Najee says he had nobody to learn from

It's a fact that they didn't pick up his 5th year option so obviously they didn't love him like that poster tried to claim . It's a weak argument because he's wrong fans always say stupid stuff Tomlin loves Dan Moore type of comments, then why is Moore gone?

 

Lol, I keep running into this argument. His splits show that isn't the case - of 346 attempts he's only had 27 on third down, 5.2 YPC. On first down, 4.5; and on second, 5.4.

 

I get it, but I'm not saying any of that stuff to prop up an argument.

Occasionally I'll have an opinion, gut feel, etc., on something that there's as much to suggest isn't true as is for me to feel otherwise, but I state it as such.

 

You and SGS keep posting these stats I'm not impressed by no stats with a limited sample size.

 

That isn't a fact. That is an excuse based in dubious speculation.

 

You keep using that word (fact). It does not mean what you think it means.

 

Ask Kovacevic's former employees how well he understands working relationships.

 

There's nothing to discuss. You are blowing off $4 million in incentives. At best, that is misleading.

 

I mean, if you're viewing data with insufficient data points it can be seen this way.... Like I wouldn't imagine that a back that has 1-3 carries per game to give you a real valid sample size to base any real opinions on. This would make single outliers affect the data in too meaningful of a way.

But, yes. The numbers are being interpreted correctly imo. The data is pointing to Najee's YPC production going up as his role in the offense decreased. Meaning his worst YPC output was when his workload was highest, but it increased as his workload lessened. I still think that 17.5 touches per game is a large enough sample size to make the stats relevant for discussion. More attempts doesn't always mean less average YPC. Saquon Barkley had a ton of carries this past year and look what he did with it... The argument was that Najee didn't thrive in that situation and the reduced workload actually upped his production.

I was mostly just arguing steelersrule6's argument that the only reason that Najee wasn't that productive is because we gave too much of the workload to a "lesser back" and he would've thrived with the increased role. Now, to a point, yes... the overall stats will be higher with the higher load due to volume alone. For example, "RB A" rushes 1000 times for 1000 yards, and gained more yards than "RB B" who rushed 100 times for 900 yards. But, one performed MUCH better in their carries. My argument was that Najee didn't shine with the 22.5 touch per game workload. He stuffed a stat sheet with numbers that looked good, but his production was poor in getting there. As Warren took more workload from Najee, the production per carry went up. There's an easy explanation for that too, I think. We drafted Najee thinking he was going to be a three down, all-around stud much like Le'Veon Bell was for us. However, a year and a half in we realized that isn't who Najee was. We started taking him out a bit more so that we can put Warren in to run in shotgun situations, or take Najee out so we can put someone in that is actually dangerous in space. This meant that Najee got less carries that weren't in his "wheelhouse" and got mostly carries in sets that were beneficial to his success. Thus the runs he sucked at, he got less of, and therefore a larger share of his runs were the types of runs he was good at (base or jumbo set, single high rushes between the tackles). It is why he went from 3.7-3.8ish ypc early on to the 4.0 he's been at for the last two and a half years.

With Najee not being very high up the yards created past what is blocked list, the only true way to up his production is to block for him better. If you want 4.5 yards per carry from him, block him 4.5 yards. It means he will be very consistent. He is going to be healthy, available, a good teammate, and secure with the ball in his hands. He will get you exactly as many yards as you give him and then fall over. It's not a skillset with no value, it just isn't one that is highly valued in today's game. I've said for years he was born about 25 years too late for his style. He'd be a perfect late 90's early 2000's back. The game expects more of RB's in the modern NFL offense, and its made his value to the league lesser than what it could have been.

 

That take would ignore other variables. For example, the 2025 Steelers will have two excellent receivers on the outside, which creates more running room. The 2024 Steelers made it incredibly easy for defenses to focus on stopping the run.

Harris's long-term future is irrelevant tot his discussion. I don't think anybody was arguing for the Steelers to sign him long term. Many of us realize it was foolish to pass on the cost certainty of the fifth-year option and leave themselves with yet another hole to fill this offseason.

 

You don't have to bet, the stats are available for this....

Najee Harris faced 13.7% of his rushes in 2024 against a stacked box (8 or more defenders) and gained 2.4 ypc on those carries
Jaylen Warren faced 10.8% of his rushes in 2024 against a stacked box and gained 3.8 ypc on those carries

Teams stacked the box slightly less against Warren (2.9% less to be exact), but not significantly so. This accounts for 3 more stacked box rushes per 100 attempts, and is likely due more to formation usage per player more than anything. Warren actually out performed Najee in rushes into 7 and 8 man fronts (Warren - 4.0 vs 7, 3.8 vs 8 // Harris - 3.7 vs 7, 2.4 vs 8), while Najee outperformed Warren slightly against light boxes or 6 or less man boxes (Warren - 4.6 // Harris - 4.8). It wasn't due to blocking either since both backs were similar with stuffed runs (Warren 17.5% stuffed runs // Harris 19% stuffed runs). The stats just prove that Warren just got more of what wasn't blocked than Najee did, and by a pretty considerable margin.

There is no basis to say that Warren's YPC avg is boosted by 3rd down runs. I already proved that earlier in a separate thread when I tabulated all of Jaylen's biggest rushes (the ones that helped boost his YPC avg) and found that the overwhelming majority of them came on 1st and 2nd down. That has already been proven false, and IIRC you are quoted on the receipts.

This is the problem I have when arguing with you on this (good sport btw, really enjoying the back and forth here). You make a comment that is provably false ("No team is stacking the box on first down for Warren") and then make a guess as to why the stats don't line up with your belief ("Warren's average YPC is boosted by running on 3rd downs... I bet"). All of the answers are right at your fingertips. There are football nerds that keep track of all this stuff and post it online for free. You just gotta look for them.

This belief I have of Warren/Najee isn't one I just thought up and starting adamantly arguing. I watched the games and thought to myself "man, the offense looks SO much better when Warren is out there than when Najee is... why is that?" and I went and started looking at data. The data pointed to the probability that Warren is just a better back than Najee. I let some time (and additional data points) rack up and the outcome looks the same. If the data was contradictory to my personal belief... I would challenge my own belief and determine that there must be some personal bias keeping me from seeing it correctly. I wouldn't so adamantly argue a point with nothing to back it up... However, Warren looks like a better back on the field, he runs like a better back on the field, the advanced data shows that he is a better back.... so my conclusion is that I think Warren is a better back. But, as I have said all along, we're going to get to see if I am right this year. If Warren looks like a Najee-level bum, I will gladly admit that the STEELERS might've been the issue and not Najee all along. But, if Warren puts together a nice season, I hope you can admit you were wrong all the same.

 

Oh god, you're really reaching. It doesn't take a degree, from whatever college you went to, to be able to recognize when two people have a special relationship. They don't even have to be as smart as you are.

We get it, Warren hasn't proven that he can carry the load. The only thing that he has proven is that he can't stay healthy, and he fumbles constantly. We get it.

Letting Najee walk, instead of picking up his option, is a mistake that YOU WOULD'VE NEVER MADE. We get it.

WE GET IT!

 

Well it is 6 more yards than Najee would have gotten

Which is one more set of downs

Which is one more chance to score

 

He just took his job

 

346 snaps is not limited sample size

DAB

 

Make 3.75M guaranteed money

Dan Moore $50M guaranteed money

Pretty well shows what the Steelers and the rest of the NFL think of Najee

 

The stuff that is coming out of Najee is probably the reason the Steelers removed Najee as a team captain 2 years ago.

No leadership in the locker room??? Hey Najee, the offensive team captain is right over there in the mirror looking at you.

LOL the Offensive team Captains that year were Mitch Trubisky and Najee Harris.

 

The 3.75 is his bonus. The 1 year guarantee is $5.25 million (Bonus + Salary). He can then get another $4 million in incentives totaling $9.25 million per year.

The 1st year is the only guaranteed money in the contract at $5.25 million.

 

Is the board getting wonky for anybody else?

 

You are not correct

Guarantee is only $3.75

 

Post your link.

Over the Cap https://overthecap.com/player/najee-harris/9488



Same 5.25 GTD: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/72404/najee-harris

 

I think the 3.75 is the signing bonus. 1.5 million of the rest of the contract must be guaranteed in some way as well.

 

I'm not reaching at all. I'm mocking Kovacevic. Seriously, look it up.

So Tomlin loved Warren too much to bench him, but he couldn't get the team to keep him? Talk about reaching for nonsense, you just did it.

Speaking of your nonsense, I never wrote that Warren fumbles constantly or that he can't stay healthy. I pointed out that relative to Harris, ball security and durability are weaknesses in his game. The facts back that up. And no, now that you mentioned it, he has not proven that he can handle a starter's workload. The facts back that up, too.

That I wouldn't have made that particular error is irrelevant. That the error has left them with the choice of spending money on a free agent like Dobbins or Chubb or burning another draft pick when they have many other holes to fill is the issue. The Steelers' best option was to run it back with Harris and Warren, but they dropped the ball on that one. If they fix that issue in the draft, that is one resource they wouldn't have had to give up if they had played the situation better.

 

Yeah, keep going man.

 

Well if so, why do you keep bringing them up? First you claim Warren only has a high YPC when he has limited carries in a game, then you state his 3rd down runs artificially balloon the rest of runs. When stats are shown that suggest (key word) otherwise, suddenly you don't need no stinkin' small batch stats.

This is just unserious bickering on your part.