Joey Porter Jr Contract

30 < 32

I'd give him a 2 yr 50M 40 full

 

FWIW, this (and a 2nd tag) is accounted for in the back of the envelope math used to estimate that ~ $30MM value of a 4-5 year contract for Porter.

In that estimate, the new money IS (1) the 1st tag value in the 1st new year, (2) 2nd tag in year 2, market values for years 3 and 4 (and 5 if added).

 

Numbers work for team friendly contracts this way. Big BUT is, JPjr has to sign the franchise tag. He could easily just decide to not sign and test the market. Steelers need to sign him, and sign him long term.

 

My understanding is that this is how contract values tend to get determined.

Here's what I said on page 1 to get an estimate of what his contract could look like. Note that I'm guessing on values for his new years beyond year 2.

The player does have some leverage in that he can opt not to sign (a la Lev Bell). But I think it's generally pretty hard for a guy to do that because (1) they lose a whole year of a career that's already short, (2) there's going to be a lot of real money in this deal...and he'll get a lot of it up front in years 1 and 2...really hard to walk away from that kind of thing after only being on a rookie contract IMO and (3) to get to that potential bigger payday, you have to play on a year without a "parachute". So if you blow out your knee or play poorly, you'll end up with less money.

Maybe Porter is a special case because his dad's a former player. So he has some "inside" information from someone who's been through it before. And he also is going to be coming from more money than the average player (really the average human) too.

You'd also need another team that's willing to not use the leverage of "we could just tag you twice so that sets the ceiling of your earnings in the first two new years of your deal".

 

He does not have to sign a franchise tag. He will not have to sit out for a season. He would just play out the last year of his current contract and become a FA. If JPjr hits FA, he will sign a market value contract for a starting CB with some team almost day 1 FA starts, if not day 1. Leverage or no leverage, teams will pay for an elite CB.



I would love nothing more than for JPjr to sign some long term team friendly contract that makes him a Steeler for life. But that just doesn't sound like reality. Currently, $20M-$25M would be a lowball offer. Not saying he should be the top paid CB, but he should probably sign for north of $25M per season. Probably 3yrs/$85M range, although I would rather sign him to a more long term deal. A backloaded 5 year deal averaging $30M per season.

 

First: I agree that 25MM is a low ball offer and he will get more than that. The number you're proposing is basically the same AAV as the offer I put together in the post you're quoting ($28.3MM vs $28.5MM AAVs). But yours is technically more because you're only talking about 3 new years and I was talking about 4 new years at that AAV. I don't think his AAV would be that high with 3 new years because the threat of 2x tags should push it down.

I think we'll sign him for at least 4 new years.

I think we also came out to about the same number on a 5 year deal ~ $30MM / year. Which I would also prefer because longer contracts tend to be better for teams IMO.

Second: He can't sign a franchise tag this off-season because he's still under contract for the 2026 season (i.e. not a pending UFA). This gives us more leverage because the team can prevent him from seeing UFA for 3 more seasons.

That's why it's too his advantage to take a deal now and get that sweet, sweet signing bonus money (and get to a 3rd contract earlier).

The first franchise tag would come after this season (1st tag in the 2027 season). This would be the first "new year" in the deal.

Then he'd have to sit out or play. Technically, I think he can sit out for X number of games, then play to get the accrued season (I think you need 6 games on the roster or IR). This is what Bell said he was going to do the 2nd time we tagged him before just sitting the whole season. IIRC, the whole franchise tag counts against the cap in the year it's applied. But the team gets space back for every game the player missed. I think all that extra space from Bell's holdout went to the dead money from AB's departure.

Then, the team can do the same thing again the next season (2028) with a 20% raise (or the new tag value if the tag value increases by more than 20%).

If they want to, the Steelers can prevent JPJ from seeing UFA until the 2029 season.

This is why players hate the tag(s). Even when the tag isn't applied to them, it still caps the upper end of their market value for at least 2 years. Which is tough when careers are short. Which is why RBs really, really hate the tag (not applicable here though).

 

This is why it's so important to sign players before going into their final rookie contract year.

The team gets to negotiate at today's prices with a known quantity and home-grown talent. They can afford to make an aggressive offer and control this player for another 5-6 years. They can't wait to let Porter play out his contract and become a free agent. Don't do what the Cowboys do and be held hostage by a player that can hit the open market and the team has to trade him, let him walk and the team gets no compensation, tag him and pay outrageous money and be right back where they are right now without a contract, or sign him to a keep him here at much more expensive 2027 prices.

If Porter is offered a fair contract now, he could accept a contract a full year out, be one of the highest paid cornerbacks in the NFL, and his guaranteed money and signing bonus will give him the security of not having to worry about major injury taking away his ability to cash in on a future deal after his rookie contract expires, and he will be a corner piece of his father's team and the team he grew up around.

Just come up with a reasonable number that doesn't make him the highest paid cornerback in the NFL. I still believe there is a chance they can sign him for <$28 million per year. Don't lowball him and let him know they are serious and really want him to be here. Make a good offer right out of the gate. I'd be shocked if he didn't sign.

Signing him now makes the most sense for both parties IMO.

 

He doesn't need family name anymore.
I know You basically said that, I'm just backing it up.

 

I'm not saying his play doesn't deserve it. He has earned a big contract with his play.

Who really knows what the Porter family thinks about things. I just hope he's more levelheaded than his dad. He appears to be and I hope he wants to play with the Steelers long-term.