Is A Scrambling QB A Winning QB?

Some mild evidence for it being the case. Rodgers and Darnold definitely buck the trend of non-scramblers not winning.

(Dataset: PFR)

 

For years I was so against running QB's. As the NFL changed so have I. Huge benefit having a QB who can escape trouble and get needed yardage.

I can't remember the comparison but it went something like this, Drake Maye had more running yards in one season then Brady had in his career. Something along those lines.

 

scrambles = pocket presence

NOT PICKETT

 

where is Drake Maye?

 

I would rather see this as a percentage rather than an actual number. #Scrambles

I noticed everyone on the graph in the bottom left corner were part time QBs. This really skews the data to prove a point.

 

The wins for part timers is low because they played only a few games.

Scrambles as a % of what?

 

Sorry. Graphing problem....(google sucks). Maye was the #1 scrambler in 2025.

 

This is interesting data.

Where I have landed is that the QB has to be able punish defenses for leaving openings in their attempt to generate pressure. Whether that means eluding the pressure and resetting on a new spot and throwing the ball or just taking off and running towards open grass for a gain -- doesn't matter.

But you can't just stand there and either get taken down or chuck it into the first row of the seats.

 

cool thanks
wasn't sure if he was mixed in with some other qb

 

Percent of plays. Rather than just number of total scrambles for the year.

The top 10 all look like young guys that just Panic, Nice that we didn't get Malik Willis as you don't want a QB that scrambles at the first sign of trouble. And, No surprise to see Justin Fields in the Top 10.

Is there anyone QB above 10% that you would want on your team?
WOW... Malik Willis's 19% scramble rate is insane, and something that will not work in the NFL.

https://sumersports.com/players/quarterback/

 

Maybe not considered scramblers
But like Ben
Mobile enough to move out of harms way
Definition of a good qb
The running qbs look at one read
Off they go running

 

Scrambling and rushing helps bad passers. If you draft a scrambling quarterback and you have a history of failing at drafting quarterbacks, that choice of drafting a scrambling quarterback will definitely reduce the risk of your bad evaluations.

 

Maybe it's just semantics, but give me a QB who can scramble over a scrambling QB.....if that makes sense.

 

This.


I do like the chart above but given the current nature of the NFL, it is a bit ambiguous. Teams now create either formations or entire playbooks for their QBs to run from given the rules of the NFL nowadays. I do believe that the Defensive Players having been seen since the 2024 Draft and onward have put a dent into that but I don't see such playbooks going obsolete any time soon.

 

"Mild" is definitely the key word.
Those points are scattered across the graph. A straight line is a poor fit to the data. Guessing the chi-square of the fit is terrible.
There may be no evidence of correlation, except indirectly due to number of starts (limited starts means a cap on possible wins and opportunities to scramble).

 

Stafford = the anti-scrambler

 

I'd take Drake Maye. But your point is valid. Compare QBs on the same team, assuming same offensive players and scheme, and there is a big contrast between starter and backup.

 

Mobility. Is the QB mobile? And can he run for yardage? Acceleration is important. I think the NFL is evolving the " spy " position which is a reason why QB's are not running the same for the past four years like they used to.

A rough chart is:

4.5 40 or less. This QB has wheels and can burn DL and LB players to the edge and is dangerous running the football vs Man coverage . Very mobile

4.6 - 4.65 QB can run and hit some big running plays. Mobile

4.7- 4.8 QB can buy himself a second chance on plays.

4.85 to 4.95. QB is slow and better have a good release, good QB
smarts and arm.

5.0 or greater = a slug




Now a QB #1 asset is his arm / accuracy, his #2 asset is his mind in terms of reading defenses / locating open men quickly , and playing smart.

You should see my QB prospect checklist as I break it all down in the Bill Nunn forum.

 

The QB who likes to run ( using the chart provided 6% of the time or more ) are prone to getting hurt. Almost all of them are except for the rare QB player with Size (230+ ) and power such as Josh Allen.

The QB's known as runners tend to have short NFL shelf lives. Teams giving them a big 2nd contract do so at their own risk.

 

We are not talking about rushing QBs here. We are talking about scrambles, i.e. non-designed, off schedule runs.

 

you need a MOBILE QB

THAT is for sure.

AROD was once upon a time, he is NO LONGER

 

I think everyone forgets how much of AROD's game was making incredible plays WAY outside the confines of the offense. For several years, it was their entire third down plan!

Not dissimilar to a certain QB who used to play in Pittsburgh...