Would You Draft a Running Back in Round 1?

When he slots Henderson to the Steelers in the 2nd round of a mock draft I'm reminded of when Wheel of Fortune made 'RSTLNE' a given as letters picked in the final puzzle.

 

It shouldn't take this long if you have competent drafting and coaching. KC completely retools just about every season. Ravens restock lost pieces. Steelers stumble and bumble.

Steelers take Kendrick Green.
Ravens take Linderbaum.

Steelers take Freiermuth.
Ravens take Andrews.

Steelers take Claypool.
Ravens take Flowers

There is a great study comparing teams drafts over the last 10 years. While the Steelers have done ok compared to the rest of the league, Ravens have killed it.
I'll post the link if I can find it.

 

If he calls that far I'd be torn between taking him or a trade back.. I lean take him because this isn't Najee, he's got actual game breaking playmaking ability

 

The should have/could have arguments on drafts kind of make me chuckle. Andrews was drafted in 18, Muth 20. Linderbaum in 20, should we have taken him, no argument, but we also needed a TE, they chose Muth. You can look at the success of one and say we missed, oh well. No doubt the Ravens FO has drafted well and developed as well, but the choice they made for one over the other was not something you can predict future success over.

No argument over the head scratching Green pick, there were established C still in the board, they picked a G (whose rating at that pick might even be questioned) and tried to convince themselves he was a starting NFL C. Don't get me wrong, there are plenty of gaffes in Colbert's approaches the last years he was here, the 18 draft in particular was brutal in hindsight, but the we could have had ??? is assuming that player would have also been developed and played well in our system.

 

Never said "we could have had". I am simply comparing talent evaluations between the two teams. Steelers have been below the line compared to Ravens scouting. (There is a reason Kahn purged the scouting dept when he took over). And if the Steelers have a similar attitude to scouting as they do their coaching, we can assume their scouting dept is bare bones compared to the rest of the league.

Here's another choice they just made in 2024; took the 5th rated OT, rather than the #1 rated CB. That choice can already be questioned.

 

i can agree with that. Kahn's first 2 drafts have produced some intriguing talent, the FA p/u/s are a mixed bag, but we rarely do a big splash in FA. Outside of the QB position the holes are more than one draft can fill and finally with some decent CAP space those holes can be filled through the FA process, but you have to have all phases in place to build, keep, and develop a roster, we lack a lot in that final phase.

 

Now look at the o-line.

 

Tomlin seems all about drafting for need and not BPA. Then he also wants his project players that he thinks he can coach up, but is 0 for 30 something at this point.

Skipping Creed Humphreys for Muth, and then reaching for Green as a Center was moronic. Completely sabotaged Bens final season.

I'm still hoping Kahn course corrects our draft approach, but not optimistic.

 

The Steelers have Frazier who will be a better player than Linderbaum, Andrews and Freiermuth are about the same and the Ravens haven't won anything with these drafts .

 

Technically Frieirmuth was drafted in 2021, Linderbaum 2022. The center they passed on in '21 was Humphrey, which was a mistake IMO. They were still valuing skill positions over foundational because it was Ben's final year.

Agree with your point on the comparison of picks to other teams. There are transcendent talents out there, but by and large you have to focus on who you picked for your system and evaluate how they turned out. Draft picks, particularly those within the top 100, are valuable commodities, and the Steelers did a mostly subpar job managing them toward the end of Colbert's tenure.

Player (pick #)

2016
Burns (25)
Davis (58)
Hargrave (89) - good pick, wasn't retained

2017
Watt (30)
JuJu (62)
Sutton (94)

2018
Edmunds (28) - reach, poor value
Washington (60)
Rudolph (76)
Okorafor (92)

2019
Bush, Jr (10) - big miss
Johnson (66)
Layne (83)

2020
(Fitzpatrick)
Claypool (49)
Highsmith (102)

2021
Harris (24)
Freiermuth (55)
Green (87)

2022
Pickett (20)
Pickens (52)
Leal (84)

 

Not in any universe are Andrews and Muth 'about the same'....

Anyway here's an independent analysis ranking drafts in the last 10 years (2015-2023). The author uses PFR's Approx Value and draft positions to rank the picks. While the Steelers have done just ok, the Ravens are crushing it. Check the columns labeled 'Stars' and 'Steals'.



For a complete explanation, follow the link: Value vs. Expectation in the NFL Draft: Team Rankings | by Billy Pencil | Medium

 

Damn that list really shows how far Colbert and co. had fallen. Some showed promise, Ju Ju, even Washington, but you cannot miss on that many picks over that many years and build a successful franchise. The jury's still out on Omar, the first couple of drafts have produced starters and this might be a foundation. That said, we fill some holes and like a sieve more appear, lol. I thought it would take 3 drafts and FA periods to produce a foundational and team with core depth to get to a truly competitive state. By competitive I mean a team that is in a place to get playoff wins and where you can look for the couple of missing pieces to get you to a true SB window. That of course means finding a QB who can compete on that level. Not sure we are truly even getting to 'competitive' state any time soon.

 

And how many Super Bowl appearances do the Ravens have with all of this talent and a two time MVP at QB

 

And you can do this for just about every NFL team.

 

You used players taken in different rounds of different drafts. Flowers and Linderbaum were first-round picks. Green and Claypool were not.

Don't get me wrong. The Ravens have done a better job acquiring players, but the way you supported that doesn't hold up.

Also, to be fair, they got a strong season out of Claypool, then Khan managed to sucker the Bears into giving up a second-round pick for him.

 

Maybe, maybe not. The point is to look at what you can do better organizationally, not worry about how everybody else has done.

 

Yep, they leaned into skill players for too long and let the trenches get away from them. I get that Ben was still around, but I think back to how the Broncos handled Elway's later years, putting together a good o-line and rushing attack to take some of the burden off his shoulders.

 

Again, I'm talking about having an eye for talent vs non-talent, contributors vs stars. I wasn't trying to do an 'if only' draft.

 

No, too many other needs. I like our RB room, it’s the guys up front, both O and D that I would continue to build. It’s early but I think they’re going to go D line early this time around.

 

I understand that, but a more relevant context would have made your comparisons better.

 

Without Harris, the running back room is weak. Patterson has nothing left. Warren demonstrated why counting on him to carry a heavier workload is a mistake by struggling to stay healthy in 2024. The Steelers are going to need to add at least one running back, though it would make no sense to spend a first-round pick on one after letting a relatively cheap Harris walk.

 

Apparently @SGSteeler hasn't introduced you to TreyVeon Henderson yet.

 

Started listening to Tomlins wants.