What are Reasonable Expectations for Mike McCarthy in year one with the Steelers?

We'll see what happens this season.

I think it will give us more perspective on whether or not we over / under achieved in the recent past.

 

FWIW, I think your downside prediction is more likely than us winning the division again.

Although I thought there was almost no chance of us winning the division last season. But we flipped heads enough times for it to happen.

 

Honestly, I would prefer that we had a down year this year. But Rooney's strongly against it.

I'd play Mason and Howard while trying to get experience for younger guys who we think will be on the team in the medium term.

 

Bengals and Ravens choked badly, early on in the season.... somebody had to win the division.

 

Maybe it is the most likely outcome given the recent history, but I think it's hard to expect Jackson and Burrow to miss significant time every year...or at least one of them.

 

That is the biggest downside to the "win the most regular season games every season" philosophy. You run the risk of not developing players.

However, I will say that the Steelers have done an admirable job of getting young players on the field and contributing while maintaining their we are winning every game approach. If the new staff can continue that, it will be a real benefit to whenever they hand the reins over the a young(er) QB.

 

I mostly agree with this.

I do think there are things like playing M Harrison over P Wilson that infuriate me. And early in the season playing J Smith over Washington. And later in the season playing Smith over Freiermuth.

I think it's a shame that Howard didn't get any playing time in preseason. But that wasn't a coaching decision. And then it's had to put him in a game at any point in the regular season when he didn't even take a preseason snap. This one's just on bad injury luck.

 

I'd say the roster is at least as good as last year's if Rodgers is back. Also, We've heard for years about how bad a coach Tomlin is, but we also have to figure the change of systems and culture installed. I'd say that last season is the bar. Aside from the unforeseeable - major injuries etc, a playoff win this year goes over, missing the playoffs goes under, anything else is as expected.

 

That is missing the point.

2008 Rodgers first year as the starter after the Favre retirement/reinstatement/trade circus: 6-10
2013 Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien start a bunch of games: 8-7-1
2017 Brett Hundley Plays half the season: 7-9
2018 Mess of a year: McCarthy fired halfway through: 4-7-1
2020 first year in Dallas and Andy Dalton plays most of the season: 6-10
2024 Cooper Rush plays most of the year: 7-10


In 2026 does anyone think Aaron Rodgers is going to play better than prime of their careers Rodgers or Prescott? Like top 5 in the league MVP caliber season?

That is what Mike McCarthy has had when he won. Take it away and he has never posted a winning record.

 

I think it's pretty unlikely that we'll win the division in the 2026 season.

I hope to be wrong.

 

Even if we do sign Rodgers...we have to think about how likely it is that he plays close to a full season again. We'll see what happens with the left side of the line too.

I do have hope that we'll be as good as the team was last year (although I don't think we'll win the division...I think the team could be "better" and have a worse seed). But we had a lot of things go "right" last year (see upthread re: playing backup QBs or fumbles against the Pats).

 

Oh....and just to pre-empt all those who want to argue that MM put together good offensive numbers and it was his defense that let him down all those back-up QB seasons....might be true.

But take a look at where Graham's teams have ranked when he is DC: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/GrahPa0.htm
Then look at Austin: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/AustTe0.htm

Look, I am no great fan of Austin. But....everyone is talking like different = better. No. Different = not the same.

Judging both MM and Graham on their fairly extensive NFL track record...and 6-9 wins is about what expectations derived from past performance document.

 

I suspect you are correct and Rodgers doesn't play a full season.

All I know is that people are expecting MM to do something he has never done before - guide a team to a playoff victory with less than top tier QB play.

Why is MM now being expected to do something he has never done in an 18 year head coaching career?

 

I think the issue here is that we don't have a particularly strong roster. Hopefully signing an older CB2 works this year. It's a strategy that has been rough on us many times. But if it works, I think it could really make a big difference on defense.

Hopefully having a 2nd WR makes a big difference too.

 

I’d put money on it

 

I would say a playoff win, which is something we have not had in 8+ years. That is the bar he must clear in 2 years.

 

Get back to me after May 13th. That is when the NFL Schedules for the 2026 NFL Season come out.

 

This will be the most talent Graham has had to work with in his career.

 

Rodgers managed to have 24 TDs and 7 ints with a bad WR corp, after the draft the WR room will be much improved and they won't have a useless Jonnu in the offense.

 

The Ravens didn't choke their defense was bad all season one of the reasons they choked badly early on.

 

Baltimore lost nine players as well; all to obtain Maxx Crosby. Trey Hendrickson was a solid plan B but Trey isn't Maxx; not even close.

 

I fully realize I won’t convince anyone. That’s more than okay. I also many will see it all as some defense of Tomlin and other coaches. It isn’t. But feel free to evaluate it that way. Fair enough.

I’m basing it on what various key individuals have done in the NFL before. It isn’t the only basis for predictions not based in hope that exists.

For those wanting to equal or exceed last seasons on field achievements, the following things that have just about never happened before have to occur in some combination of:

• MM has to guide a team to a winning season with below average QB play.
  
• Aaron Rodgers has to jump about 12 spots in the QB pecking order in his age 42 season. I believe only Tom Brady has a 42 or older season that has the stats that would take.
  
• Graham has to go from helming defenses that rank in the 20’s and 30’s to ones that rank in the top 10.
  
• Ramsey, Watt, and Heyward have to put up career years. Father Time is watching closely. He remains undefeated.

That’s a number of exceptional outcomes that need to happen.

As a fan, I truly hope they do. Looking solely at logic and reason, I think the magic 8 ball comes up “not bloody likely”.

 

Rodgers has never had a rookie WR have an impactful season. Not Jordy Nelson. Not Adams. Not Jennings. Not Cobb.

Why would 2026 be different?