Why does Vegas think we are going to be last in division? 7.5 win line wow

As long as we don't play like we did for the last few years against teams that are on the ropes we should have at least an ok season.........Drove me nuts that the more we were favored by, the higher our chances of losing were. But if we see our offense perform well this year, we could have a great season. Our defense will not be a dumpster fire unless injuries get us. They will at worst be decent. So it is going to come down to the performance of the offense. We have made some great upgrades there and if they can all gel and play as a team, we will get to the playoffs (hopefully not a one and done).

 

LoL. Again. I'm not falling for You trying to put words into My mouth. You keep trying. LoL. Example: I said Defense....You say team.....I say an outlier, and You then try suggesting this nonsense.

 

Just a tad of Sarcasm?

 

Sure, playing with a very average passer might have something to do with them not turning out... but a lot of those WR's are just bad WR's too. Flowers didn't suck, why did the others struggle? Is it because Lamar suddenly got better this season? Or that he's probably just a better player than the others?

And Lamar doesn't struggle in the post season because other teams "keep him in the pocket". He averages 6.0 YPC and 61 YPG in the regular season (10.2 Att/G), but averages 7.1 YPC and 87 YPG in the post season (12.2 Att/G)... So he rushes 2 times a game more in the post season and averages better YPC and YPG rushing. It shows that he is actually MORE successful as a runner in the post season. He shuts himself down as a passer by playing poorly. Worse rating, comp %, and turns it over at a higher rate.

 

Just when a team plays prevent there are certain things they straight up give, and others they won't. Now look at when those runs are. Some of those runs are on 3rd, and extremely long....of course they will back off , and allow a bit of running.

 

UGH lol seriously?

I'm not going through old Ravens games to see how many yards were gained on 3rd and long. You're just trying to point to a reasonable explanation for stats NOT backing up your claim. They don't. He isn't gaining all his yards rushing when the defense is playing "prevent" defense. This is the same argument that gets used as to why Warren gets more YPC than Harris despite it being proven that nearly all of his big plays last season were on first/second down. This is just false.

 

Please read. I never said they were in prevent d. I said just like a prevent D you give up certain things. On a 3, and long....nobody cares if He takes off rushing for 6, or 7 yards if it's 3, and 12. This has happened a lot, and if You watched instead of just going by stats You would see this happen a lot.
On the Najee/Warren thing.....please tell Me You know that most of the 2nd, and 3rd down backs have a higher yard per carry than the primary rb.....that in itself should tell You all You need to know....., or do You just think all the HCs, and GMs are stupid, and make their least capable RB the starters. LoL

 

Me? Never!

 

You said:

"Just when a team plays prevent there are certain things they straight up give, and others they won't. Now look at when those runs are. Some of those runs are on 3rd, and extremely long....of course they will back off , and allow a bit of running."

This is an insinuation that teams gave Lamar more 3rd and long runs because they're essentially "allowing" it instead of wanting him to throw. This is a weird insinuation since you don't have any facts to back it up aside from stating "if I watched games instead of looked at stats, I would just know". You have given 0 evidence to back your claim up, so I am not sure why you even bring it up at all? These are just words without evidence.

Yes it is true that 3rd down backs generally have a higher YPC, but to use your words; if you actually watched the game instead of just relying on simple stats you'd see that Jaylen Warren isn't used as a traditional 3rd down back. He is given series and spells Najee mostly, and Najee still sees snaps on 3rd down as a reliable blocker and having solid hands. So Warren is just the second back in a tandem. You keep making this argument with Warren, but the only difference is that I offered actual evidence to support my claims with real runs and outcomes instead of words.

Raiders: 2nd Q 5:45 13 yds on 1st and 10
Texans: 3rd Q 12:10 19 yds on 2nd and 6
Ravens: 4th Q 9:07 11 yds on 1st and 10 (hurdle)
4th Q 8:48 16 yds on 1st and 10 (spin)
Rams: 4th Q 13:52 13 yds (TD) on 2nd and 5
Titans: 2nd Q 3:40 17 yds on 1st and 10
4th Q 6:26 13yds on 3rd and 1
4th Q 4:58 22yds on 1st and 10
Packers: 2nd Q 14:17 16 yds (TD) on 1st and 10
4th Q 7:25 20 yds on 1st and 10
Browns: 3rd Q 14:17 74yds (TD) on 2nd and 9
4th Q 11:09 21 yds on 2nd and 9 (stiff arm and spin)
Cardinals: 2nd Q 11:33 19 yds on 1st and 10
Seahawks: 1st 1:51 19 yds (TD) on 2nd and 8
2nd Q 13:48 24 yds on 1st and 10
Ravens: 1st 8:09 23 yds on 1st and 10

You continue to believe that Jaylen Warren pads his rushing stats on 3rd and long despite the majority of his big runs coming on running downs and running situations. He even had a 63yd TD in preseason vs the Bills on 1st down as well. He DOES get some decent chunks on dump-off passes on 3rd down, but this doesn't affect his RUSHING stats. I've proven that you're assessment on Warren's rushing is wrong... this is a fact. Now can you prove your assessment on Lamar? Or are you just going to be okay making me take your word for it with nothing to back it up?

 

I left out like , and didn't notice it,...Just (like) when a team runs prevent. Although if You read the whole thing...You knew what I was saying.
Dear God in heaven. I never once said He pads his stats on 3 , and long, but it would take a idiot not to realize if it's 3rd, and 12, and He runs for 10.....it helps his stats. You are also not bringing up some of His biggest runs came when both RBs were on the field.....why???
You are also still not answering why is it that most of the 2nd, and 3rd Rbs in the NFL have higher YPC than the main Rb....why???
LoL....You people, and Your stats....watch the games....look at what defense are doing when certain things happen.....certain players are playing, and what they are in.....the stats don't show You that. The stats don't show that on 2nd down, and 5 when Najee is in the backfield...that the D has changed to bigs, and are run blitzing....but hey stick to Your stats.
How hard is it to understand that someone that has twice as many carries will effect His YPC. Common sense man ....Common sense.

 

Common sense? Where do i find common sense? Tik Tok , Facebook, Siri or Alexa?
Breaking news, computer technology is great people, but it wont teach you common sense!
You were spot on my man!

 

Vegas doesn’t believe Wilson will have a comeback year. They may be right. They may be wrong. I think hes got one more good year left in him. Tomlin is going to let him be Russ and the line will be better, as will the defense.

 

See red above.

In all honesty the Harris and Warren are different. Warren should always have a higher YPC simply because when he breaks one, he can score. Warren should always have more yards before contact than Harris too because his running vision is far superior to Najee's (this is probably Harris' biggest weakness outside of his lack of explosion). I vastly prefer guys like Jaylen over guys like Harris. He just has so much more to his game than Najee can offer, and he is perfectly built for today's NFL and what offenses are trying to do in the league in 2024. Harris' skillset is easily replaced. Warren would be MUCH harder for us to replace if he wasn't around.

 

don't bet your mortgage!

 

same with us - Minkah or TJ, and our D suffers horribly. maybe not able to recover. TJ clearly the #1 operative. the difference is those other teams rely on their QB, we rely on D starts. If we go into those last 8 games and all those opposing teams QB's are healthy, we may not get to 8 wins.

Expecially with a Tomlin Special somewhere, early in the season

 

It’s this. And it’s as simple as this. Vegas thinks th two QBs in Steeler uniforms are fading or not very good compared to the competition. We shall see. But I’d def take those odds. I think Vegas is wrong.

 

Someone is having a love affair. I think they are both really good. I’d give the slight edge to Harris. But so close. I think they are both top ten backs in nfl. Steelers are going to kill it on the run. And then hit chunk plays. I’m feeling it.

 

I just think Warren is a good deal better than Harris. It's not necessarily a love affair, its just an assessment of me liking what Warren brings to the table and being disappointed in what we got out of Harris when you take the price it took to get him in consideration. We needed more out of Harris, and I think we are completely right to not pick up Harris' 5th year option. What he brings to the table just isn't worth 7mil/yr.

TBH neither are top 10 backs imo. Harris is just a mediocre back and Warren hasn't been given enough opportunity to prove that's where he belongs (I think he'd have a good shot if he was the feature back). Hopefully an improvement in the playcalling and offensive line will help both of them have a quality 2024 campaign.

 

When Harris was drafted is irrelevant to the question of who is better, Harris or Warren. If you can't make the comparison that way, and it seems like you aren't doing it so far, then your biases are getting in the way of you offering a valid opinion.

 

No, I think Warren is a better back than Najee regardless of draft position... I wasn't implying that that it had an affect on my assessment of who is actually a better player. Spending a first round pick on Najee just makes the disappointment in what we got out of him FEEL worse. I vastly prefer Warren's style and skillset, and really don't think Harris brings a ton to the table (on the field. He definitely brings value in the locker room) he's fine... nothing more.

Had we spent a 3rd or 4th round pick on Najee and gotten an okay RB out of it, then it would FEEL like a pretty good transaction. Spending a first round pick on an okay RB FEELS like a bad transaction. It has no effect on how okay Najee is as a player, but it does have an effect on the team/franchise. Spending high capital on players that turn out to be mediocre hurts the football team. That is where the disappointment lies.

 

Only six running backs in the NFL had more yards than Harris. This is with Warren taking a significant chunk of the carries, an offensive line that took half the season to get its act together, and a passing game that took even longer. Also, he showed that he can produce and hold onto the ball in any weather conditions. Warren showed us the opposite.

You may not mean to say his draft status affects your view of him, but it certainly seems as if it does.

 

The steelers need Harris and Warren...Without one of the 2,the load will be way too big for the one who stay and the injury are more likely to happen and the steelers would be in trouble after that without a competent backup.....And I don't care who is better between Warren and Harris,we need both for this year

 

Yeah, but there is volume to help that, right? Only six backs had more yards than Harris, but only 5 had more carries than Harris too. Only 9 backs in the whole league played in all 17 games, but Harris did. Its just simple math, he's a volume runner.

Harris is pretty much Rashard Mendenhall all over again. In Mendy's first 3 seasons as a starter, he gained 3309 yards rushing on 794 carries (47 games) and scored 29 TD's. Harris has gained 3269 yards on 834 carries (51 games) and scored 22 TD's. I get that Mendenhall played on a better offense because Ben vs. KFP, but those lines he ran behind weren't known to be particularly good lines either. The point I'm trying to make is that it is hard to say Harris is a better back than Mendenhall was, and most people on here thought Mendenhall was pretty much trash. Harris is production wise the same exact dude. He's just not that good.

 

I think Harris is a slightly above average NFL back. To be fair his QB play has been abysmal which loads up the box almost every play. Certainly wasn’t worth a round 1 pick.