Cap Space

And...? Every personnel grouping in that link includes at least 2 WRs except 13 personnel. And as I said above, the Steelers passed 57% of the time they were in a formation that included at least 2 WRs. I'm not seeing your link countering that.

But it does show other teams that run 3 WR sets less often than the Steelers and yet have invested in two (at least) primary WRs: the 49ers (Aiyuk and Samuel, drafted Pearsall in R2 last year), Dolphins (Hill and Waddle), and Bears (Moore and Allen, drafted Ozune in R1 last year).

EDIT: Sigh. I didn't see at first look the data in the link is strictly from the first halves of the preseason games last year. Come on, man.

 

I mean, there's a breaking point for everyone and there's a couple of quality WR's on the market. We are definitely at least going to be a part of the Higgins chase. Godwin seems like a nice consolation prize too. Though, Higgins is definitely the biggest name.

 

Yeah, I just wonder what Johnston's dead money would be if we cut him... and he is the better player too. We will see

 

Payton Wilson, Frazier and McCormick saved the '24 draft from total disaster. Roman Wilson and Troy Fautanu are unproven, injury prone and may not ever take a NFL snap.

 

The point still stands. You don't pay $30M for a WR2. That is roster mismanagement. And Higgins is no WR1.
And regardless of how many WRs are on the field, it doesn't mean squat when they are not targeted.

My bad. But the point still stands. $30M for a WR2 is roster mismanagement for a primarily run oriented offense.

 

i don't want higgins here. too many injuries and missed time. he has lower body injuries all the time that pop up out of nowhere. soft tissue problems i read.

 

$2 million, $1 million post June 1. Kuntz would be $200k dead money if he's cut.
One big reason we have as much as we do is a lack of dead money and void contracts- only $45 k. In comparison, Browns have $43 million, Ravens $29 million, and Cincy $358 k.

 

I would have my concerns about giving Godwin big money that was a serious injury.

 

You're good, it happens. Caught me off guard when I doubled back to check something and saw the data range.

The Eagles pass play percentage this year was 44%; 54% last year. The Steelers were 51% and 53%, respectively. Last April, the Eagles extended both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith - the AAV of Brown's extension was $33M (with $84M guaranteed), Smith's was $25M ($51M in new guarantees). This was on top of having Hurts at a $51M AAV and Barkley at $12.5M.

I'm not saying we need to copy the Eagles spending, just that it can be done. Not to mention, the Steelers won't be laden with a Hurts contract anytime soon. Wilson and Fields are bridge QBs, and even if they went after Darnold he's not getting north of $40M. And next year's crop of free agent QBs is just as bad. The top four options currently are Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith, Gardner Minshew, and Tyrod Taylor.

That's another reason it behooves the FO to leverage their situation at QB by putting as much talent as they can around it. I'm not advocating for them to overspend. They need to be sensible about it, but Van Jefferson - hardly the talent of a Godwin or Higgins - still managed to accrue 40 targets. And the better the offense gets, the more they stay on the field -> more plays -> more targets.

You can argue whether you consider some of these guys to be worth a huge contract, but I think it naive to dismiss the idea entirely because paying two WRs seems less traditional. Besides, we don't really know if Pickens will fully develop, or whether the FO wants to offer him something long term. Either way, they need more talent at the position heading into next year.

 

The Eagles are young on defense for the most part they can afford to spend big on offense.

 

FA is a crap shoot. Yeah Godwin's injury wasn't good, but Higgins has had Burrow as his QB and Chase as his #1 (not to mention the myriad of soft tissue injuries that keep him out a few weeks a year). It's not like he is a risk-free option either. We just gotta trust the team doctors that check him out and go from there.

 

Every team has a blend, which is why good scouting and development are important. The more talented young players, the better; they're generally cheaper, and it frees up money for complimentary veteran talent.

Philly has $131M of their cap committed to their offense; Pittsburgh, $56M. Conversely, the Eagles have $93M invested in the defense, the Steelers $177M. The Steelers not only need to invest more in their offense ($56M is Oakland A's level of low), but manage the defensive dollars more efficiently. The unique situation with Wilson and Fields in terms of salary was turned from a win to a loss when the surplus money was fed into a bloat on defense. End result was a below average offense that then disadvantaged that over-invest on defense.

If you go by OTC's valuation metric, here's a quick look at a few of the larger cap numbers on defense and how they look heading into 2025:

Player......2024 cap hit...Valuation...2025 cap hit
Heyward.....$12.6M........$18.7M.......$19.6M......This turned out well, but 2025 will be a challenge.
Fitzpatrick...$21.3M........$5.6M.........$22.3M......Terrible.
Ogunjobi....$13.2M.........$1.8M.........$10.5M......Again, Terrible.
Highsmith...$6.7M..........$8.6M.........$18.6M......Pretty good for 2024, but look out in 2025.
Queen........$6.1M...........$7.2M........$17.6M......Same as Highsmith.

You're always going to have some over- and under-performers, but as the discrepancies get larger, so do the problems (uneven play, stress on cap space, etc.). It's also customary to have vets that are an overpay, but it needs to be reasonable, and needs some young talent that offsets it.

While there have been some wins with signings/trades/drafts (and some bad luck in the way of injuries with the latter) the FO hasn't done a particularly good job in either resource allocation or efficiency. Hopefully they course correct a bit this offseason.

 

I'm not even worried about them signing Higgins because it's not going to happen.

 

Cooper might be washed he didn't do much to help Buffalo.

 

And until the Bengals decide to have a training camp and get players ready for season, they will not be in contention at the end.

 

What about Cam Johnston, I think he is around 3m

I'm good if they roll with Waitman at punter.

 

He honestly didn't even cross my mind. They could always go the UDFA route to pick up a new punter as well... good call.

 

Fautanu started one game as a rookie.

 

I remember Fautanu playing in preseason. Don't remember him starting vs Falcons.

 

I've wondered about Cooper, too. It's not unheard of for a player to hit a wall at some point later in the career, the decline in his production this year was staggering. He came into the year with a 17-game average of 81/1152/7 (injury adjusted: 74/1054/7). Then posts 44/547/4 in 14 games between Cleveland and Buffalo.

There's no indication of decline in his time with Cleveland - he finished 2023 being targeted 128 times, going 72/1250/5 over 15 games - and he's only 30. So I think he's viable, and should also be cheaper (Spotrac estimates a 2yr/$30M market for him). Diggs' reported attitude issues are a turn off for me, especially if Pickens is in the same room.

I like him, maybe more than Higgins and Godwin, because of the value proposition. Their current stock is driving their market a little higher than they may be worth.

 

Good post. This just confirms my opinion that the culture of Steeler football has to change.