A look at Watt's production through Week 11

I think it mostly shows that Watt still performs at a good level, despite being one of the most doubled guys in the league. He certainly has been doubled a lot prior, but his production has dropped due to both age and teams just figuring out what to do against our defense. Herbig and Highsmith have high marks in performance, though are afforded a very low double percentage because TJ Watt exists on the defense.

Is the drop in production concerning? Yes. Does it mean that he is about to fall off a cliff? Not necessarily.

 

He has certainly lost a step or two.

 

I didn't see how teams are playing him.
He certainly drawing attention.
But the same could be said for Myles Garret (29) who now has 15 sacks as opposed to TJ's (31) 6 sacks.

TJ has some pass responsibilities as a LB where Garret is a DE. Still, the 3-4 LB is a hybrid DE.
TJ also has 2 forced Fumbles with 2 recoveries and an inception from 7 passes defended. Garret is a DE and has literally 0's there.

Our front office should have made some decisions re TJ and Cam which make up a chunk of cap allocations.
I would think 1 could have netted some draft compensation, maybe a player.
Though 70's me would love to keep them but 2025 me knows the cap and the NFL no longer do that sort of thing.
TJ's contract makes a trade near impossible.

All in all, TJ nor Cam are quite the impact they were. We will need to get younger.
TJ will be here and maybe they change up some on how much playing time he gets.
I think this it for Cam though. His cap numbers if cut (he is signed through 2026) are friendly and maybe they pull off a small trade.
Then again, we're talking Omar... so it's a random drawing.

 

I have written this before. I was against giving him that big contract in the first place. I was fine with trading him or letting him walk after the season. The decline was way too easy to see coming, but folks didn't want to admit it. What we have seen so far this season has proven me right. He is still a decent player, but nowhere near what he used to be. Giving him one more big pay day was a huge mistake.

 

Against Cincinnati I didn't see him getting chipped every play like he use to. This 1 team helmet guy can't be a priority in the future.

 

Wait, and I don't mean to be picking at something, but You don't see how teams are playing TJ Watt, and yet You know when we don't, or do change schemes on certain looks???????

 

A lot of this is just basically the internet equivalent of radio drive time chatter.

Wipe Watt's contract off the books. Where is the money going to go? There are zero FA's or previously rostered players the Steelers have missed out on because of paying Watt. None.

And even when his cap number jumps to crazy town for the next couple of years...so what? They aren't going to be paying a QB.

It doesn't do you any good to be standing around with cap space. I mean they had a bunch of it this year and gave Slay a stack of cash to run around with a fork sticking out of his back.

While the decline in Watt's play is likely real and here to stay...so what? There is more value to Watt and Heyward being one helmet players for your franchise than there is in standing around with a bunch of cap space. Herbig, Sawyer, Highsmith, Benton, Harmon, and Black. Those guys all benefit from Heyward and Watt on the roster.

Even if they draft a QB that is the next HOF caliber first round guy in 2026...Watt is off the books by the time you have to extend the dude. It is almost like they know what they are doing.

If you want to find a contract that will just piss you right the heck off...look at the cash they gave Slay and Friermuth. Those are bad contracts.

 

I was told there would be no math

 

The fact of the matter is that TJ Watts age, a lack of creativity in using him and opposing Offenses now creatively scheming against him week after week further compound the problem. Moreover to the point, both Austin and Tomlin alluded to heavily that things would be different over the summer; top of the list was to be the deployment of the EDGE Players. None of that has yet to happen... assuming it ever will. That isn't on TJ. That is on coaching.


However, to say that TJ Watt is blameless in all of this would be silly. Even when he does get his 1 vs 1s, T.J. isn't winning them as much as he used to. Could still be age but it could also be something else.


Overall, none of this is good. Hopefully T.J. can turn it around. Otherwise, this contract is yikes.

 

I realized about 20 minutes after posting that didn't read right.
What I meant was, I don't see stats on chips/doubles/ and sometimes triple ratios....

You are correct sir... my bad.

 

TJ Washed

 

Watt is #2 on being double teamed in the NFL. He collects turn overs which is huge.

 

He often gets the first turnover to start the ball rolling.

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/t-j-watt/5262/stats

 

LoL. Goes to show what the coaches say to the media, and what they actually do are two different things, and how it should be.

 

Hell look no farther than Highsmith. He's the one that gets the least attention, and is the most injured, and look at what has been done almost every time someone takes his place.

 

Yeah, who wants cap room for next year when the Steelers can piss it away on a former superstar who is now pretty average.

 

I guess you forgot that their massive financial commitment to Watt goes past this season.

Just because they have cap room next year doesn't mean more isn't better. That other teams make similar mistakes doesn't mean it was a good idea.

The first 10 games of this season are just additional data. The decline was already in effect. He broke down and completely disappeared during the team's collapse late last season, too. There is also a great deal of data that demonstrates that edge rushers like Watt do not age well. There is no reason to believe he will be any different. If you want to quibble over my word choice and say it should have read demonstrates rather than proves, so be it. If you want to fool yourself into believing there is some big rebound coming, that's your mistake.

 

What I read here is that Watt is still above average, but experiencing the affect of time just like everyone else in his position does. This type of data has to become a consideration on future contracts. Watt is the #2 or 3 highest paid in his position I think? He is still a top 10 guy for sure IMO, but can you justify giving a record setting contract to a guy who is at the top end of good, but will probably not be in the elite category anymore given historical data in his position? While you can't ever know for certain just how a player will play, stats like these do show a very clear trend. You are tying a lot of money up into 1 position at the expense of others. That much money requires elite level play.