What are Reasonable Expectations for Mike McCarthy in year one with the Steelers?

Well that goes without saying. Replacing Tomlin means you just need a pulse to be better...so long as McCarthy and Graham have one, we'll be better coached.

 

IIRC, the offense was right around average PPG last season. It wasn't the laughably bad Pickett/Canada offenses.

I agree with you about the concern re: defense. The best players on our D are getting old. And we can't expect someone like TJ to age like Cam has.

I think how the CB moves work out this year will go a long way to whether the D is good at getting of the field. But the massive drop in performance last season on 3rd down conversions is a big concern IMO. I do think it will be interesting to see how much the D changes and whether we'll be as "easy to scout" as opposing players have said we are this season.

It's not like there's no hope that we can be competitive for a playoff berth or even a WC win. But I would probably say that a more reasonable expectation is and 8-9 win season and just missing the playoffs. Maybe fewer wins if Rodgers doesn't play for us (I assume that he will and he just likes drama and hates preseason).

 

Read above>For those in the back...



It would be great if they would win a Playoff game. But i'm a realist. If it goes South some so be it.

Running it Back with Rodgers i'm souring on by the day. What's the point?

They need to ice down the QB position long term. Why not this season!

 

Tomlin willed them into the playoffs?

Bwahahahahaha.

Tomlin kept them from excelling thus the appearance of him willing them into the playoffs.

Tomlin would have to will an all-time Steelers squad into the playoffs due to his awful coaching (and coaching hires) from June ->November.

He's maybe the only coach in Steelers history that I'd not confidently say he'd finish with 10+ wins in 17 games with an all-time Steelers squad at his disposal. We'd be eeking out wins against good teams that are far inferior and losing games to the Browns and Titans and Panthers.

 

Honestly? All of them. We don't need to be favored to play a competitive game. Competitive to me means that you're not humiliated by them. That you get to the final 10 minutes of the 4th quarter with a chance to win and not down by 3 scores. If you can't do that - and we haven't in recent history - then you didn't belong in the playoffs.

Last year, we beat Baltimore and NE. But the offense was so erratic playing their not-to-lose football, that we weren't able to put up more than 6 points against good defenses. I would expect that with a Mike McCarthy philosophy, Aaron Rodgers in year 2 with the Steelers and an actual additional weapon across from a not-suspended Metcalf, that we'd be able to put up more than 6 points against any of these teams. Otherwise, all this change is a complete failure.

Again, that goes out the door if we start a rookie QB or a lesser vet QB. Then I'm not expecting a competitive WC game, I'd be just hoping at that point.

 

IMO I think it's less him willing the team to the playoffs than it is that Tomlin found a formula that just worked, almost regardless of the team he had. He played not-to-lose offense for most of the game and it won him enough regular season games to make the wild card. And that formula broke in epic fashion in the playoffs, when teams came with their offensive feet planted a little harder on the gas pedal.

So, in that respect, you could be right that we get worse before we get better. If we play more aggressively throughout the season, we might end up losing more games while we sharpen the offensive knife. And honestly, I'm ok with that. We need to start playing modern, aggressive offensive football.

 

Tom Brady made some comments on a show the other day that I agree with. He said that many QBs these days are not taught nor permitted to play the position properly. The offensive coordinator calls a play based on statistics for the down and distance situation. And it assumes the defense lines up accordingly. But when the ball is about to be snapped, the QB should know if the defense was called to do something that's going to beat the called play. Many QBs run the play anyway. But the QB should be much more involved in adjusting the play to counter the defense.

I could see McCarthy giving Rodgers even more control of the offense. That's what you get from an offensive brain like Rodgers that you're just not going to get from a rookie. If we roll with Rodgers, we need to take full advantage of his high offensive IQ.

 

I believe the replies in this thread totally underscore your point. The expectations are not grounded in precedents and reality but fan hopes.

I hope they win the division, get a first round bye, and stomp someone in the playoffs.

Realistically, I figure they win 6-7 games.

 

Yeah that would be if He had already went to two SB with us, already had won multiple playoff games, and never had a losing season.
You know stuff you accrue throughout time .
You know if a guy has been a good employee for a company for a long time, vs a guy just hired. That company will put up with more from the 1st than the 2nd. This actually shouldn't have to be explained.

 

Don't watch much football do you. LoL.
You know he averaged 10.5 wins his entire career as a HC. So tell me how You wouldn't be confident in 10 wins?? That makes as much sense as the rest of the post. LoL. We just won 10 games last year, the year before, and the year before that. LoL.
You should have just wrote. Durrr, durrr, durrrr, and it would have made as much sense.

 

If they lose can we blame it on a roster of Mike Tomlin's players??

 

They played a quarter of the season against backup QBs. Can they count on that again this year?

 

Maybe they can pay the refs early?

 

We're going all the way baby. i can feel it.

 

MM has his teams playing a different brand of football than MT.

MM depends on his offense to put up yards and points. He has never coached a team that has accomplished that with below average QB play. When he has had less than near MVP caliber play from the quarterback position in Green Bay and Dallas, he had a losing record.

The Steelers are on track to receive less than average QB play from either an old Aaron Rodgers or a young inexperienced first or second year QB. Or Mason Rudolph.

The history of MM's two decade or so career says that drives a sub 9 win season.

I am looking to 18 previous seasons for patterns. That pattern is incredibly clear. If the QB is not putting up a top tier season, MM teams are losing more than they win.

 

Do you really think that this team was one of the best 7 teams in the AFC the last few seasons?

We've had average QB play once in like 5 years or so. With one real playmaker on offense (Pickens) who we couldn't really use to his potential because WRs without QBs can't do much.

I do agree that the "rock fight" strategy we had would mean that we would lose to bad teams more than we "should". But I think it won us more games against better teams than we deserved as well.

And it got us into the playoffs despite not deserving it several times. Sadly, the rock fight strategy doesn't work when you get dramatically outclassed. And it's hard for at team like ours to get into a playoff game against a team that isn't much better than we were.

Based on talent, do you really think we were among the top 7 teams in the AFC last year? Deserving of the 4th seed?

 

Without Rodgers, I think this will probably be the case.

With Rodgers I think we'll probably be in our normal kind of 8-10 range.

 

I do not believe they beat another playoff bound opponent other than the Patriots.

 

I think the downside of this type of system with this team is that (1) we don't have a good QB (although I expect Rodgers to sign and he's probably around average) and (2) we don't really have a great play-maker on offense.

Maybe (2) isn't terrible if we have several pretty good guys and above average QB play. This seems to be how we're going to try to build the team. Which is why I think the team ultimately needs Rodgers more than Rodgers needs the team.

 

Maybe? It certainly could happen.

But what if something like the NE game doesn't happen and a quality opponent doesn't fumble 5 times, several on the goalline?

I am making assumptions about the 2026 offense. But I really do not expect it to be all that much better than the 2025 offense. It will look different, but it will not be rocket ship or anything. I assume the team will have zero margin for error. First mistake, game over.

Watching both MM and MT coach for the past almost 20 years...MM teams are mistake prone and less resilient when those mistakes happen. They tend to snowball. MT teams were better at shaking it off and moving on.

I figure that is a 1-3 game difference in record.

 

I have no problem with how the Steelers are approaching building the offense. I don't think it is a bad approach. I just think that they won't be very good in 2026.

 

I do think that the playoff game underscored how the offense wasn't good enough to compete.

But I don't think it's a "true representation" of what the offense was. Because that Houston defense was very good. I live in a place where there are lots of Bills fans. And the Texans humbled their offense in the regular season.

They were average in ppg because Rodgers is still good at getting TDs when they were in the red zone. There's still lots of room for improvement on the offense though. Clearly having a 2nd WR should help IMO.

 

I don't disagree with this characterization.

It's kind of what I meant by him being able to get the team to will itself into the playoffs.