People are freaking out over Kaleb Johnson's slow start

The general thought of him procreating leaves much to be desired

 

Najee always seemed like a good guy. As for the 3 down back thing, we just have different definitions of what that means. Yours is a more volume based and mine is skillset based. He certainly is durable enough for a massive workload, his skillset is just less than ideal to be out there a lot on 3rd downs (particularly in situations where he needs to be a receiving option). No worries there.

 

Got to give KJ a little time. He hasn't played in a regular season game yet. I am no fan of Warren, he just fumbles too many times. In the last year of his contract, so he is probably gone at season's end as well.

I'd like to see Sermon get a chance, good things happen when he has the ball.

 

I like Sermon as well. He's backed up some really good RBs and played behind some pretty good OLs. His 5th season and we're his 4th team. That's a bit of a red flag for a RB.

 

He's the Kenny Pickett of RBs.

 

So the stats say that an NFL RB loses a fumble once every 93.46 touches on average (over the past 5 years). Jaylen has lost 3 of 7 fumbles, so technically he is slightly better than NFL average in terms of ball security among RB's. Based on his total number of touches in his career, it would be expected on average for Warren to have lost 5.1 fumbles. Now, the other stat is what percentage of fumbles are lost in the NFL? The answer is 44% of fumbles are lost to the defense. This means that Warren losing 3/7 fumbles (43%) is neither lucky nor unlucky in regards to averages.

Basically the stats are saying that Warren is a slightly better than average back with ball security. I'm sure his moniker as a "fumbler" just has to do with how little our starting backs have fumbled over the past decade. Bell and Harris were both particularly sure handed, though Conner was just about the same as Warren when it came to fumbling. Harris fumbled only 6 times in 1315 touches (including post season), though it should be 7 since he somehow wasn't credited for dropping a perfect pitch from Russ in Philly last year. Assuming the average lost percentage, he would have lost 3 of those. The expected lost rate on average would be 14. Bell fumbled 8 times in Pittsburgh over nearly 1700 touches. One would assume he would lose 3.5 of those, average rate would have been 18.

So essentially all this means that Harris and Bell fumbled about 1/5 as much as the average back (Bell at 19% of average, Harris at 21% of average) and that Warren fumbles 3/5 as much as the average back (60% of average). So Warren fumbles 3x as much as Harris and Bell, but less than average. It just "feels" like he has a fumbling issue, when in reality he is a little bit better than average.

 

It just goes to show you how deep the pool of NFL RB's are (and why so many teams employ a tandem of some sort). There were literally 5 backs that were good enough to have made the roster this year (Warren, Gainwell, Johnson, Sermon, Nichols). That is why people say RB's are "dime a dozen". There are a ton of quality backs. There are very few "great" backs.

 

I notice he doesn’t have the balls to send you clown pictures

 

He does fumbles too much for the amount of touches. Now he doesn't have very many fumble losses, but that's luck of the draw that you , or your teammates fall on it. It's still a fumble. I Hope He does super great, because I'm a Steelers fan, and I want all the players in Black, and Gold to shine.
I hope he's MVP of the SB this year for us.

 

Well that is what he was replying to. My post had all the stats in there. He fumbles less than the average NFL per touch. His fumbles lost vs fumbles is exactly the NFL average rate. He isn't getting particularly lucky or unlucky in that department

I am just glad for you to get to see some good CB play this year. That is one part of the defense I am really looking forward to (as I am sure you are as well).

 

You can bash Najee for his play, but he acted like a professional after he had to share the snaps with Warren. A lot of guys in that situation being a first round pick would complain about it.

 

One thing about MT he won't tolerate fumbles, he believes in ball security
and rightfully so.

 

I am betting Kaleb has more carries than Jaylen.

 

Yeah, I've always spoken highly of his character and professionalism. He certainly wasn't a diva. I didn't care for him much as a player, but he seems rock solid as a persona and pro.

 

I never fell for the DJ stuff. I knew he didn't drop the ball that much. I might be totally wrong about Warrens fumbles, it just seem that way maybe, and then 1st thing in the preseason, he fumbles again. I'm not lying when I say I hope he freaking shines. When Najee was here I thought Najee was the better back, but Najee doesn't wear Black, and Gold, and Warren does. So goooooooo Warren.

 

I hope they all do better than we even imagine. I would like them to go with the hot hand , whomever that is.

 

The preseason fumble was a Great play by the defense, armchair critics can complain but I think it was more a defensive play than sloppy ball handling by Warren. Can he improve on this, yes. Warren is the bowling ball blocker and shifty runner and screen receiver but not a #1 back, 10-15 carries a game.

https://x.com/ThePoniExpress/status/1958668528565068064

 

He should have had two arms wrapped around the ball at that point

A fumble is a fumble