You don't get starting QBs after round 1 / Grooming Ben's replacement

There's been plenty of posts on here about drafting a QB later and grooming him to take over for Ben, which makes steam come out of my ears. First of all it's way too early for that, second of all... it doesn't work.

I've argued my case here plenty, but saw this article proving my point and thought I'd share.

http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftrumormill.php

 

I don't disagree, your more prone to get a bona fide talent in Round 1. But, you can find a talented QB in a later round. Take Tom Brady Round 6, Colin Kaepernick Round 2, Russell Wilson Round 3 for example.

Of course there are way more talented QB's that are take in Round 1. But, this year's draft class has a low talent pool on QB's. I don't see anybody worthy of a Round 1 pick. But someone will draft Matt Barkley in Round 2.

 

You can always point to the exceptions to the rule, but you shouldn't draft a QB in round 3 and expect him to at some point lead you to a Superbowl.

There's not going to be another Tom Brady situation, so don't count on it. And let's not count Russel Wilson and Colin Kaepernick as success stories yet. Yes they both look to have very bright futures, but we've seen plenty of guys regress after a strong first season.

The point of the article is there are very few starting QBs not drafted in round 1, let alone guys that are capable of carrying a team to a championship.

 

I understand that you're more likely to get a bonafide talent in round 1, especially at the QB position. But there is nothing wrong with trying to find a quality backup in the mid rounds (3-6) who could eventually develop into a quality starter. Brady was a 6th round pick, Montana was a 3rd round pick and we've already mentioned Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick as QBs taken outside the first round.

Given their backup QB situation, I really believe the Steelers should consider drafting a QB as early as round 3 this year. Someone who could serve as a quality backup to Ben and possibly develop into a starter. No one on the free agent market really excites me and the Lefty and Batch show has pretty much run its course. I can see maybe keeping Batch for one more year to groom a young guy to step in as the backup. While there doesn't appear to be a can't miss prospect like an Andrew Luck or RG3 at the top this year, there does appear to be an abundance of mid-round prospects that have good size, arm strength and mobility and that you might be able to possibly groom into something special.

Lastly, I think we all need to keep in mind that Ben has missed parts of the last several seasons because of injury (or stupidity). His body has taken more of a beating than most QBs because of his unwillingness or inability to get rid of the ball in a timely fashion. For crying out loud, he almost had his aorta punctured last year because he waited and waited and waited and waited and was finally slammed to the ground by two 300 pound gorillas. If he doesn't change, or at least tweak, his style I really believe that Ben's career will be cut short. Because of that, I don't think it's unreasonable at all to be thinking QB this year. We missed out on Kirk Cousins last year and who on this MB would not have taken Russell Wilson over Sean Spence in the third round knowing what we know now with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight?

If you've got steam coming out of your ears now, SBD, what's going to happen when the Steelers actually draft a QB this year?

 

I think I had a completely different reaction to the article than most. For me what I saw was guys that were taken in the first round, who suck. The article to me says, yes you are likely to be a starter as a first round pick, but that doesn't mean they will be good either.

 

WHY?!

I just showed you the numbers that says a 3rd round quarterback most likely won't become a starter... Let alone the fact that he'll sign a 4 year contract, when Ben has 5+ years left as our QB. It makes no sense to waste a draft pick that early on a backup. ESPECIALLY when our team currently has so many holes at starting positions.

I don't understand why people continue to say "yeah but what about Montana and Brady?" You just named 2 quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. Not only that, but the game is changing so that more QBs get pushed up higher in the draft because it's become a passing league, which means the pickings are REALLY slim after the first round. Moreso than when Brady and Montana were drafted.

As to your question of drafting a QB, I never said don't draft a QB. I have my current mock with us taking Zac Dysert in round 5. I think he is smart and could develop into a pretty good backup, but he can't make all the throws required to be an NFL starter.

I also don't want just a starter, I want a special QB. I don't want a Tony Romo or Matt Schaub.

 

But they're still probably the top 32 QB's in the league, whether they're good or not.

Sure there's (lots of) misses in the first round. But there's way more hits in round 1 than all the rounds after that combined.

 

Just for you JackAttack. Here are the 3rd round quarterbacks drafted in the past 10 years. Russell Wilson is the only guy in the group that you could argue COULD become a franchise quarterback. I'm not ready to give him that after 1 year, but you could argue it. Matt Schaub gets a thumbs up as a legitimate starter, but not much more.

Look at that list and tell me you still think it's a good idea to grab a QB in round 3 to be our starter.

2012: Russell Wilson, Nick Foles
2011: Ryan Mallett
2010: Colt McCoy
2009: None
2008: Kevin O'Connell
2007: Trent Edwards
2006: Charlie Whitehurt, Brodie Croyle
2005: Charlie Frye, Andrew Walter, David Greene,
2004: Matt Schaub
2003: Dave Ragone, Chris Simms
2002: Josh McCown

 

first round qb busts
Tebow
Leinart
Grossman
Leftwich
Russell
Ramsey
Pennington
Quinn
Boller
Losman
Young
Carr
Harrington
Cambell

 

Again... I'm not saying 1st round quarterbacks don't bust. I'm saying that (nearly) all of the special quarterbacks come from the first round.

strummerfan, you're just muddying the debate with irrelevant information.


Now, give me a list of every "franchise" quarterback and breakdown the round drafted and that'd be useful. I think looking more recent makes it more relevant since the draft has changed lately to push quarterbacks further up draft boards.

 

My point is, if we want a franchise QB that can lead us through the postseason, we have to take a chance in round 1.

 

You don't consider schaub a franchise qb?

 

Just under 50% of all superbowl winners have been led by qb's not drafted in the first round. The problem they face isn't a lack of talent it's developing that talent.

 

I may be picky, but I don't see Schaub as a guy I'd want running my 2 minute drill in the playoffs. I could see the argument for it I guess, he's 1-1 in the playoffs after squeaking past the Bengals and then losing big to New England. Obviously that's not all on him.

I guess I'd say he's borderline.

 

I'm not sure what your point is. If it was only a matter of development, wouldn't you see good coaches only draft late round QBs?

 

agree but as you mention before if you think ben will be the sterter for the next 5 years we don't need to draft a qb at all now , we can take a veteran free agent as a bu

 

trouble is we have no money to pay a FA qb. we still need a backup. why is it this lower draft pick has to be bens replacement? i don't hear kirk cousins raising heck about being rg3's backup. i don't hear mallett complaining because he's sitting behind brady. i never heard kapernick complain he was behind smith.

it's not just qb's either. would you make it a point to draft your next starting franchise LT from rounds 3-7? no you would most likely do it in rounds 1 -2. or your go to wr? do you think the steelers drafted AB in round 6 to be our new leading wr? no, you do draft on potential and things you see that the guy does well and go with it.

sometime it works out better then expected and unless you have a crystal ball that says ben will play for 5 more years and in 4 get his replacement just beacause he's a 1st rounder, you are really gambling that this mystery guy will be there waiting for you. at least beforehand you can see what you have, and a team still needs a backup.

what happens if the 3rd rounder just ends up being better then any other FA vet thats sitting out there now not starting? have you made a bad investment because he's not taken the franchise guys spot?

 

What?! Kevin O'Connell and Dave Ragone are beasts. What are you talking about SBD?

In all seriousness, I understand the point you're trying to make here and it's a valid one, but I still believe that we need to draft a QB this year who could be an instant backup to Ben and could develop into a good starter. The fact of the matter is, Ben is a once in a generation QB. The Steelers really struggled at the QB position between Bradshaw and Ben. But that doesn't change the fact that we have to be ready once Ben retires and it is prudent to make sure that we have a good, young quarterback who is capable of stepping in if Ben is hurt. Are you content to keep Leftwich and Batch as the backup QBs? The Steelers may or may not have the opportunity to draft another QB like Ben in our lifetime. All the stars lined up just right to give us the chance to to that. But we've got to be able to field a quality backup QB in the event that Ben is unable to take the field. The fact is that in between the Bradshaws and Bens, we're going to have to try to find ways to win with the O'Donnels and Stewarts of the world. And we can do that. We should have won the Super Bowl with Neil O'Donnel as our QB. We had a complete team surrounding him. Ben cannot carry us on his shoulders forever and we've got to have a quality, young QB who is hungry and wants to prove something as his backup. You can argue that this isn't the year to do that but as you mentioned you have Zac Dysert in your mock and I think that would be a good pickup for the Steelers. He may just be Zac Dysert. Then again, it's about time for that late round, diamond in the rough QB to emerge once again. It's been 15 years since Brady came out of nowhere. Maybe Zac Dysert is the next Tom Brady. You don't know that. I don't know that. He's worth a flier in the later rounds. I've heard some former scouts say that their philosophy is to bring in a new, young arm every year via the late rounds of the draft and let them prove what they have. I don't necessarily agree with bringing one in every year, but I'd think about it every 3 years or so.

If it were up to me I'd take a flier on Matt Barkley or Mike Glennon in the 2nd to 3rd round range this year. At least it would show Ben that the Steelers do plan to move on at some point and are planning for the future. Ben just doesn't seem as hungry as he once was. Let's face it, his two critical interceptions against the Cowboys and the Bengals late in the year cost us the post season. How long has it been since he's led a 4th quarter comeback? Has he had one since the magical moment against the Cards in the Super Bowl? I don't believe he has. He seems to have lost some of his magic. Don't get me wrong, I still believe Ben is an almost elite QB, but what would be wrong with bringing someone in besides Methuselah Batch and Rip Van Winke Leftwich to push him a little?

 

I still believe that we need to draft a QB this year who could be an instant backup to Ben and could develop into a good starter.

I don't think any QB we would draft would become the instant backup. Even if we ended up with Barkley or Glannon, they'd be the #3 behind Charlie.



Are you content to keep Leftwich and Batch as the backup QBs?

No. I think it's time to move on from Leftwhich, because he can't stay healthy. I would keep Charlie this season, and draft a QB in round 5-6 have him compete with another camp arm like Jerrod Johnson for the 3rd spot. In 2014 we move on from Charlie and hopefully the rookie from this season is ready to be the #2.



If it were up to me I'd take a flier on Matt Barkley or Mike Glennon in the 2nd to 3rd round range this year. At least it would show Ben that the Steelers do plan to move on at some point and are planning for the future.

This is where you and I really disagree I have no issue with drafting a young guy and crossing our fingers he's our starter one day. To take a guy that early now is just a huge waste. No I don't KNOW that Ben will go 5 more years, but history shows it's pretty damn likely. We'd take Barkley and play him when Ben's hurt and if he shines then we probably trade him, but do you really think we'd get more than the 2nd rounder that we spent on him? OR we can't trade him and he leaves after his contract expires in 4 years, because there's no pro QB that gets drafted in the 2nd round that's going to sign an extension to stay a backup... He's getting the hell out of here. Right?

Look at Washington & Cleveland this past offseason. Washington saw a guy that was special and pulled the trigger, and got to the playoffs. Cleveland waited to grab a guy that many considered to have a 2nd or 3rd round grade and they're picking 6th, and likely looking for ANOTHER quarterback this season.

 

I get the point that alot of the franchise QB's come from the 1st round. And there are alot of busts too, and good QB's that come from later rounds. But this is definitely not the year to draft a QB in the 1st round. The talent just is not there, and with other needs that need to be addressed first, there is no way this happens. But we do need a serviceable back up, and who knows what that back up could become with a few years watching and learning. But a serviceable backup is not a franchise QB, but someone who can get the job done when called upon. Someone who is smart with the ball, has confidence, and can get a win when Ben is hurt. And thats exactly what we will be aiming for in this draft somewhere. Idk what round but we will draft a QB. And we could find a good serviceable back up in later rounds i.e. Kirk Cousins, Matt Flynn, T.J. Yates etc. All those guys can win and get the job done when needed. It might not be pretty, but it a win is a win. And who knows when some team might stumble upon the next Tom Brady.

 

Cleveland is a perfect example of what I think strummerfan was talking about. They have repeatedly drafted promising young QBs (and Wheedon, who wasn't so young), and failed to develop them. Is that because they were busts? Maybe in some cases (e.g. Tim Couch). In other cases, they've just messed them around (Colt McCoy).

You could say something similar about Dennis Dixon. He was drafted reasonably high as a "project" - and then not used at all in any recognisable project way, just sat on the bench and when he came on played as well as someone who sits on the bench would do. And that was a waste.

 

To clarify, by backup I mean either a #2 or a #3 guy. If we draft a young guy I would have no problem, in fact would think it to be wise, keeping Batch around to help groom the young guy as the #2. You say to draft a young guy in rounds 5 or 6 and I would be perfectly fine with that, so essentially we agree that the Steelers need to draft a young QB this year to come in and compete.

It's interesting that you bring up Washington. They did see a QB that was special and pulled the trigger. This QB helped them get into the playoffs this year and played extremely well when called upon. His name....Kirk Cousins. They saw the value in having a top notch backup QB who could step in and play winning football in the NFL so they went out and got one in the 2nd round (or was it the 3rd?). To me, that's an excellent strategy and one the Steelers should consider.

 

Personally, I prefer to get someone who is a vet to throw on this team along with Charlie, at least at this point. I look at the guy we brought in last year as an option, and I would consider looking at the Eagles. They are going to cut someone, and I doubt its Dennis Dixon or Michael Vick. That leaves Foles or Edwards. Edwards is no stud, but he does have starter experience, is about 2 years younger than Ben, is a vet, and could be competent for a game or 2 maybe even 3. Foles performed well in his small audition, but he doesn't fit the new offense. Talk about wasting time on development.

 

why let hoyer go and kept lefty?

 

The fact is that we don't need someone who can carry us to the promised land.. we already have that.. what we need is a back up who can hold things together if/when our franchise guy gets hurt... someone in the mold of a tj yates... the whole debate about where to get a franchise qb in the draft is moot for us for at least 4 or 5 yrs......even so, you can probably find examples on nearly every team in the league that found a gem under center later in the draft (brady, esiason, montana etc... ), or even free agency (kurt warner, warren moon)....all we need is a young stud who we can plug and play in case of emergency (jerrod johnson).