3rd round selections

Well, if we keep all of our picks this year hopefully at least one of the 3rd rounders works out.

I'd feel better about this 3rd round track record if the 1st round track record wasn't even worse (although Harmon and TF both look good).

But before that:
2023 Jones - borderline
2022 Pickett - might not be in the league next year
2021 Harris - fair production when here, but not good enough for 2nd contract
2020 Used for Minkah - best use of 1st round pick in this list
2019 Bush - Worst 1st round pick I can remember us making. Especially since we traded up.
2018 Edmunds - Harris, but a little worse. Played a lot. Was just a guy.
2017 Watt - Future Hall of Famer
2016 Burns - terrible
2015 Bud - Took a while, but gave one pretty good year.
2014 Shazier - Very good pick. Tragic ending

So in 10 years that can be evaluated, that's one great player. And a couple OK guys.

For a team that wants to build through the draft, this is pretty bad.

And the worst thing about it is that the fairly new rules on cap and cash spending force teams to spend (cap and cash) at fairly high levels. So teams like us that haven't drafted well are kind of forced to go to UFA and overpay for guys (see: DK).

Good news re: drafting is that we've done OK in the 2nd round. Because the 1st and 3rds haven't been good.
2024 Frazier (confident saying he's good even though it's generally "too early" to judge draft classes this early IMO).
2023 JPJ, Benton. Both solid if not spectacular. I think JPJ is generally under rated. And Benton had his best year this year IMO.
2022 Pickens. Gave good production. Traded for something of value.
2021 PF. Reasonable contributor for a 2nd rounder IMO. Could have better production if we didn't forget about him for long stretches or play Smith over him even though Smith is worse. Still the only pick I ever complained about in real time since we had a desperate need for a OC and there was a guy who looked great sitting right there for us.
2020 Claypool. Good first year. Sucked after that. But we swindled CHI, which is hilarious.
2019 No one. Why you ask? Part of package for Devin ****ing Bush.
2018 James Washington. Disappointment
2017 Juju. Good production, but got hurt. Did AB steal his bike? We'll never know.
2016 Davis. Disappointment.
2015 Golson. Hurt all the time.
2014 Tuitt. Great pick. Too bad he retired early, but I get it.

 

Not being able to get a helmet on a team that's so desperate for WR help is a very, very bad sign for Wilson.

 

This is a great point.

Wonder what the expected value of mid to late 3rd rounders is?

My guess is that we're probably somewhere around that expectation in the 3rd.

And below EV in the 1st (although we usually are picking late-ish in the 1st where expectations should be much lower than early 1sts...part of the reason that Bush pick really, really hurts).

 

I agree with you man.
Except TEs, but I definitely agree, and have posted many times Wrs, and RBs should never be drafted in the 1st.

 

I really think that's a Rodgers thing, and I'm not trying to down anyone, but I believe that's at least a bit on him.

 

The first round needs to be divided between Colbert/Ben and Khan/Rotating Nonsense QB.

Colbert’s first round picks suffered because he fell into the trap of looking at the previous season result and saying “we’re just X position away from a SB”. Then forcing X position in round 1. It’s what he “had” to do in a sense.

Khan has lower expectations and is NOT paying QB top dollar. He’s got options to fill roster holes and doesn’t ONLY have Round 1 of the draft.

 

I like when Dave Bryan at the Depot does his "contextualization" posts on draft picks.

Dave seems to be pretty OCD and links video of lots and lots of plays here. All of Najee's explosive runs as a senior. All of Wilson's targets as a senior (he actually has 3 posts, the one linked here is as a senior, but he has other for his other two seasons at Michigan).

His one on Najee was spot on. Showed that basically all of his big runs were because that OL was amazing (I think all went to the NFL and 3x were 1st round picks). Average first contact was 10+ yards down field.

His one on Wilson showed that most of his big plays happened when there was very soft coverage (i.e. coverage playing way off) and he was in the slot.

 

I'm sure this is part of it.

I also think that he's bad against press coverage. I think most of his production at Michigan came in the slot with the defense playing off.

And IIRC Aazanni also talked about how he needs to learn how to get open off the line in the NFL.

 

I agree that the end of Colbert / Ben in Pittsburgh had them feeling pressure to draft more for need than a team should.

And the Shazier injury really hurt our roster construction.

 

Agreed on both.

Tuitt retirement also had an impact.

 

Go for it. Last 10 years who did the Steelers draft at the 3rd round or worse that proved to be an All Star WR?

2024 Roman Wilson
2022 Calvin Austin
2019 Dionte Johnson. (WR that just fell off a cliff)
2016 Demarcus Ayers

Last time the Steelers used a 1st round pick resulted in a game winning Superbowl Catch... 2006 Santonio Holmes 25th pick.

 

The teams always know more than the experts

 

Not narrowed down to just the Steelers or last10 years, which wasn't part of your original post, it's a fairly long list. You can look it up.

 

Round three has been decent for the past six years. It has. We have chosen better then the average 3rd round picks in the NFL. Round one and two ... well that is a different thread.


In 2026 the Steelers have THREE third round picks.. I am optimistic that we can find one decent player in round three.

 

Going in reverse

 

To me, third round picks need to contribute much more than Wilson and Johnson have. Something is wrong, we have had much better production from past third rounders.

 

AB was one of the worst in his 1st few years at getting off the line in press, yet Ben still got him the ball. Hell He could suck, but I think a lot has to do with the Qb Rodgers.

 

I don't think people remember how bad. We had just let Hargrave go, and then the Tuitt situation, and both were very good players.

 

We also didn't have much in the way of WR talent when Brown was in year 2. Hines was old (46 catches for 381 in 15 games). Mike Wallace was the leading WR. Also had Sanders and Cotchery.

I understand what you mean. He can certainly get better.

But I don't think it's reasonable to be comparing AB and Wilson.

It's like when a safety has a disappointing 1st season, it doesn't mean they are going to become Troy.

In year 2, AB played well enough that he couldn't be denied. Even though it sounds like he and Arians didn't have the best relationship (or at least it sounds like AB carries a grudge against him for not having a bigger role early in his career).

Ultimately, it was hard for the team not to play AB because he was clearly better than the higher pedigree Sanders. In his 2nd year, he only had 3 starts per PFR. But he dressed for all 16 games (4 for Wilson this year). In year 2, AB played 954 snaps on offense (Wilson 253) and 59 on ST (Wilson 11). AB had 124 targets (Wilson 21), 69 receptions (W 12), 1108 yards (W 166), and 2 TDs (W 2!).

AB's rookie year was also a lot more promising than Wilson's year 2.

For all of AB's faults, he was prolific when it came to working hard to get better.

Hopefully Wilson can follow a path along those lines.

 

I wasn't comparing Wilson with AB my friend, I was actually comparing Rodgers with Ben. IMO Rodgers wants one thing, and Ben wanted another.
I would be foolish to comparing AB with him as of right now. I just know that AB had problems with getting off of press in his early years.

 

My guess is that they thought Johnson had a chance to be the early down back by the end of the year and that Warren could be the passing down back (he's really good at pass pro and pushed Najee out of this role even though he was good at it too).

I think they only picked up Gainwell on the cheap as insurance in case someone got hurt or Johnson didn't work out.

I think they were surprised at how good Gainwell was for us.

But maybe I just think this because I was massively surprised by Gainwell this year.

 

. I also agree that Gainwell changed a lot of things. Although I didn't have any expectations of him either way. I personally didn't pay him attention enough before he played here.