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A look at Watt's production through Week 11

Discussion in 'Steelers Talk' started by Thor, Nov 18, 2025 at 1:32 PM.

  1. Thor

    Thor Staff Member Mod Team

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    With Watt's extension being a hot topic this summer, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at his performance thus far and compare it against similar points in 2023 and 2021, giving us a look at his general trend over the last five years.

    Year | Games || Sacks | Solo | Asst | TFL || Int | PD | FF | FR || Snaps
    2021....8..........12.5.......29.....10.....13......0.....4......3....2.......392
    2023...10.........11.5.......26.....10.....11......1.....6......2....3.......620
    2025...10..........6.0........16.....22......8......1.....7......2....2........585

    Watt's 2021 obviously stands out not just for the raw numbers but the truncated amount of defensive snaps he needed to post them. We can extrapolate a full season's worth of production from the pace he's currently through 10 games of his age-31 season (as well as to fill in the two games he missed in 2021), and get a ballpark read on where he may finish in comparison to age-27 and 29 years:

    Year | Games || Sacks | Solo | Asst | TFL || Int | PD | FF | FR || Snaps

    2021....17..........26.......54.....18.....24.......0.....8.....6.....3......833
    2023....17..........19.......48.....20.....19.......1.....8.....4.....3......931
    2025....17..........10.......27.....37.....14.......2....12....3.....3......994

    The decline in 2025's production is stark, particularly in splash stats. Looking at a recent study that compared EDGE rusher productivity in terms of pressures as a function of age, we see that once past their peak performance years from 24-27, the drop off can be significant:

    [​IMG]

    According to the graph, the average in pressures generated amongst all EDGE rushers from 2018 through 2024 dropped approximately 25% over the two years from their age-27 to 29 seasons, and fell another 15% when they turned 31 - a 40% reduction from age 27 to 31. While Watt's diminished numbers in sacks (pacing at a 55% drop from 2021) and tackles for loss (-42%) show accelerated decline, his pressures do not. From 2021 to 2023, he fell from 52 to 50 (3.8%), and is on pace for 37 this year, a 29% drop from his peak.

    There are several factors that could be contributing to what we're seeing, from the happenstance of an off year to a significant drop off in ability over the past two years. Trend, both in the aggregate of the league's EDGE rushers and within Watt's other metrics, suggest it could be an outlier. For now, opponents continue to respect Watt's ability, as he continues to command one of highest rates of double teams in the league.

    A look at the graphs below shows why. Watt's production shows a considerable shift when having to contend with a second blocker. The bright side is that (if PFF's data is to be believed) leaving single coverage on Highsmith or Herbig considerably bumps their ability to get into the backfield.

    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]

    In general, teams that award elite talents a third contract know that they're unlikely to see the same elite production as the player hits his 30s. They hope the player ages gracefully enough to still deliver top quartile results. There, they can still have a direct impact and draw extra attention, which increases the opportunity for younger talent to step up as they hit their prime.

    Watt's dip in splash plays is concerning, but to borrow a phrase, he still has seven games to write his story. Meanwhile, Herbig (6.5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 FF, 9 TFL) and Benton (4.5 sacks, 5 TFL) have already hit career highs, and if not for the two missed games Highsmith (5.5 sacks, 1 FF, 6 TFL) would be giving chase to his 2022 production, his career best.

    It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season unfolds.
     
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  2. SGSteeler

    SGSteeler Well-Known Member

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    I think it mostly shows that Watt still performs at a good level, despite being one of the most doubled guys in the league. He certainly has been doubled a lot prior, but his production has dropped due to both age and teams just figuring out what to do against our defense. Herbig and Highsmith have high marks in performance, though are afforded a very low double percentage because TJ Watt exists on the defense.

    Is the drop in production concerning? Yes. Does it mean that he is about to fall off a cliff? Not necessarily.
     
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  3. rmorphy

    rmorphy Well-Known Member

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    He has certainly lost a step or two.
     
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  4. Karl

    Karl Well-Known Member

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    I didn't see how teams are playing him.
    He certainly drawing attention.
    But the same could be said for Myles Garret (29) who now has 15 sacks as opposed to TJ's (31) 6 sacks.

    TJ has some pass responsibilities as a LB where Garret is a DE. Still, the 3-4 LB is a hybrid DE.
    TJ also has 2 forced Fumbles with 2 recoveries and an inception from 7 passes defended. Garret is a DE and has literally 0's there.

    Our front office should have made some decisions re TJ and Cam which make up a chunk of cap allocations.
    I would think 1 could have netted some draft compensation, maybe a player.
    Though 70's me would love to keep them but 2025 me knows the cap and the NFL no longer do that sort of thing.
    TJ's contract makes a trade near impossible.

    All in all, TJ nor Cam are quite the impact they were. We will need to get younger.
    TJ will be here and maybe they change up some on how much playing time he gets.
    I think this it for Cam though. His cap numbers if cut (he is signed through 2026) are friendly and maybe they pull off a small trade.
    Then again, we're talking Omar... so it's a random drawing.
     
  5. Formerscribe

    Formerscribe Well-Known Member

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    I have written this before. I was against giving him that big contract in the first place. I was fine with trading him or letting him walk after the season. The decline was way too easy to see coming, but folks didn't want to admit it. What we have seen so far this season has proven me right. He is still a decent player, but nowhere near what he used to be. Giving him one more big pay day was a huge mistake.
     
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  6. OH Steeler Fan

    OH Steeler Fan Well-Known Member

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    Against Cincinnati I didn't see him getting chipped every play like he use to. This 1 team helmet guy can't be a priority in the future.
     
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  7. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    Wait, and I don't mean to be picking at something, but You don't see how teams are playing TJ Watt, and yet You know when we don't, or do change schemes on certain looks???????:shrug:
     
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  8. MojoUW

    MojoUW Well-Known Member

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    A lot of this is just basically the internet equivalent of radio drive time chatter.

    Wipe Watt's contract off the books. Where is the money going to go? There are zero FA's or previously rostered players the Steelers have missed out on because of paying Watt. None.

    And even when his cap number jumps to crazy town for the next couple of years...so what? They aren't going to be paying a QB.

    It doesn't do you any good to be standing around with cap space. I mean they had a bunch of it this year and gave Slay a stack of cash to run around with a fork sticking out of his back.

    While the decline in Watt's play is likely real and here to stay...so what? There is more value to Watt and Heyward being one helmet players for your franchise than there is in standing around with a bunch of cap space. Herbig, Sawyer, Highsmith, Benton, Harmon, and Black. Those guys all benefit from Heyward and Watt on the roster.

    Even if they draft a QB that is the next HOF caliber first round guy in 2026...Watt is off the books by the time you have to extend the dude. It is almost like they know what they are doing.

    If you want to find a contract that will just piss you right the heck off...look at the cash they gave Slay and Friermuth. Those are bad contracts.
     
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  9. steelersrule6

    steelersrule6 Well-Known Member

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    I was told there would be no math :eek:
     
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  10. AskQuestionsLater

    AskQuestionsLater Writing Team

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    The fact of the matter is that TJ Watts age, a lack of creativity in using him and opposing Offenses now creatively scheming against him week after week further compound the problem. Moreover to the point, both Austin and Tomlin alluded to heavily that things would be different over the summer; top of the list was to be the deployment of the EDGE Players. None of that has yet to happen... assuming it ever will. That isn't on TJ. That is on coaching.


    However, to say that TJ Watt is blameless in all of this would be silly. Even when he does get his 1 vs 1s, T.J. isn't winning them as much as he used to. Could still be age but it could also be something else.


    Overall, none of this is good. Hopefully T.J. can turn it around. Otherwise, this contract is yikes.
     
  11. Thor

    Thor Staff Member Mod Team

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    You have a habit of taking extremely small samples or bits of information and using it to proclaim yourself 'right.' Here, you're skipping the part about how clubs commonly do this with players of Watt's talent on third contract, still getting a high level of play while opening things up for other players. It's fair to say Herbig and Highsmith (maybe even Benton) wouldn't have the numbers they do if teams were focusing their doubles on them rather than Watt, which they still have to do. In fact, that's exactly what the graphs above show.

    Furthermore, for it to be a 'huge mistake', we need proof that the club is significantly worse off with Watt than without. For this year, that would mean he's still here and we have $7M less in cap space. Next year, you'd have his $42M, but the club is already $38M under a conservatively projected cap and has yet to make any moves to free more dollars up. He's won't be log-jamming them from acquiring other players.
     
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  12. Karl

    Karl Well-Known Member

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    I realized about 20 minutes after posting that didn't read right.
    What I meant was, I don't see stats on chips/doubles/ and sometimes triple ratios....

    You are correct sir... my bad.
     
  13. theotherbigben

    theotherbigben Well-Known Member

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  14. Joel Buchsbaum

    Joel Buchsbaum Well-Known Member

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    Watt is #2 on being double teamed in the NFL. He collects turn overs which is huge.
     
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  15. ALL D

    ALL D Well-Known Member

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    He often gets the first turnover to start the ball rolling.
     
  16. forgotten1

    forgotten1 Well-Known Member

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  17. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    LoL. Goes to show what the coaches say to the media, and what they actually do are two different things, and how it should be.
     
  18. S.T.D

    S.T.D Well-Known Member

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    Hell look no farther than Highsmith. He's the one that gets the least attention, and is the most injured, and look at what has been done almost every time someone takes his place.
     
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  19. Formerscribe

    Formerscribe Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, who wants cap room for next year when the Steelers can piss it away on a former superstar who is now pretty average. :facepalm:
     
  20. Formerscribe

    Formerscribe Well-Known Member

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    I guess you forgot that their massive financial commitment to Watt goes past this season.

    Just because they have cap room next year doesn't mean more isn't better. That other teams make similar mistakes doesn't mean it was a good idea.

    The first 10 games of this season are just additional data. The decline was already in effect. He broke down and completely disappeared during the team's collapse late last season, too. There is also a great deal of data that demonstrates that edge rushers like Watt do not age well. There is no reason to believe he will be any different. If you want to quibble over my word choice and say it should have read demonstrates rather than proves, so be it. If you want to fool yourself into believing there is some big rebound coming, that's your mistake.
     
  21. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member

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    What I read here is that Watt is still above average, but experiencing the affect of time just like everyone else in his position does. This type of data has to become a consideration on future contracts. Watt is the #2 or 3 highest paid in his position I think? He is still a top 10 guy for sure IMO, but can you justify giving a record setting contract to a guy who is at the top end of good, but will probably not be in the elite category anymore given historical data in his position? While you can't ever know for certain just how a player will play, stats like these do show a very clear trend. You are tying a lot of money up into 1 position at the expense of others. That much money requires elite level play.
     
  22. Thor

    Thor Staff Member Mod Team

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    If you think I don't know his future years' cap hit, we can have a discussion over whom you think will be blocked by his cost in 2027 and beyond.
    This I can agree with. Signing him to such a contract was taking a chance that he doesn't suffer significant decline - which, naturally, ties into your point above. But you don't know how that will actually turn out - you're relying on a small sample. And for now the judge of that is ultimately his opposition. If they continue to double him, great for Highsmith/Herbig - they can overachieve their expectations (moreso for Herbig from a financial aspect).

    As with some of your other opinions, I agree with you in part. Where you and I usually divide is that I'm more pragmatic. Not saying either way is 'better', but where we often clash is when you think something has been proven, while I point to the fair chance that it hasn't. With Watt, you may be right - maybe teams stop doubling him and he doesn't produce, but the numbers don't show that yet - and neither do the opposing defenses.
     
  23. Thor

    Thor Staff Member Mod Team

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    I don't get as caught up with 'record setting' contracts, so long as the APY and structure looks affordable given the trend in salary cap increase and team obligaton. The Steelers are rather vanilla in the latter, and the former has been growing at a pronounced rate for the last three+ years. You're right in that Watt is currently #3 at his position in APY, but for total production I think you have to look at the rest of his teammates. If opponents are focusing on Watt, it can clear others to have greater production.
     

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