Kenneth Gainwell

I'm not sure how to make it more clear for you. Durability isn't binary. It isn't durable or not. There are levels to it. Put someone like JK Dobbins on end of the spectrum, Najee Harris on the other, and Warren somewhere in the middle. Harris has a rare level of durability. I never wrote that 250 carries is some Herculean feat, but Warren hasn't made it to 150 in one season yet. Gibbs, Swift, and Jones all reached that number for the first time last season, but they haven't always been as durable while Harris has never been under 255 carries.

Last season was the first Swift didn't miss a game. Gibbs missed time as a rookie in 2023. Jones missed six games in 2023 and two more in 2021. Warren missed two and was severely limited in others last season. The difference is those guys were carrying a much heavier workload than Warren has as a pro, which makes him breaking down last season even more concerning.

Warren has never run the ball more than 15 times in an NFL game. He has never averaged even nine carries per game. Of course his ability to do more is a question mark, especially with the multiple injuries last season.

Darn those inconvenient numbers.

 

Those are the most subjective statements of all. But, keep trying.

(and there is nothing subjective about whether a carry resulted in a first down. you don't know the meaning of the word obviously)

 

Please try to follow along. I prefer objective statistics over subjective. In no way is it contradictory for me to share subjective opinions after making that statement.

My point was that whether or not a carry results in a first down is objective, which makes it better than that subjective nonsense you tried presenting as if it was valid. Neither of those statistics account for the disadvantages Harris dealt with last season. If you don't realize that the quarterback play was erratic at best, the line was shaky as it dealt with a series of injuries, and the lack of a valid starting receiver opposite Pickens crippled the offense and made it too easy for defenses to stack the box against Harris, I have no idea which team you were watching last season but it wasn't the Steelers.

 

Najee's a bum. He was an available bum that didn't fumble, but a bum nonetheless. He'd flash for 3 games a year (usually all in a row) and then fizzle out into a vintage 18 carries for 67 yards performance after ripping off a 20+ yard run late in the 4th quarter with the game in hand.

Warren isn't an injury problem. He was banged up a bit last season, but only missed 2 games. Nothing long term, just some minor injuries that popped up. He missed one his rookie year. He also isn't too small to be a primary back. There isn't a reasonable argument that should make us worry that he won't be able to handle 15-17 carries a game. He's been good enough to be afforded the opportunity to run with the job, and I am excited to get him more involved in the offense. We let Najee walk, not because we couldn't afford him or we lowballed a big time player, but because his play on the field wasn't good enough to earn a second contract. Luckily for us we have a back on the roster already that has outperformed him on the field for the past couple years. Nobody is going to miss Najee here in short order.

 

Please don't imply that I am the one being rude here just because I threw your words back at you. That simply is not true.

You claimed that there are no question marks with Warren. That is incorrect. He hasn't proven he can do what a lead back needs to do. He doesn't protect the ball nearly as well as Harris. He hasn't shown he can stay healthy. Those are question marks. Just because top backs like Gibbs and Jones and a very good one like Swift can do something doesn't mean Warren can do it.

 

He missed two games, but was severely limited for more. I wouldn't call him injury prone, but he certainly isn't as durable as Harris.

 

I'm not that impressed by 5.3 YPC when you only carry the ball about 8 times a game, and many of them coming on third downs.

 

I like the signing., Scouts better bring in another in later rounds.

 

Cut Patterson now , very quickly, immediately, like yesterday even. Have Gainwell be the back you wished Patterson still was 10 years ago. Draft Hendrickson or a stud RB in the 3rd or 4th and hope Warren doesnt fail as a #1 to start the season otherwise we screwed up by letting Harris go.

 

I think we will all be pleasantly surprised by Gainwell.

 

And on first and second down he wasn't much different than Najee, that third down average boosts his YPC .

 

Harris wasn’t useless when he had the foot injury, and he wasn’t limited all of that season.

Didn’t Warren also miss time as a rookie? Harris has never missed a start despite a much heavier workload.

I didn’t claim that Warren has a fumbling problem, but he doesn’t secure the ball nearly as well as Harris. He also seems to really struggle with bad weather. Harris doesn’t have that problem, either.

Third down backs don’t face stacked boxes. They don’t get many touches in short yardage, either. Thawed are factors that affect that average per carry that have nothing to do with the player’s ability.

I am not reaching at all despite your false claims to the contrary. I’m just not ignoring or dismissing the strengths of either player.

 

It is much easier to maintain a higher average per carry as a backup who is getting far fewer carries. I'm genuinely surprised so many folks on this board don't get that concept.

 

With that small of a sample size (both ways) it's hard to draw anything relevant out conclusively.

Obviously Warren has had a smaller number of carries over his entire career than Harris, so this comparison needs be taken with a certain grain of salt. But here are the career splits by down for both.

1st down (att/yd/TD)
Harris: 652/2606/18...4.0 ypc
Warren: 188/837/2.....4.5 ypc

2nd down
Harris: 388/1497/8....3.9 ypc
Warren: 125/681/4....5.4 ypc

3rd down
Harris: 49/197/1........4.0 ypc
Warren: 27/140/0......5.2 ypc

4th down
Harris: 8/12/1...........1.5 ypc
Warren: 6/16/0.........2.7 ypc

There are pros and cons to any player. My eyes see a more dynamic back in Warren. He's got greater burst through the hole, speed in the open field, and is a capable blocker. Harris is a rock; he isn't flashy, but he's dependable, durable, elite ball security, gets the tough yards. Underrated as a receiver (look back at his rookie stats). I like the duo as a tandem, but I wish they would have tried flipping to Warren as the feature back while both were still here and Harris could be the safety net if things went south.

And I'll plug again here (shamelessly ) that I think they should have picked up Harris' option for that reason, and also to hold off on having to find a replacement while they take care of addressing other needs. From what they've done thus far you can't tell me that had the money fixed to go elsewhere!

 

It isn't an exaggeration at all. They had to pull him from a game because he couldn't hold onto the ball in slick conditions. Harris has handled bad weather just fine throughout his career.

That gap in average per carry mostly comes from third downs.

 

Warren got far more carries in passing situations, when there is more open room to run. A far larger percentage of Harris's carries on third down were in short yardage, which were going to negatively affect his average per carry. Come on, Blast. You know these things.

 

You know there are passing situations on first and second downs sometimes, too, right?