Steelers 20 Yr Draft Report Card

Since it's that time of year, thought this would be a fun look.

Methodology:

• A player's rating is derived from their career Approximate Value (AV) as per Pro Football Reference, along with their annual PFF scores. The rating system gives slight preference to the initial years of a player's career, as these years typically yield higher value for the drafting team.
• A player's ROI is calculated as the difference between the player's actual rating and the expected rating, which is based on their draft position.
• The best picks are identified by the highest player rating, while the biggest busts are those with the most negative player ROI.
• Note that no labels ('best', 'bust', are not assigned after 2023 due to insufficient time in league).

Steelers had the #1 best draft one year, so Colbert haters can chew on that.

KP was a "B" pick, eat that Yinzers! (In case you are wondering, 14 picks in the first round that year were "busts", so KP didn't have much competition (Purdy the #1 rated QB of course).) In a redraft, the Steelers should have taken Charles Cross at pick #20 who would have a higher ROI.

Note also the player ratings are for their careers not just for the drafting team years. So a player like Dotson gets a high rating. The fact that the Steelers didn't keep a high value player seems more a coaching issue than a drafting one.

 

I have reviewed the grades and generally find them acceptable. However, I disagree with giving Harris an A and Pickett a B.

 

Couple of things caught my eye. The Bush trade was one that is interesting. His DRoY season definitely boosted his rating. But he's also had a couple of good seasons with CLE that have made the rating better ( it's the player's career that determines value). In a redraft, the Steelers should have taken Deebo Samuel at pick 10 for the best ROI.

Surprised also that Hood beat out Sweed for the worst bust. Sweed was just terrible with the ball in the air.

The other surprise for me; Steelers were the #1 ranked drafting team in 2020. The season they had no first round pick! Maybe we need another covid year .

 

The 2020 Draft class is as follows:

2 Chase Claypool 49 WR 4 2020 2023 0 0 1 19 58 1 1 1 1 0 33 171 2 175 2261 13 Notre Dame
3 Alex Highsmith 102 LB 6 2020 2025 0 0 5 35 90 0 0 0 Charlotte
4 Anthony McFarland Jr. 124 RB 4 2020 2023 0 0 0 1 17 0 42 146 0 11 87 0 Maryland
4 Kevin Dotson 135 G 6 2020 2025 0 0 4 32 84 0 0 0 Louisiana
6 Antoine Brooks Jr. 198 S 2 2020 2021 0 0 0 1 12 0 0 0 Maryland
7 Carlos Davis 232 DT 3 2020 2022 0 0 0 1 12 0 0 0 Nebraska

This was nowhere near a top ten draft, let alone #1.

 

Who had a better one that year?

It's the draft capital spent vs the player return. Steelers were 31st in draft capital spent (76 pts) while the total player value ranked #6 for that class (132 pts). That's an ROI of +56, tops for 2020.

Maybe you are thinking CIN with Burrow? They had the #10 most draft capital spent (138 pts) while total player value ranked #1 (173 pts). That's an ROI of +35.

Simply put, the Steelers did more with less.

 

Here is the problem with playing with numbers.

#1 The results are subjective based off the data the analyst chooses to use.
#2 The results are subjective because a lot of these numbers are based off the analyst's perspective of "value".
#3 These graphs and charts look good on paper but often lack any real value when common sense is applied.

This one does not pass the smell test. Not only was the 2020 draft not the #1 draft in football that year, it was, frankly, one of Colbert's worst.

Highsmith was the highlight of that draft. He is a solid starter, but certainly not an All Pro guy. Dotson ended up being a good player, but not for the Steelers. Other than that, none of those players panned out. Using analytics to call the selection of Kenny Pickett a "B" is flat crazy. He has been bad everywhere he has been.

 

i agree on some of this. the rankings for this are subjective to say the least. how golson isn't at the top seeing how he never stepped onto the field ever. timmons was quite good.

 

Of course it is subjective. Just as your opinion is subjective.

For a 3rd round pick Highsmith has ended up as the highest rated LB of the class according to PFR and PFF ratings. Dotson was a 4th round pick. In a redraft for that year he might have gone in the top 20 for his value. (Wirfs is the top rated OL in that class but he was a #13 pick.)

 

True data analysis is not subjective, which is the point I was trying to make.

Analytics is an objective study of numbers. When you add in personal opinion you end up with anomalies like Kenny Pickett being a grade B draft pick, and the Steelers 2020 draft being ranked #1.

Look at the Ravens draft that year.

1 Patrick Queen 28 LB 6 2020 2025 0 2 6 54 101 0 0 0 LSU
2 J.K. Dobbins 55 RB 5 2020 2025 0 0 2 22 47 0 582 3024 25 70 367 1 Ohio St.
3 Nnamdi Madubuike 71 DT 6 2020 2025 0 2 4 38 78 0 0 0 Texas A&M
3 Devin Duvernay 92 WR 6 2020 2025 1 2 1 12 89 0 31 222 1 107 1003 5 Texas
3 Malik Harrison 98 LB 6 2020 2025 0 0 1 19 87 0 0 0 Ohio St.
3 Tyre Phillips 106 T 5 2020 2024 0 0 1 11 47 0 0 0 Mississippi St.
4 Ben Bredeson 143 G 6 2020 2025 0 0 3 21 73 0 0 1 0 0 Michigan
5 Broderick Washington Jr. 170 DT 6 2020 2025 0 0 1 15 73 0 0 0 Texas Tech
6 James Proche 201 WR 6 2020 2025 0 0 0 4 71 0 1 0 0 1 0 34 364 0 SMU
7 Geno Stone 219 S 6 2020 2025 0 0 3

The Bengals drafted Burrow and Tee Higgins that year. Outside of Highsmith and Dotson none of the Steelers 2020 draft class are still playing in the NFL just 5 years later. At best that was a middle of the pack draft.

 

Thats the case with a fair number of draft picks. A gm/scouts/coaches are trying to find players they believe will fit their scheme. In some cases it works and in others it doesnt. Dotson is a perfect example of this. Dotson was a damn good gap/power blocking guard. The Steelers hoped he would become a solid zone blocking guard. He got traded to the rams which run a scheme that suits his skillset

 

Didn't mention analytics anywhere in the OP, that is your interpretation. Each pick has expected value based on the ratings (AV) history of players at that pick #, i.e, ROI and value over expected for the pick #. Queen was pick #28. The expected value for that pick is far greater than for Highsmith's pick, where the NFL average to even make a roster is far lower. Madubike was the Ravens best value in that draft. He was the 71st pick but ended up as the #2 rated DT. That is a large VOE. Pickett was Offensive Rookie of the Year when he was drafted. Maybe you missed the part where it said preference is given for picks initial years of playing?

PFR has been rating players for years using their AV algorithms from player stats. You are free to come up with your analytics-based rankings. I would like to see the comparison.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-nfl-draft-final-quick-snap-grades-for-all-32-teams-0ap3000001111711

Just for ****s and giggles here is a complete list of 2020 draft picks by team. @Bubbahotep , I'm not trolling you. I swear it. I just thought it would be cool to look back.

 

Pouncey not top 5 day one

 

No I didn't miss that part. I also didn't miss the part where you told Colbert haters to suck it because the Steelers 2020 was #1. Look back through the drafts I just posted, clearly that is not the case. Hell the Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor in the 2nd round that year. Now that's value.

This is why people need to be so careful with PFF. Some of the stuff they put out is useful, but a lot of it just doesn't hold up when you look at things from a realistic point of view. It's crumby analytics like this that have dumb coaches going for 4th and 3s from their own 30.

 

Gotta love the
BIG ANT PICK hell of a RB

 

Was it fomerscribe who had the crush on BIG ANT? I can't remember. I know it was somebody.

 

Very much no. I was the one mocking others for thinking he was going to be good.

 

I agree on PFF. Never bought into their ratings because they hid them behind a curtain. PFR is a little more open about how they rate players; Approximate Value | Pro-Football-Reference.com. But even they admit the limitations.

(Taylor was a top steal in that draft based on his VOE. Should have been drafted in the top 20. But I'm more interested in their other pick that was top rated that year; Michael Pittman )

 

Sorry man. Must have been someone else. Honestly, I think there were a few that were overly enamoured with Ant.

 

I was a bit surprised that Najee and KFP were that high........But then both of them, and other players as well suffered the full term of Matt Canada's JV level offense and Mike Tomlin's Defense Defense Defense, conservative offense mindset. What might they have been under a coaching staff like Shanahan? We will never know beyond speculation. Heck, for all we know, Joe Burrow might be a backup QB on the Jets by now if he had been drafted by the Steelers.

 

Others already explained how you are wrong about the 2020 draft. MacFarland was a terrible pick, especially with the interior offensive line help they needed sitting there. (Solid NFL starting center Tyler Biadasz is the guy I wanted them to take, but Tomlin/Colbert refused to put value into the center position for a few seasons.)

Claypool put together one very good season, got them a second-round pick in trade. That they turned that pick into Joey Porter, Jr. doesn't affect this ranking, but he wasn't a worthless pick. Highsmith became a quality starter for the Steelers. That the Steelers foolishly traded Dotson before he became a stud doesn't make him any less of a quality draft pick. That is a decent return on a draft with no first-round pick, certainly not one of Colbert's worst.

The Pickett grade is too high. Harris isn't as far off. I would put him at a B. The guy became a quality starter at running back for four years.

 

No, others haven't and no, I'm not. This particular model ranks the 2020 Steelers draft #1. The parameters of this model may see it that way, but when you actually look at that draft compared to the drafts other teams had that year, calling the Steelers draft #1 is inaccurate. Honestly it's not even close.

 

I was referring to you calling it one of Colbert's worst. That simply isn't true.

They drafted two quality NFL starters and another player who was briefly one of those, just long enough for the Steelers to trade him for a second-round pick. That is fairly solid.

Whose draft that year was better? You posted a link to all of the picks from that year, but didn't say which was better.

I would argue the Ravens were better, but they had a ton of draft picks. Madubuike in the third round was a fantastic pick.

The Cowboys with Lamb in the first and Biadasz in the fourth was pretty good.
The Bengals got Burrow and Tee Higgins, but both of they had the first overall pick, so that kind of helps.
If you want to argue the Colts with Pittman and Taylor in the second round, that's fine, though both picks were before the Steelers selected.
You could argue for the Bears with Cole Kmet and Jaylon Johnson in the second round.

If you want to argue for the Chargers for Herbert and the Packers for Love, that still only gives you six, and all of those were with more or higher picks available than what the Steelers were working with.

 

That's valid. Certainly not one of his best IMO. But worst is an exaggeration.

Ravens for one. I listed a link that breaks down the 2020 draft by team. The reality is that Steelers draft was middle of the pack IMO.