Two-year extension for Jaylen Warren

Sad part is that Harris would likely be tackled before scoring by that defense with no safeties... biggest reason why he isn't playing on the team this season.

 

I'm sorry that your favorite player got hurt.

Hopefully he comes back better than Bell did.

 

OK...so I got an account at the link above and now have the stats.

Warren 2025

• Tackled for loss: 17 (-31 yards). This is 8.1% of his carries.
• Runs > 10: 23 (10.9%)
• > 20: 6 (2.8%)
• > 30: 4 (1.9%)
• > 40: 2 (0.9%)

Najee 2024

• Tackled for loss: 22 (-49 yards). 8.3%. Only slightly worse. Likely not statistically significant.
• Runs > 10: 29 (11.0%). Again likely not statistically significant.
• > 20: 9 (3.4%) Higher.
• > 30: 2 (0.8%) Half as much.
• > 40: 0 (0.0%) Never happened in 1,100 carries.

Not sure what's going on in terms of floating boats, but Harris gives a small chance of better than 20 yards (1 extra in every 200 carries).

But that comes at the cost you get 1x fewer 30+ yard run / 100 attempts. And you will likely never get a 40+ yard run.

When you look at it in terms of rate stats, you can see that the things people think Najee is better at than Warren end up being pretty close to the same. Except Warren has a > 0% chance of giving you the home run (this is still something that Warren isn't good at). Said another way...every production argument about Najee boils down to "he got more carries".

Note that above I was wrong when I was thinking Najee would have a higher tackle for loss rate. It is technically higher, but the difference doesn't matter. But he does have more tackles for loss. It would be a silly argument if I said he was worse because he has more tackles for loss...when he has functionally the same tackle for loss rate.

But there are two things Najee was elite at that don't show up here. (1) He basically doesn't fumble (something Warren has struggled with from his first camp with us...but has done well this year so far) and (2) Najee was insanely durable for us.

 

this is bad math and the reason ypc isn’t a good stat in this argument.

Yes, Warren’s ypc jumped because of those 2 runs in the Lions game.

BUT IT WAS ONE GAME!!!

We didn’t get the long runs and 4.5 ypc over the other 13 or 14 games.

You keep pointing out how Najee had a lot more attempts. A big part of that is because we were controlling the TOP.

Time of possession:
2025: 29th
2024: 15th

I know a big part of the reason for less rushing attempts is having Aaron Rodgers. Jets also didn’t run a lot even with Bryce Hall last year. But another reason we aren’t running as much is because we aren’t good at it.

 

I think the reason that we suck at ToP this year is more about the defense than the offense.

When you say it's about having Rodgers, it makes it sound like you think it's because we're throwing a lot more frequently (may I'm misinterpreting). But it's because we have way fewer total plays on offense. I think that's mostly because the D sucks at getting off the field (except by turnover).

I think there is a stat about how frequently you turn a 1st down into a new set of downs or a TD. Would be interesting to see how that compares this year vs. last year.

And if your argument is now that we aren't good at staying on the field this year...that seems to contradict the argument that the running game is better now because the QB is better. So I'd guess that at least one of those arguments is wrong.

Re: 2 big runs in one game.

Without both of those runs in that game we lose that game. Which is why huge runs like that really matter in today's NFL. They are game breaking plays.

And I can think of one guy who didn't give us any of those plays even though he had ~1,100 chances to.

 

Looks pretty much a wash to me. And really, considering the salary difference you go with the cheaper option all else being equal.

 

I never said the running game is better. Its worse. The only thing being propped up is ypc and success rate and I just blew a hole on both of those theories.


Passing attempts:
2024: 499
2025: 550

AR had 498 in 16 games this year. Mason had 52 attempts.

When you throw more often you use less clock. When you run more often you burn more clock. I’ve already stated I believe our success is rate is slightly higher. Less runs and AR is better at recognizing when to check out of runs.

and yes, Warren gets credit for his game vs the Lions. But remember you have a history of saying RB’s need to do it against good teams for it to truly count. Lions D was decimated. But my real point is those 2 runs boosting his YPC doesn’t really mean much for the other games where he didn’t have an impact. This is why YPC is a bad stat for RB’s in regard to having a good season.

 

It was posted earlier on the thread. Harris had nine runs of over 20 yards last season. Warren had three going into the game against the Lions, then added two with the long touchdown runs in Detroit for a total of five. He had no runs of over 20 yards in the final two games.

Runs getting stuffed last year was also a function of teams having less respect for the passing game than they had to have with Rodgers at quarterback.

 

1) I am pretty sure I never said the bold part. I gave Najee credit for the three good rushing games he had in a row regardless of who we were playing. I even talked about hoping how he had turned the corner. But then the rest of the season happened. Didn't have more than 75 yards rushing in the next 9 games. Had less than 55 yards in 6/9 games. Less than 50 in 4/9.

2) You seem to keep arguing that I think Warren is a good RB1. I don't think he is. Just that he's better than Najee was (not by a lot). It's just like Mason and Kenny. It's not good for the 1st round pick when they aren't clearly better than the career backup or the UDFA.

Without those 2 runs, he's very similar Najee just with fewer carries. Slightly better YPC (likely the 0.1 difference doesn't mean anything). Stays on schedule better.

The fact that he's capable of delivering a big run or two over the course of the season. He doesn't do it frequently enough to be a good RB1 IMO. But Najee never did in in 4 seasons even though he probably had more carries than anyone in that 4 year span.

 

If you look a couple posts earlier, I have the data from the same source. I just had to sign up for an account.

Basically the rates of 20 yard carries and carries for loss are similar for Najee and Warren (slightly higher for Najee). This is almost always the right answer when you think about Najee without calculate the rate stats. Things like yards and number of runs over 10 yards or over 20 yards all look good when you neglect the fact that he has more carries than any RB in the league for the 4 year period he spend with us. But when you look at it in terms of rate stats (divide by carries), he's the same (or very similar)...until you get to runs above 30 yards. Where Najee isn't good.

As I said in my post above with the numbers: It would be silly for me to talk about how Najee had more carries for loss than Warren. Because he had basically the same rate of carries for loss (slightly higher than Warren).

Really, the extra carries for loss came because he had more carries. The same is true for the 20+ yard run argument you're making here.

Just Warren gives you a small chance at a game breaking play (not something he's good at). But he's fumbled more historically (not bad at that this year).

 

Yeah but
but
but

durability is the most important stat

 

Najee had elite durability for us. For the Chargers...not so much.

There's obviously some randomness to injuries, but this is exactly why the team didn't give an OK RB a 5th year option that guaranteed him money 2 years into the future.

There's no guarantee his Achilles ruptures if we sign him to the option.

Just like there's no guarantee his Achilles doesn't rupture in 2024 (or some other season / potentially career ending injury) if we did sign him to the option.

And based on how we've handled options since they became guaranteed, we don't want to take that risk for guys who are only in the playing time (2nd lowst) tier (Edmunds, Najee). But we will take that risk for all pros (TJ and Minkah).

We traded Kenny after year 2, so we don't know. He hadn't locked in the playing time tier. IRL, he was in the "other" (lowest) tier for options. Might have ended up that was with us too.

This all suggests that we won't pick up Jones' option this year. I think that would have been the case even if he didn't get hurt and his low-cost replacement looked to be around as good.

 

Why do you think guys with high YPC have that number? It's not that they get 4.5 or 5 yards on every single run. It's because they can break long ones. Gibbs, Jamaal Charles, Nick Chubb, etc all have over 5.0 ypc for their career. They don't just chunk 5 yards on every play. They make house calls.

It also wasn't just one game. Jaylen Warren averaged 4.5 ypc or more in 8 of his 15 starts (53%), while averaging 3.0 ypc or less in 4 (27%). The rest were between 3 and 4.5 ypc. For reference Najee averaged 4.5 or more in a game 6 of 17 starts (35%) and 3.0 or less in 5 (29%) in 2024. The same could be said for the other years. In 2023 Najee had 5/17 over 4.5 and 6/17 at 3.0 or under. In 2022, Najee had 4/17 over 4.5 and 4/17 at 3.0 and under. In 2021 Najee had 4 over 4.5 and 5 at 3.0 or under... Statistically Najee is significantly less likely to have a big game than Warren and more likely to have a bad one. Over 4 years in Pitt, Najee had 71 starts and managed 4.5 ypc or more in 19 of them (27%). He had 3.0ypc or less in 20 of those games (28%). He was literally more likely to suck on a game to game basis than he was to have a big game. Warren was twice as likely to have a big game than he was to have a bad one in his lone starting year... Not to mention that Najee had 3 playoff games with his best one being 3.1ypc. The others were 2.4 and 2.8... Not a big time player in the post season.

We didn't struggle with TOP because of our choice in RB. We actually converted 3rd downs at a better clip in 2025 than we did in 2024 (less than one percent better, but still). It had to do with a number of things but we would be remiss to not point out that the defense played a part in this. We were very bad at 3rd down defense in 2025 (25th) and historically bad in 4th down defense (worst ever in NFL history). We also were a middle of the pack rushing defense and a bottom 3 passing defense. Its not always on the offense to control TOP. Another thing to realize is that Warren had a really good year converting 3rd and 4th down and 2 or less this year, which is something Najee got heat for not being good at despite his size. Warren is also at the high end of the league in forced missed tackles (something that Najee was also pretty good at).

We certainly are running less as Rodgers seems to check out of RPO's (or we scheme up some short swing passes that act like runs because our backs are good in space), but we aren't "worse" at running it. We're actually better at running it, we just don't run in the same way we used to. The disparity in rushing attempts has to do with the type of back each is. You give Najee the ball more because he is a volume runner... He's not going to be efficient with his carries, but the hope is to wear the defense down and start ripping off runs in the 4th quarter. He's the proverbial "body blow" of RB's. Warren will be used less because he is smaller and we don't want to force a "volume" workload on him for injury sake... but also he is used as he is because he is excellent in space. Warren makes guys miss, has great vision and cuts, while still being stout enough to run with physicality. He also opens the offense up to allow us to do things that we couldn't do with Najee on the field (like run out of shotgun, or stress the defense by mismatches by seeing RB's featured in the passing game). He likely will always be a "tandem" type back because he is 5'8'', but he's still physical enough at 215 to be able to take a 15-17 touch a game workload (13 carries and 3 catches). Warren brings the ability to rip long runs. He had 3 rushes of 37 yards or longer this year (Najee's career long is 37). It is why his YPC will be higher, but also because Warren does just about as well as Najee did on the rest of the carries. Without the long runs, Warren would likely be around 3.9 yards per carry like Harris... the thing is... he gets those (and will continue to do so).

 

You are talking about a list of RB’s with a lot more carries than Warren.

The reason I’m pointing out the Lions game is because NB and a few others pointed out how Warren’s ypc jumped to 4.5 from 4.0 after that game.

you do know that was the game where he really showed a nice burst but let’s not act like he was doing that all year.


Ain’t no one screaming “stop the run” when they face our offense.

 

Do you think people were worried about stopping Najee last year?

Just because we don't have a good running game this year doesn't mean we had a good running game last year.

The running game isn't good enough IMO. But it's somewhat better this year than it was last year.

 

Word is Jaylen is sick today. Should have kept Najee.

 

fire

 

I'm really not though (at least on a yearly basis). Nick Chubb definitely did in his prime (larger back), but Charles and Gibbs don't carry it more than Warren did this year. Gibbs has carried it 13.8 times a game for his career. Warren carried 13.2 this year. Jamaal Charles had 5 1,000 yard years between 2009 and 2014 (one year lost to injury), and averaged 234 carries per year in that span (which is essentially one carry more per game than Warren had this year). If you're talking about total carries over a career, who cares? Warren has only started one season. There's no reason to believe he wouldn't be as good next year (and the years after) as a starter.

Every back's YPC would go down if you took away their best game of the season. That is how averages work. If you took away Jahmyr Gibbs' best game away, he would go from 5.0YPC to 4.4 YPC... That is just what happens in the NFL. Guys aren't going to rush 14 times for 63 yards every single game. Sometimes they rush 14 times for 42 yards and other times they rush 14 times for 143 yards. Guys that pop off with big games more often are generally the ones that get paid.

Of course they are. Outside of DK our RB's were our best playmakers on offense. They literally load the box and try to force us to pass because we have one viable WR... We're not the best rushing team, but we were 5th fewest in attempts. We ran it pretty solidly for most of the year. When your top backs have 4.5 and 4.7 ypc, you're doing something right.

 

I dont think thats true, more carries does not equal more 20 yard runs. For example this year Christian McCaffrey had 311 carries and 3 runs of 20+ yards, Henry had 308 carries and 17 20+ yard runs, Warren had 211 carries and 6 20+ yard runs. The other reason ypc is misleading is it cant accurately account for situational football. This year short yardage has basically been taken away from Warren, Meaning he isnt having to convert those 3 or 4 short yardage runs per game which helps his yard per carry, instead its being given to conner heyward.

 

I'm tired of the argument. Warren is here, Najee isn't, but I would say yes last year, the year before, and the year before that with the Qb play we had, I definitely believe that the DCs of the opposition 1st priority was stop the run.

 

Wizard! Good to see you on here.

It's certainly true that some backs are better than other backs. And we've seen that you can give Najee more carries than anyone in the league over a 4 year span and he can't get a carry more than 37 yards (i.e. can't get a carry as long as Bettis' longest carry in the final year of his career when he was "Fat Jerome").

If you're argument is that McCaffrey and Henry are better than Warren, I don't think anyone sane will disagree with you. This is very obviously true.

As I have said time and time again on this thread, I think Warren has been better than Najee. But probably not by all that much. I think we need an upgrade at RB1 because he's still not as good as we'd like our RB1 to be.

I agree with you that YPC isn't a good metric for situational football. On this thread (and when we've talked about this before), I've been consistently arguing that YPC is a proxy for how frequently a back gets the long carries that skew the mean high. That's why Henry has such a large YPC. He delivers these game breaking plays very frequently. Just like Chubb used to before his injury. This is something that Najee just can't do. He's had 1,100+ carries in the NFL. The cake is baked.

Not sure if you read the entire thread. This is why I brought up succ%. This is the best metric we have to measure how well a back does in situation football. Here, you have a "successful" carry if you get 40% of required yardage for a new first down on 1st (i.e. 4 or more yards on 1st and 10). 60% on 2nd. And 100% on 3rd and 4th. So for succ%, the 1 yard run on 2nd, 3rd, or 4th and one is "successful" if it's a 1st down. This is bad for YPC, but good for success rate.

This wasn't readily available when you and I used to discuss this and you'd argue that Najee's YPC was low because he had so many of these "and short" situations.

The good news is that YPC is easy to objectively calculate without even looking at the play! All you need is the play-by-play with down and distance and the result of the play. So PFR has gone back and retroactively calculated these all the way back to 1978! So while we can't see how good O.J. was at succ% in his prime, we can go back very far.

My understanding is that a "reasonable / good" success rate is 50%. This is a number Najee never hit (except in 2025 when he only had 15 carries). And in 2024, his success rate was abysmal at 43.7%.

What this means is that Najee was also not good at keeping us on schedule. It doesn't specifically break down how many of these are those tough short yardage plays.

This year, Warren was at 54.5% and Gainwell was 55.3%. They were both much better at keeping us on schedule this year.

 

The point of contention is with your statement that more carries lead to more 20+ yard runs, that is demonstrably false. I think Najee and Warren are just different backs, I dont think you can look at the numbers and put one above the other. What I will say is that Warren was not good early on in the season, even to the point where I felt like Gainwell had taken over as the lead back. Down the stretch he has been good and I hope it continues into the playoffs but I wouldnt be surprised if the Steelers were looking for Johnson to make a leap next season.

 

No Wizard.

What I said was that Warren and Najee had essentially the same rate of 20+ yard runs, just like they had essentially the same rate of carries for loss. I even showed the math...not sure how you missed it.

Which suggests that in the specific comparison between Najee and Warren, the reason that Najee had more 20+ yard runs (and more carries for loss) is because he got more carries.

So that if you gave them the same number of carries you would expect a similar number of 20+ yard runs and a similar number of carries for loss. But Warren would likely give you 2x as many 30+ yard runs and some chance of getting 40+ yard runs (which Najee hasn't done in 1100+ carries).

Then you said: Guys who get 20+ yard runs at a higher rate than both Najee and Warren have the ability to get more 20+ yard runs if they have less carries because the they get 20+ yard runs at a higher rate than Najee and Warren do. Which is (1) correct and (2) doesn't contradict what I said at all.

Notice that the backs you picked are some of the best backs in the league. Probably both going to the HoF. You are saying "better RBs are better"! I strongly agree. And I would love to have a great back like Henry or CMac. Which is why I wanted to get rid of Najee. Because we needed an upgrade. I would also like an upgrade over Warren (but my guess is that the team will let him play out his contract...just like they did with Najee).

Notice also that the thing I think is the biggest issue with Najee is that never had a carry > 37 yards despite having 1,100 carries. That entire argument centers around the idea that it doesn't seem to matter how many carries he gets. He's extremely unlikely to get that distance. I think if you gave any RB1 or RB2 a workload of something like 200 carries, that RB would have more 40+ yard carries than Najee would. Because they are all better at it than he is.

 

Like many here, you are too focused on the handful of home runs to understand the value of the steady stream of singles and doubles that can wear down a defense.