Steelers 20 Yr Draft Report Card

Bubbahotep · Apr 5, 2026 at 7:13 AM

Since it's that time of year, thought this would be a fun look.

Methodology:

A player's rating is derived from their career Approximate Value (AV) as per Pro Football Reference, along with their annual PFF scores. The rating system gives slight preference to the initial years of a player's career, as these years typically yield higher value for the drafting team.

A player's ROI is calculated as the difference between the player's actual rating and the expected rating, which is based on their draft position.

The best picks are identified by the highest player rating, while the biggest busts are those with the most negative player ROI.

Note that no labels ('best', 'bust', are not assigned after 2023 due to insufficient time in league).

Steelers had the #1 best draft one year, so Colbert haters can chew on that.

KP was a "B" pick, eat that Yinzers! (In case you are wondering, 14 picks in the first round that year were "busts", so KP didn't have much competition (Purdy the #1 rated QB of course).) In a redraft, the Steelers should have taken Charles Cross at pick #20 who would have a higher ROI.

Note also the player ratings are for their careers not just for the drafting team years. So a player like Dotson gets a high rating. The fact that the Steelers didn't keep a high value player seems more a coaching issue than a drafting one.

Joel Buchsbaum · Apr 5, 2026 at 7:30 AM

Bubbahotep said: ↑

Since it's that time of year, thought this would be a fun look.

Methodology:

A player's rating is derived from their career Approximate Value (AV) as per Pro Football Reference, along with their annual PFF scores. The rating system gives slight preference to the initial years of a player's career, as these years typically yield higher value for the drafting team.

A player's ROI is calculated as the difference between the player's actual rating and the expected rating, which is based on their draft position.

The best picks are identified by the highest player rating, while the biggest busts are those with the most negative player ROI.

Note that no labels ('best', 'bust', are not assigned after 2023 due to insufficient time in league).

Steelers had the #1 best draft one year, so Colbert haters can chew on that.

KP was a "B" pick, eat that Yinzers! (In case you are wondering, 14 picks in the first round that year were "busts", so KP didn't have much competition (Purdy the #1 rated QB of course).) In a redraft, the Steelers should have taken Charles Cross at pick #20 who would have a higher ROI.

Note also the player ratings are for their careers not just for the drafting team years. So a player like Dotson gets a high rating. The fact that the Steelers didn't keep a high value player seems more a coaching issue than a drafting one.

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I have reviewed the grades and generally find them acceptable. However, I disagree with giving Harris an A and Pickett a B.

Steel_Elvis · Apr 5, 2026 at 8:06 AM

Interesting analysis. Thanks for putting this out there. Some of the results are a bit counterintuitive and in my view demonstrate that there are limits of having an assessment like this based on just numbers. Pickett being an obvious example. Harris another. On the math, in terms of draft capital vs. return/value, Devin Bush would seem to necessarily be Top 5. I expect the math to be a lot more complicated if something like the trade value chart score for a player were an input rather than just Top 10, late first, etc.

Definitely a good, thought provoking read. You made me think of Ziggy Hood for the first time in years. To me that was a horrible case of drafting a square peg for a round hole. I’ve always wondered how Hood would have fared in the league if he had been drafted by a team that used him as a 1-gap penetrating 3 tech rather than draft him to change him into primarily a two-gapper.

Bubbahotep · Apr 5, 2026 at 8:42 AM

Steel_Elvis said: ↑

Interesting analysis. Thanks for putting this out there. Some of the results are a bit counterintuitive and in my view demonstrate that there are limits of having an assessment like this based on just numbers. Pickett being an obvious example. Harris another. On the math, in terms of draft capital vs. return/value, Devin Bush would seem to necessarily be Top 5. I expect the math to be a lot more complicated if something like the trade value chart score for a player were an input rather than just Top 10, late first, etc.

Definitely a good, thought provoking read. You made me think of Ziggy Hood for the first time in years. To me that was a horrible case of drafting a square peg for a round hole. I’ve always wondered how Hood would have fared in the league if he had been drafted by a team that used him as a 1-gap penetrating 3 tech rather than draft him to change him into primarily a two-gapper.
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Couple of things caught my eye. The Bush trade was one that is interesting. His DRoY season definitely boosted his rating. But he's also had a couple of good seasons with CLE that have made the rating better ( it's the player's career that determines value). In a redraft, the Steelers should have taken Deebo Samuel at pick 10 for the best ROI.

Surprised also that Hood beat out Sweed for the worst bust. Sweed was just terrible with the ball in the air.

The other surprise for me; Steelers were the #1 ranked drafting team in 2020. The season they had no first round pick! Maybe we need another covid year .

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Steelers 20 Yr Draft Report Card

Bubbahotep Well-Known Member

Joel Buchsbaum Well-Known Member

Steel_Elvis Staff Member Mod Team

Bubbahotep Well-Known Member

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