A few draft scenarios for discussion

From an article by Mike DeFabo with The Athletic. It's behind a paywall, but I'll list his picks below.

He identifies the primary needs as DL, RB, WR, QB, and CB. He covers them using their first five picks, so no seventh is listed. He uses the yearly "The Beast" draft compendium by Dave Brugler to estimate who is available when, along with assumed ripple effects.

#1
R1: Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
R3: Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech
R4: Savion Williams, WR, TCU
R5: Mac McWilliams, CB, UCF
R6: Kurtis Roarke, QB, Indiana
R7:

#2
R1: Omarion Hampton, RB, UNC
R3: Joshua Farmer, DT, Florida State
R4: Will Howard, QB, Ohio State
R5: Arian Smith, WR, Georgia
R6: Cobee Bryant, CB, Kansas
R7:

#3
R1: Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss
R3: Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee
R4: JJ Pegues, DT, Ole Miss
R5: Tai Felton, WR, Maryland
R6: Craig Woodson, DB, California
R7:

#4
R1: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
R3: Darius Alexander, DT, Toledo
R4: Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State
R5: Issac TeSlaa, WR, Arkansas
R6: Cam Miller, QB, North Dakota State
R7:

I'd probably go with the first if I had to choose. I like the Woodson, TeSlaa, and McWilliams picks.

 

Yeah #1 for me

 

Personally, they're all hard for me to say much about because I don't know who they presumably passed on.

The author had names for each one, stuff like "who says you can't take a RB in the first round?' The last one was "let's get weird." Naturally, you like it best. j/k

He did note with the Emmanwori scenario it would likely be with the team moving Fitzpatrick to regain the second round pick. Trouble there is even if another team is alright with his $15k base, a lot who are in the market for a safety don't have many draft picks. The Pats have two thirds; not sure that means they'd give up #38 (or 69 or 77) though.

I think it more likely than not they take a WR, but am not going to be upset if they don't. It's not just Pickens - they only have Metcalf, Wilson, and Skowernek under contract in 2026.

 

If they extend (or plan to) Pickens I could see them skipping WR. Metcalf/Pickens/Wilson/Skowernek would be fine heading into next offseason.

 

I like #1. Obviously Harmon is my top guy, but there's some interesting offensive firepower there with Tuten and Williams. An intriguing nickel prospect and Rourke, a guy I've pushed before. I don't know that he'll play this year, but he probably wouldn't have anyway. Let him have that redshirt year to heal that leg and learn the system.

I imagine they would try to find a way to get the ball in Williams hands while he learns how to be a wr. He really could act as a defacto #3 rb if necessary.

 

That's how I pitched him. Just like Smith used Patterson back in 2021/22.

 

here is one.

trade watt for a 2nd and late 3rd. we lose that contract.

1. jack sawyer. would give us highsmith, herbig, sawyer, moon.

2. alfred collins DT texas
3. tyler shough QB louisville
3. charles grant OT william and mary or tate ratledge OG georgia

 

Hell, Mike probably take Charles Grant in the 1st

 

In round 1 I hope we don't go RB, WR, or TE. Pretty much every other position group I am good.


On the RB front, if we do take one in the 1st, I think he will still fall into the size/weight or drafted workhorse RBs have usually been. 5'10-6'1" and around 220LBs. I honestly like the guy they brought in early from Clemson, Mafah.
I'm really not a fan of Tuten. When you watch his game film and highlights you see him start celebrating and holding the ball out in one hand as early as the 10 yard line going in. That's just not smart football and will not work out in the NFL. Yes, that is something that can be coached out of a player. I only mean from a smart player side of it.
I very much like Hampton. I don't think he will fall to 83 though and I just don't like RB at 21. If we do draft a RB at 21, Hampton would be one of the few I could stomach there. The Steelers seem to really like Gordon, out of OkState.

When it comes to DBs, snap count and experience matters. Guys that aren't ranked near the top of the list but have over 2500 snaps in college, for example, are still good picks. Those snap counts are experience and not wear and tear as with other defensive positions.

 

Current odds for a TJ Watt trade if you are betting kind of guy:

 

won't get that for TJ


https://lastwordonsports.com/nfl/20...ade-price-leaks-and-its-not-what-youd-expect/

 

If you correct about the internal feelings being different than the public sentiments, I could see this. They need to put money into the O, most line positions are still on rookie deals for a couple of years and (as of now) the QB will be relatively short lower CAP hit or cheaper rookie. Not the only team that has 2 quality WR under contract if they do it, the question is will GP sign, wait and possibly price himself out of this market. Have no idea his true value, it's not Chase, but I would think at least Tee (who might have got more if he was on the market). That's a lot of bread, but that could make a decent QB look very good.

 

No Detroit on that list? They have the draft capitol, are in win now mode, and he fills a need that they sorely missed last year. Would they get a first for TJ at this point, unlikely, but I would think at least 2 picks, a 2 and a 4/5, possible trading a lower draft pick TJ and 6 for a 2 and 4/5.

 

I get it, and what you get in the draft can't fill that hole, but at what point do you change direction? Do we continue the status quo, resign him to 40 plus million a year just to get a sack record, but remain in the doldrums of mediocrity? Likely he will be extended, and thats fine, but you build a team that can compete for the big prize, that takes 53, not a couple that gets you back door into the po's, then never show up beyond that to get you further. Not blaming TJ, but he shares in the abysmal post season's we have had the last few years.

 

Best player available could come from any position group. I just feel like this year it will be a QB or a DB.

 

I'd spring for Jeanty if he fell, but that's me. Agree with you on Hampton, but I think the Broncos might try for him at 20.

Regarding Mufah, I like him as a goal line/short yardage back, but otherwise I don't think he's much of a fit for the outside zone Smith likes to run. That's the predicament, though. Historically we've always had a complimentary back in terms of size/speed. In Tennessee Smith was lucky to have a Henry, who was a freak. Warren should do well if his body holds up, Gainwell is a 'tweener.

Late-third and beyond, it's unlikely they find a bigger back with speed. I've been looking at bigger guys who are at least elusive, or have good vision. Giddens is one, but he looks better at the second level than the backfield. I personally like how Martinez looked with Miami last year. Otherwise it's smaller, speed guys. One I'm on the fence with is Sampson. At first I dismissed him, but the more I've seen the more I like how he moves in tight quarters. He's not just that guy that goes 0,0,1, 35 yards. Still, he didn't see a ton of loaded boxes, either.

 

I like #4…. Emmanwori would be a good pick

 

You really didn't need to type this.

 

I'm going #2,but adding what @Steel_Elvis Elvis had in his mock

Trading back(which is what I said awhile back) and out of 1 getting Hampton in rd 2.
Be a great tandem in the backfield. Warren (FWP CUZ) and Hampton they would be pushing each other to excel.

Covers a lot of holes. DL, QB

Throw in all those UDFA that @mac daddyo loves to and it's Super Bowl.

 

I'm not on board with trading Watt. But I am also not on board with paying him a king's ransom. I'm hearing 4yrs/$160M with $125M guaranteed. That hurts my head.

 

I like the idea, but not sure Hampton clears it to the second round - the Commanders or even Ravens might make a move on him.