TJ Watt

Good luck with that I don't think the Steelers could get a first round pick for any of their edge rushers.

 

No, unfortunately the Metcalf deal is not worse than TJ's was considering the output. DK might've underperformed, but he wasn't far off of what he did for most of his career. He's roughly 900-1000 yards a year and 7-8 TD's. He would've gotten that if he played all 17 games. Guys that get that are generally worth $25 million a year (an overpay, but maybe 25% overpay). Guys that get 7 sacks a year are worth half of what we pay TJ.

Now, we can't just overreact and can TJ after the first bad year he's had. I am willing to give him a chance to bounce back... but he looked different this year and not in a good way. He struggled to win consistently and would often get washed out even in 1 on 1's. He still had the "TJ Factor" of turning the ball over (which is truly what made him special in his prime), but he disappeared hard for long stretches. Again, I hope it was just a bad stretch or a lingering injury we didn't know about, but if we get another 6-8 sack year out of him... we are just overpaying massively for the player.

 

Yes it is.

$31,000,000 on the cap for 900-1,000 yard getting suspended, drawing numerous bad flags, and fighting with a fan? And let's not forget he cost us a 2nd round pick! OUCH.

We should have kept Pickens for a much cheaper amount in 2025 and superior production!

But Tomlin wanted him gone. At least I think so...



Watt did not play up to standard last year because he was not 100%. But I think we should give him another chance based on his 2022, 2023, and 2024 performances where he was amazing and worth the money spent.

If the Steelers were to move him, a post-June 1 trade in 2026 would provide $32 million in cap savings, making it a viable move for the team's cap management. Someone can check on this to see if that's accurate. I am okay with that provided we get at least a 1st, and 2nd round pick.

Khan has fielded offers I suppose. He is good at making trades, and lousy and spending cap $ on non Steeler free agents.


Exampes are Queen and Metcalf.


https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/pittsburgh-steelers

 

You're just going to forget about the dead cap hit with trading Watt, no team is dumb enough to trade a first round pick for Watt.

 

There are quite a few dumb teams. The Browns come to mind.

 

Watt is about to be 32 years old, and he wasn't dominating before he got injured last year. They won't get good value for him in a trade and it's not worth the dead cap hit, they would be better off trading Herbig or Highsmith.

 

Watt collapsed in early December which cost him 3 games. Despite this he still managed some fine production.

That is 2 interceptions, 3 forced fumbles and 8 knocked down passes. He was better early in the year when he was healthy. He demanded double teams, I think 3rd most in the NFL. While his sack total for 2025 was only 7, I think his injuries and double teaming which helped the other pass rushes out can not be understated as a reason why.

Being 100% health now, I expect him to be more productive in 2026.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WattT.00.htm


As of late 2025, T.J. Watt is among the most heavily covered edge rushers in the NFL, consistently double-teamed on roughly 57% to 66.67% of his pass-rush snaps, ranking him 3rd highest among edge defenders.

Such a man I think is easily worth a 1srt round pick. You don't think so I see.

By the way he is as of 4-20-20026 174 days away from being 32 years old.

 

Even without that lung injury he would've probably missed getting double digit sacks.

 

This is a sticky question.

If TJ Watt retires, all remaining guaranteed bonus accelerates to either this year or (if after June 1) both this and next year.

There is 3 years, $30M remaining on Watt's SB guarantee. If pre June 1 then $30M counts against the 2026 cap. If post June 1 then $10M in 2026 and $20M in 2027 counts against the cap.

The sticky part may come in the guaranteed salaries. There is $32M guaranteed for each of 2026 and 2027. If Watt just voluntarily retires then he walks away from those guarantees and the only cap hit is the $30M above. If he retires with a "career ending injury" then guarantees could be argued to remain and could either count an extra $64M against the 2026 cap ($94M in total with the SB money) or $32M in 2026 and another $32M in 2027 if he retires (or cut) after June 1 for a two year hit of $42M in '26 and $52M in '27.

If Watt were to claim retiring with injury, the likely result would be a negotiated settlement. For argument sake, let's say they settle at half salary with a retirement date after June 1. That would leave a cap hit of $26M this year and $36M next.

The best case scenario to avoid the salary guarantee is to trade him. Then the acquiring team takes on that guarantee. As the Steeler FO, they have to decide what that's worth. Do you trade him for a nominal return because top priority is to get $64M off the books, or do you hold out for a big return because Watt as a player is worth it, and the acquiring team gets him at a bargain of $32M each the next two years with the option of paying him $36M (non-guaranteed) in 2028?

It's never straightforward.

 

I disagree. The suspension was obviously incredibly stupid, but the on field production is what we should have expected. It did cost us a second round pick, but I don't hate that value. He was a low end WR1 in production, but the offense as a whole didn't produce. You can argue Pickens as superior production, but in 2024 he wasn't. He got 7 more yards a game than DK did, but fewer TD's, worse drop numbers, and the end of the year was an issue as many felt that he was held out longer with injury due to a defacto benching and not because his minor injury lingered. Why would someone want 2024 Pickens on the 2025 team over DK? There wasn't much of an argument. Now, Pickens is more talented than DK and got to produce on a functioning offense... but DK's production isn't far off of what we pay him. In a one year sample size it appears to be a slight overpay, but his production level is worth about $25 mil in today's NFL. In a functioning offense, I expect his production to be better as well.

I said I am willing to let Watt bounce back, but 7 sacks for $41 million dollars is abysmal production. We pay Highsmith less than half of Watt and got equal or superior production in 2025. Now... can he be a lot better in 2026? Yes. I expect him to be, and quite frankly its what he's paid to be. A trade at any time saves us $32 million as that is his base pay without prorated bonuses and roster bonuses. He is uncuttable until after the 2027 season. He needs to be at least 12 sacks and the same turnover production to sniff being worth what we pay him... though I can live with 10 sacks and some turnovers. He would at least be more disruptive with those numbers. Again, its a one year sample size on the new contract. He can play awesome the next two years and we will forget about all this, but as it stands his production was a far cry from the value. He needs to step it back up.

 

Pickens recorded over 1,400+ yards in his 2025 season, while Metcalf's performance was more moderate, finishing well behind him in yardage at 850 yards. Picekens had more TD's.

All this while playing opposite a very good #1 NFL WR1.

When you facor in the cap amount difference in 2025...

A low end WR1 is worth how much on the cap to you?

 

Pickens was playing with a QB in his prime in 2025, and another good WR where the coverage couldn't double him like they did with Metcalf with the Steelers.

 

Nice writeup. But no, he's not worth a 1st round pick.