The current WR Situation

Perhaps you could restrict your conspiracy theory about Harris to one thread until there is something valid to go on. Thanks.

 

their is nothing wrong with my thinking skill pal. i wasn't a sports writer turned into a HS English teacher. i coached football as a head coach and was brought back after retirement to help bridge a gap in the next one. i also had my own quite successful business for 27 years. i hold a master electrician license. i was a licensed electrical contractor in 3 states. plus a college football head coach. i think i have done very well with my thinking skills. it took you all day for that weak response. i knew it would come too. that probably ate at you all day. so sad.

 

The poster does protest too much, me thinks.

I hate to ruin your odd little fantasy, but I responded as soon as I saw your post. I gave it the minimal thought it deserved. The only question I have is how a former football coach doesn't know that any decent position coach will keep it positive when speaking about his players at this point in the season.

Before anybody jumps on this, I will point out that you are the one who brought our backgrounds into this and you are the one who went off in response to a gentle jab at your thought process regarding this discussion. You seem quite cranky. Maybe you should take a nap or east a Snickers bar or something.

 

Najee belongs in the Najee thread and Courtland Sutton belongs in the WR thread. I don't think I mentioned Courtland Sutton at all in the Najee thread.

I do my best not to create a new thread every time I have an idea.

 

kahn says the same. probably because he has to like the wr coach.

https://steelersdepot.com/2024/06/i...n-pleased-with-direction-of-steelers-wr-room/

 

What else is he going to do? Admit that he did a poor job with the wide receiver room so far this offseason?

 

No he probably was thinking I hope this doesn't make scribe mad.

 

Fans, experts, analysts (some anyway), writers, the list goes on and on.

A couple of thoughts from fans such as you and I. From Videos to Articles.








Article recently by the Ringer here.


Another one by Fox Sports here.

The average career length does encompass a wide range of variables. I'm not disputing that at all. All I am stating is that the reality is Running Backs simply don't last that long comparable to their peers. Whether or not the situation is specific, Najee himself being an exception to the rule of this thus far, is not relevant overall.

Not for the top tier Running Backs it doesn't. There is a reason why I listed the likes of Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey (a lesser extent admittedly) and Josh Jacobs; their contributions towards Offensive Production is either greater than or equal to how proficient the Offense performs. For example, Christian's impact on the 49ers was massive; further explained here. Derrick Henry himself doesn't really need too much information done on him for he was the literal reason the Titans became as competitive as they did from 2018-2022. Josh Jacobs doesn't get the credit he deserves but prior to this past season, Josh Jacbos was top three within the Raiders total Touchdown output; 12 for Jacobs followed by 14 for Adams then Carr having the most at 24 per Pro Football Reference.

Fair point.

Well there it is. As you said, being shouldn't be the end all be all but that is business in the NFL. Khan alluded to this when asked about it earlier in the week.


To end this, mind you, I have already stated where I stand; Harris should have had his option picked up already given what he has shown. As much as I hate to admit it, Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus was quoted back in 2021 in stating that drafting Najee Harris behind the Offensive Line that the Steelers had the time was no different than a "Forlorn hope". While I still don't agree with this assessment regarding Najee, I do realize that not picking up the option isn't a good sign overall; doubly so when it comes to Steelers players. For that matter, dating back to 2017, only T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick have had their Fifth Year's exercised. That is literally the list. All others have had theirs decline for one reason or another.


I hope I am wrong about the Steelers letting go of Najee despite the ever increasing public outcry. I wouldn't be shocked though if I did.

 

East a snicker’s bar!?

 

Typos happen.

 

I understand you're trying to provide the rationale from the POV of the team, not your own, but I still don't see a compelling argument for them. How fans, writers, etc., feel about the valuation of the position as a whole doesn't really matter on either side of this. They're giving their opinion on the trend at the position, which is what the NFL thinks the position is worth. The latter is what we're concerned with when debating whether Harris is a good value at $7M in 2025.

The market is the first step the prospective value of the contract. Running backs have seen a stark decline in salary increase relative to that of other positions over the past 10+ years. Here's a graphic from OTC showing the salary increases of the top five at each position over the past 10 years that reflects this trend:





This doesn't mean value can't be had at any at RB, K, LS, etc., just that their market price (demand) has not increased as sharply as other positions. It sets a relative base for contract amounts before factoring in past performance and future projection.

I continue to disagree with your assertion on average longevity as it applies to Harris, as well as your take on TDs and their significance in defining RB value. To say Harris' current health is irrelevant in the face of the 2.6 year average your link shows is a little silly. The Jaguars just signed Lawerence to a 5yr/$275M extension, with $142M guaranteed at signing. Yet, he's entering his fourth year in the league and your link says the average QB career is 4.4 years. Further, McCaffrey, Jacobs, and Barkley all signed multi-years deals this offseason with a minimum AAV of $12M, and all are older than Harris.

Touchdowns, without context, are too influenced by the rest of the team's play to be a significant determinant of a RB's value. You've spoken about how much of a factor the offensive line is to a RB's success; it's a similar thought process here. You point to Jacobs and company for their ability to keep finding the end zone, but over a 17-game season he averages about one more TD than Harris when you add the context of TD/game.

I'm not pushing a case for Harris to be considered in the same company as a McCaffrey, Barkley, Jacobs, or Taylor, all guys with $12M+ AAVs. But over the past three years, Harris ranks 4th in overall rushing yards, 8th in yards/gm, and 10th in receiving yards. I can't see the rationale behind thinking that kind of production isn't worth 1yr/$7M.

 

nice. i think the trouble being is warren. we will have to pay him. do we pay two RB's 6-7 mil. a year? 13-14 mil for 1 year. we will have to pay a QB or two most likely. we will need a backup at a minimum LT. then probably CB, WR, DL or two. that salary cap number will go down quickly with these signings. harris will then have 4 years of pounding on him. maybe they only want to pay one RB and look for another warren in the draft or the kid from georgia as the new warren. the QB situation will come into play next year.

 

The Steelers currently have the fourth-most space under next year's cap. While they only have 39 players under contract, much of this will be less expensive depth-filling. (A full list of their current players set to be eligible for some type of free agency, listed by contract AAV, can be found here.) OTC's expected cap space (cap room after filling a roster of 53 and signing next year's rookie class) currently has the Steelers ~$68M under a projected $260M cap, the latter of which IMO is a conservative estimate.

As for the higher-dollar fills, I expect they look to the draft for the CB, WR, and DL. QB will be interesting. Who gets more playing time, and what do they do with it. Hard to see them dropping huge dollars for either Wilson or Fields, unless the latter gets significant snap share and magically corrects the faults from his first three years. Regardless of who they sign and for how much, they can easily massage a few million out of the first year if needed.

At the end of the day they should have the capacity to pay both Warren and Harris for 2025. On top of the cap space they have going in, they could also look to restructure Watt or Fitz to free up the $6M difference from keeping Harris versus replacing him with a draft pick.

 

Just depends. Two qbs could eat much of that 68 mil. Up. Warren, friermuth, a starting corner. Won't take long to eat that up, plus 14 more players.

 

Not sure who you're going after at QB with that kind of cash. Prescott, Love, and Tua are currently on path to hit the market next year and may see AAVs in the $45M range, but I don't see the Steelers doling that out for them (nor would I want them to). Love may develop into something special, but I'd want to see him show what he did in the second half of last year over a full season first. Regardless, I doubt the Packers enter the season without extending him.

Wilson (at 36.5 y/o) or Fields would have to show something truly remarkable to be considered in that tier. At best, and I think this would still take some doing, I could see something in line with Mayfield's 3yr/$33M deal (OTC valued Wilson's 2023 at $26M, Fields $20M). And there's no veteran backup with a contract over a $10M AAV; a rookie via the draft would be even cheaper. So let's guesstimate $42M at the position.

Most of the pending FAs are at some level of vet minimum, depending on years of service. Assuming the highest rate to give a buffer, it's $11.3M (that's nine players btw, 14 includes the guys you mentioned above). Warren is an RFA, so if not extended will need to be tendered before FA next year. The first-round tender this year was $6.8M. That will inflate next year, say $7M. Freiermuth is tricky. If they extend him now his value is lower; wait, and he could have a year that allows him to push for a contract with an AAV around $12M. Jackson I would replace via the draft.

Definitely some back of the cocktail napkin numbers here, but about $72.3M. Plus an additional $6M if Harris is kept over a rookie. Not really a stretch. I think the cap will be at least $5M higher than OTC's estimate. They could swing some money in the years of the contracts/extensions they offer. And they could restructure Watt or Minkah to free up more dollars as well.

 

Back to receivers, eventhough we don't have a clear #2, we overall have a pretty good room, opportunity for a lot of players, so I think a trade at this time wld be too much of a disruption financially and w team chemistry. There is nothing wrong w hungry players looking to prove themselves like Van Jefferson, Watkins, and, as reports have been overwhelmingly positive so far, Calvin Austin.

With creative and competent offensive coaching (Arth, Azzini, Smith), I think Austin has real chance to help out next year.

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/sauce-gardner-names-toughest-wide-receiver-hes-guarded

 

Steelers Traded Diontae Johnson Because of Maturity Issues (steelersnow.com)

 

we also will have to factor in wr's. will pickens get an extension next year? he will be in the final year of his rookie deal. we will lose many of the receivers from this year. we will have austin in his final year and pickens. wilson would be the only one on a rookie deal still. this will definitely get interesting next year. seems like a ton of money right now but......

 

doesn't fields have some money that also kicks in if he plays over 51% of the snaps?

 

TYPOS NEGATIVE.

 

And the west of the candy.

 

I'm not saying it's a ton of money (for the NFL at least). I'm just pointing out how the actual numbers break down and the pivots that can be made to accommodate a few million more. I just don't see any contract on deck that guaranteeing $7M to Harris is going to torpedo.

As for Fields, you're thinking of the conditions of his trade. If he takes 51% of the snaps this year the Bears receive the Steelers' 2025 4th round pick, rather than the 6th.

 

The Steelers have 11 WR's on their current roster. Those 11 players caught a total of 137 balls in the NFL combined last season. 63 of those were George.

Which means the other 10 averaged 7 catches each. Sure, Roman is a rookie, but that means that he isn't proven at all.

That being said, Roman Wilson is probably, by default, their 2nd best wr without taking a snap.

Not great.

 

We are doomed.

WR corps is overrated, IMO. How many championships has Justin Jefferson won with Vikings? How many has CD Lamb won with Cowboys? It's all about the O-line. If any average WR corps has time to get open and a decent QB has time to get them the ball..... good things happen.

See '05 Steelers. Average WR corps... excellent O-line and QB on the rise.

 

At this point they are content with what they have. I believe they might add at camp but it won't be someone who gets a massive contract. A castoff.

Killer O Line, Ben becoming a star. But I don't put Hines Ward into the average category. The rest absolutely.