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Most Exciting Steelers Games Since 2002

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by Bubbahotep, Apr 10, 2026.

  1. Bubbahotep

    Bubbahotep Well-Known Member

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    A game's heartbeat is the play-by-play win probability calculated throughout the game. It starts at a certain mark, based on the Vegas betting line, and then moves up and down over the next 60+ minutes of game time.

    Heartbeat signature
    Perhaps the most natural corollary of heartbeat signatures is using them to measure how "competitive" or "exciting" a game was. And certainly, just that with the Heart Rate Index, which combines heartbeat signatures with game context and additional play-by-play analysis to generate excitement ratings for every game. The comeback is the probability swing.

    The Maths :icon e geek::eek:

    Heartbeat Movement= ∑t ∈ # of plays∑∣P(t)−P(t−1)∣

    In words, for any given play, t, in a game, there is an associated win probability calculated after that play, denoted P(t). To score the impact of that play on the win probability, we simply look at the (absolute value) of the change compared to the expected win probability before that play happened - ∣P(t)−P(t−1)∣. We take this value for every play in the game, t ∈ # of plays, and sum them up.


    Screenshot 2026-04-10 061533.png
     
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  2. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    So… SB XLIII didn’t make the list?
     
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  3. Eichburgh

    Eichburgh Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, what??!! I would put that game at 1 or 2 in this list. I needed a defibrillator that entire game!

    And number 2 in this list, probably wouldn't be in my top 10.
     
  4. steelersrule6

    steelersrule6 Well-Known Member

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    Probably there because of the crazy ending.
     
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  5. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    Agree. For the majority of that game with Cinci it seemed like we would easily hold them off and win ugly. It turned when the Shazier strip and TD return was inexplicably killed (I think by absurd penalty?). I just remember that it would have put us up 22-0.
     
  6. Steelvision

    Steelvision Well-Known Member

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    The 2016 Wild Card against cinci for sure. We probably wont see an ending like that ever again.

    Joey Porter, once a steeler always a steeler
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2026
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  7. Bubbahotep

    Bubbahotep Well-Known Member

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    Nope. Ranked 58th most exciting post season game. Gotta take off the Steelers glasses. The highest ranked SB was in '23 SF-KC.

    Top 10 postseasons:

    Screenshot 2026-04-10 125329.png
     
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  8. Bubbahotep

    Bubbahotep Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot 2026-04-10 130124.png
     
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  9. NorthernBlitz

    NorthernBlitz Well-Known Member

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    To be fair, this is like 80% of Steelers games.

    Seems like we can never just win cleanly.

    Many of these games are ones I think we would have guessed from the title of the thread. But I agree missing the SB is odd.
     
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  10. NorthernBlitz

    NorthernBlitz Well-Known Member

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    My guess is that that SB was crazy because of the insane ending.

    But that the integration of the "excitement" this method does suggests that the big excitement was mostly at the end of the halves?

    Looking at these graphs for the ARI and GB SBs, you can see the impact of DTDs very clearly. The "unit step" changes in win% are crazy (at least I assume these big steps are the DTDs).

    The big jump from "the catch" in the ARI game is bigger. But my guess is that's because it happened right at the end of the game. Seeing those big jumps from DTDs in the 1st half shows the impact of DTDs IMO.
     
  11. Steel_Elvis

    Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

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    It’s not about Steelers glasses. I was referring to the list of Steelers games that you posted. It speaks to the limitations of math/analytics to draw conclusions, in this case to rank games as “most exciting.” A week 1 game was more exciting because of the closeness of the score throughout? Nope.
     
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  12. MojaveDesertPghFan

    MojaveDesertPghFan Set the controls for the heart of the Sun.

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    JEH and I had to get out our digital abacuses to follow this logic. Just another example of GROK, HAL and Watson stealing the human experience from life these days. Even Isaac Asimov and Bradbury would probably agree.
     
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  13. jeh1856

    jeh1856 13 good years RIP buddy

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    I am jeh and agree with this message
     
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  14. mac daddyo

    mac daddyo Well-Known Member

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    heck i thought the final game of the season last year against the ravens was pretty exciting. :smiley1::cool:
     
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  15. Bubbahotep

    Bubbahotep Well-Known Member

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    A simple way to visualize 'excitement ' is to look at the win probability graphs and the number of times they cross the horizontal 50% line. Steelers SB against AZ only had one crossing at the end of the game. Contrast that with the SF-KC SB that went back and forth multiple times.
     
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  16. pczach

    pczach Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  17. AskQuestionsLater

    AskQuestionsLater Writing Team

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    My first thought?!


    Like how?! How is that even possible?!
     
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  18. steel machine

    steel machine Well-Known Member

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    2017. Steelers 39 - Ravens 38

    I was in Mexico in a bar with a group of locals who dug the Steelers. Regular season game but one of my all time favorites.
     
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  19. steel machine

    steel machine Well-Known Member

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    I was with family and some walked out and then had to come running back in.
     
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  20. jeh1856

    jeh1856 13 good years RIP buddy

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    If that is not high on the list then the list is :bscow:
     
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  21. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    Where in MX?
     
  22. steel machine

    steel machine Well-Known Member

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    Puerto Morelos. A lot of the Mexicans who live away from the water go there for their vacation.
     
  23. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    Very cool. When I was on that side, I stopped in Cozumel. My son now lives in Tulum.
     
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  24. pczach

    pczach Well-Known Member

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    My wife and I love Mexico. We have been to Cancun a few times. Riviera Maya a bunch of times. We also love Nuevo Vallarta on the Pacific side and have been there a few times. And we loved Cabo San Lucas and San Jose del Cabo, but only made it there once.
     
  25. santeesteel

    santeesteel

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    On the Eastern ide, I've only been to Progreso and Cozumel. I spent 23 years living and working in Western MX. My favorite place will always be Puerto Vallarta. Nuevo is okay but, to me, lacks Vallarta's charm. Just out of curiosity, what is it you loved about CSL? I spent anywhere from a couple weeks to 9 months a year there on a mooring throughout the 80s. Not a fan of what it's become.
     
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