under Coen. He hasn't had the smoothest path to start his career.

 

he had 228 pass att. in tenn. purdy had 284. burrow had 259. cousins 269.

 

???

The chart is 2025 data.

 

Nevermind.

 

Good chart. Lamar is very low on 3rd down.