Can't Even Get Rd1 Right

So called experts... including AI:

 

I see where Lemon wasn't supposed to go until pick 25 with CHI according to AI. PHI obviously panicked and reached...

 

And yet all of the red is the case for the chronic whiners who can’t think on their own

 

The mocks didn't even have Love going in the first round, that's absurd.

 

That's just it. When I'm looking at players, I don't care what teams the players go to.

All I care about is how good I feel a player is, which players are on the board when the Steelers pick, and the team's needs. That's it.

Obviously, I hope certain players drop so the team has a chance to draft a player I think is a difference-maker, but you can only worry about what you control.

 

This 100%.
I never had a Wr in the 1st for us. I had 3 different LT, and 2 different safeties . It just happens to be we didn't pick any of them in the 1st. LoL. So I end up hoping to be wrong, and the guys I wanted end up sucking, and the guy we got ends up being awesome.

 

All depends if
Lemon isn’t a Lemon

 

Interesting
That a division rival would trade up with another division rival

 

Bills and Patriots did the same.

 

I think the steelers got it right this time. Iheanachor grew up playing soccer so he has good footwork, something our other tackles may not be as good at. Just a little key thing that i think will be big.

 

Every year, the mock drafters ignore history. There is always an OT run. QBs get over-drafted. And their is one other position that gets "hot" in round one and pushes guys up. Every single draft those things happen. Then everyone gets surprised that they happened.

Mock drafters seem to, in general, not consider tiers of players at position groups. I have heard people that claim to know state that NFL teams do. So if the draft pool is about (use a Steelers specific hypothetical) to drop a tier at OT but the WR pool is not; then you pick tackle. All I am trying to say is that the mock drafts I read get too caught on individual players rather than looking at the overall class at the various position groups.

Another example is the pass rusher the Cowboys drafted. He might not be "worth" a first round pick as many predicted. But, from what I have read, he was the last "freaky" athlete at pass rusher in a class with only a few. Easy to see how a team that is desperate for pass rush help feels it is time to pull the trigger.

 

Technically, the mocks and the A.I. only got 1 right.... everyone and their mother knew Mendoza would go #1. That's like the free block on a bingo board

 

That's why when I used to do a list of players that should be targeted by the team in the draft, it isn't a list of the top 5 players at each position. It takes into account that the team only gets a couple high draft picks, so they can only draft one or two of those top 5 at a position. I like to list guys that I think are being undervalued that can be taken later in the draft that I believe may be as good or better than players that will be taken ahead of them.

Usually, there are a couple players at a position that are clearly more talented than the rest of the group. Then, after those top couple players at that position are off the board, there are times that at one position, there are like five players that are rated pretty much identically. If that's the case, then why take one when you pick if you can trade back and pick up a draft pick and get a player that you rated exactly the same later in the draft. Then you pay that draft pick less money for being slotted later in the draft, and you got an additional draft pick to use.

I would list a couple players that are considered like the #14 LB and the #15 EDGE, and people would just say they want one of the top 2 or 3 at the position. Then when you tell them that the team doesn't have seven second-round picks to draft multiple highly rated players at several positions, they don't even seem to understand. Naming players to target in the fourth, fifth, and sixth rounds isn't exciting to most people, so they dismiss it.

Identifying the diamonds in the rough is probably the most satisfying thing about evaluating players. Back in the day I really pushed for Hargrave before the media started getting it out there that he was climbing on the boards of every team in the NFL. He still didn't go as high as his talent level should have dictated because they were afraid of the level of competition.

Myself and Elgonzo both told everyone that we really liked Dotson, that he was a mauler, and that he was a steal at that point of the draft. He didn't work out with the Steelers, but he turned into an All-Pro with the Rams.

I'm sure most people have had a guy that they really liked that became better than the "experts" predicted.

Of course, I'm wrong a fair amount of the time as well. As is anyone that evaluates players. This isn't an exact science.

 

This was my argument as well. A panic move would have been if they had become fixated on drafting a receiver because they thought that Lemon was falling in their lap, and moved on to the next WR on the list. Instead they moved off of Lemon and to a tackle, which tells me that they saw the need for tackle, and value of Iheanachor above the need for receiver and value of Boston/Concepcion/Cooper.

 

This is 100%, and the argument that you never seem to hear in the draft. You'll always hear the ridiculous argument of "the Steelers reached for the sixth tackle at 21 instead of getting the fourth receiver. The smart question is where did the Steelers have Max among the other tackles? Did they rate him closer to the top 5? Or was he further down close to Markell Bell (who was chosen after the round 2 pick but before Steelers' first round three pick)?

Then do the same with Bernard. Did the Steelers have him as a huge drop off from Lemon/Concepcion/Cooper/Stribling/Boston? If he wasn't then waiting for him, even trading up, was a good move. If they considered Iheanachor/Bernard wasn't as highly valued then it was a mistake. From what I've seen, and saw before, I think the Steelers are happier than if they went WR/OT. Even though IIRC, Bell was the first player brought in for a top 30 visit.

 

Experts are always bad at this.

And the AI is likely trained on the data from the supposed experts.

My guess is that the better way to train the AI (and maybe some would do this) would be to scrap a bunch of data from team specific blogs and sites like this.

They'll get way more data that way.

And the data they'd get would be team specific. Instead of talking head types that try to do the entire draft with only a shallow understanding of all the teams.

It sounds like it kind of gets screwed up every year. But Alex on the Terrible Podcast, tries to do a mock draft every year. And the original set up is what I think would be best. Get a blogger type from each team to represent that team. But it seems like they never got enough people and you'd always have some idiot doing stupid stuff to screw it all up.

Also...pretty much any prediction about the draft is going to go out the window once the first trade happens. It's just too hard to predict trades.

 

Can't agree with this more.

 

Did they?. I didn't even notice.

 

Browns getting both Conception and Boston is a coup. Now sit back and watch that team wastes both of their careers

 

Still doesn’t make sense

 

Are they going to throw the ball to each other?
Oops my bad
They have the all pro Sanders at qb

 

No one is good at it