AFC Playoff Race

Yea I mean you could have the Colts lose to Atlanta tomorrow and Houston lose to the Browns tomorrow and the Titans next week and then have the Texans beat the Colts in Indy the final week of the season. In this scenario both the Colts and Texans finish 9-8 and the Steelers if they win out finish 10-7 and then there is no tiebreaker scenario involved the Steelers would get in over both Houston and Indy based on a better record. The Jags keep in mind are currently 8-6 as well and they could lose in Tampa tomorrow and drop to 8-7 then you can start to look at them as well in tiebreakers. The bottom line is this the Steelers better win out and finish 10-7 if they hope to get in. There is really no scenario where the Steelers can finish 9-8 and still hope to get in the playoffs. They won’t any tiebreakers over anyone at 9-8. They either win in both Seattle next weekend and in Baltimore that final weekend and finish 10-7 or they aren’t making it it’s plain and simple.

 

Here's an interesting backdoor path

Steelers win last 2.
Dolphins lose to Cowboys, Ravens and Bills.

The Steelers would get in unless there is a 4 way tie at 10-7 with the Dolphins, Steelers, Colts and Broncos and Houston is 11-6 or a 5 way tie at 10-7 with Dolphins, Browns, Texans, Steelers and Broncos.

That may be the most likely way in.

All that is needed is 2 wins, 3 Dolphins losses and the Texans to lose a game and the Browns just not finish 10-7.

So root for

1. Cleveland to beat Houston tomorrow and the Browns to win or tie one of their last 2 (Jets, Bengals)
2. Dolphins to lose out (possible, especially if Dallas wins tomorrow)
3. Ravens to win next two (makes week 18 meaningless for Ravens, otherwise that game will matter to Ravens BIG time)
4. Also want the Jags to win the AFC South (either by being 11-6 or by all 3 AFC south teams to be 10-7). If Colts went 11-6, Jags 10-7 that would knock out the Steelers too in a 4 way tie.

If that happens, I believe the Steelers are in if they win their last 2.

Actually would just need Dolphins to lose next 2 because then unless the Dolphins and Bills tie, the Steelers would get of them to be 10-7 and eliminate the H2H tiebreakers with AFC south. But Steelers would lose a 3 way tie with Buffalo and Denver but not with Denver and Miami

 

Yea the Miami losing out scenario is an interesting one nobody will talk about. I won’t attempt to try and figure out 4 or 5 way tiebreakers at least not yet but what you said makes sense about the Dolphins losing the last 3 games and getting in over them with a tiebreaker as long as Houston loses one game which is most likely going to happen sounds right. Even if Miami doesn’t lose out you still want them to lose the next two because assuming the Bills beat the Pats next week which they will in Buffalo both would be 10-6 going into that game to decide the AFC East and the Steelers win tie breaking scenarios over both the Bills and Dolphins as you said if one finishes at 10-7 with the Steelers at 10-7. So we’ll see how things shake out later today with the Colts and Texans and Miami as well. It’s also very important as you said for the Ravens game the last week of the season for Miami to lose to Dallas today because the Ravens could wrap up the one seed over Miami with a win next week and make that game with the Steelers on Jan 7th meaningless and maybe have them playing guys like Tyler Huntley instead of Lamar Jackson and other backups for the Ravens with a playoff spot on the line.

 

Even if the Steelers win these last 2 games the odds of them getting in are very slim but this win really crippled the Bengals chances. The Bengals would have had a 65% chance of making the playoffs with a win yesterday but now their chances have fallen down to 15%.

 

It's very difficult to predict these things- there are always- ALWAYS - some big upsets at this time of year, and beware of teams that seem to have nothing to play for. I don't think Denver wins out, for example.

 

Here we are once again needing help to back into the playoffs.

 

One thing I didn’t mention earlier if the Ravens lose to the 49ers tomorrow night even if they beat Miami the following week as long as Kansas City wins their next 2 home games against the Raiders on Christmas and the Bengals next week that game in Baltimore the final week will still be for the 1 seed in the AFC for the Ravens because if the Chiefs win out and win their last game in LA and the Ravens lose to the Niners and Steelers the Chiefs get the 1 seed over the Ravens if both are 12-5. I did confirm in the playoff predictor that if there is a 3 way tie with Miami Denver and the Steelers at 10-7 should the Dolphins lose out the Steelers would get in. There are other scenarios as well if the Browns lose two more games and finish 10-7 and if the Bills lose one more game and finish 10-7 the Steelers would get in and the same with the Colts and Texans but I won’t attempt to sort that all out until after todays results happen and in the next few weeks.

 

Yeah, I think the two most unlikely things is Dallas beating Miami today and the Ravens beating the 49ers this week (which would make the Ravens game in week 18 matter to them - due to the Chiefs and possibly for the division too since the Browns could be 12-5 and would win the tiebreaker vs the Ravens at 12-5). Also, if the Dolphins win today, but loses next, it would make them play hard vs the Bills in week 18 but unless Miami beat the Bills it wouldn't matter because if the Bills won, both teams would have 11 wins and it would force the Steelers to need Houston, Indy and Denver to lose (multiple games in some cases).

Ultimately the losses to NE, Arizona will be the crushers (they could have recovered even beating Indy).

I'm not sure the Steelers get to 9, let alone 10 - which considering where they were is a wasted season again. Especially considering Burrow was out, he's back next year so that takes care of a few wins a year and the division for the better part of a decade.

 

Tomlin's legacy. This and making it in only to get schooled in the WC game by an inferior opponent.

 

Yea Miami losing today to Dallas and next week at Baltimore assuming the Bills beat New England next week which they most likely will do will set up that scenario you talked about of the loser of the Miami Buffalo game in week 18 for the AFC East being 10-7 and the Steelers having a pretty decent chance to win tiebreakers over both Miami and Buffalo at 10-7. So while yes you want Houston to probably lose to Cleveland today and the Colts to lose in Atlanta keep an eye on that Dolphins Bills scenario 10-7 tiebreaker scenario with the Steelers because that one is very much in play today if Miami loses to Dallas and Houston loses to Cleveland.

 

Exactly, do I want them to go to the playoffs, I'm a fan and yes. Regardless of how they get there, the experience alone helps to frame your team. That said, the regulas season matters, despite how we played we had a winning record, had a massive opportunity to write our own ticket against teams with losing records and home games. We lost those games ugly and once again the posts start on the ways we MAY get in. So I go back to the WHY we are in this place. Fire freaking Tomlin, yep that;s what it comes down to.

 

Of all the things that drive us nuts about Tomin, this is what kills me the most. No matter how good they start and control their destiny, there is always the feeling of the 'Wait for it' Tomlin special(s) causing them to need help to make the playoffs.

 

Appreciate all the scenario work, JPP, especially since the Espn Playoff Machine seems to be non functional right now.

I will however never concede anything to the Bengals and/or Burrow, however. The latter has already shown himself to be highly injury prone in his short career. The franchise, which has always been ineptly run, is headed for potential cap hell. It is them who should look at 2023 as a wasted year in which many had them in the Super Bowl.

 

The Tomlin Special!!!

 

He shouldn't have started against the Colts, but to be clear, Freiermuth and many others have pointed out that his one interception against the Patriots was Freiermuth's fault, not Trubisky's. He still played poorly in that game and the loss to the Colts, but so did the defense.

 

I posted that on the game-day thread yesterday. It would be the most Tomlin thing ever for them to recover from those disastrous losses to the Cardinals and Patriots to get to 10 wins and miss the playoffs anyway.

 

I guess Tuesday morning we will have a better idea of the Playoff picture. Last year week 18 was pretty interesting to follow and we damn near got in. I just hope come week 18 we at least have a shot regardless how long of a shot it is. It would make for a better football weekend.

 

Buffalo winning vs Chargers killed us. Losing to Cardinals and Patriots killed us too. Browns and Bills are gonna get 5&6 seed.

 

We haven't won the division in 6 years

 

What???
We just won in 2020

 

Really i just read we havn't won it in 6 years.. i guess i should have fact checked that... lol

 

Yes we were 1st, and the Ravens were last. If I remember correctly.

 

six years since our last playoff win.

 

Buffalo wouldn't matter if not for the the three straight losses.

I think the Bills are going to win the AFC East, either at 11-6 with the Dolphins or outright. Hopefully outright, which would push the Dolphins into the 10-7 muck. In that case, it will be 2 spots between the Dolphins, Steelers, Texans, Colts, Broncos with the Browns as the 5 seed.

Unfortunately, I believe the Ravens will need the week 18 game to secure the 1 seed (and to win the AFCN) so they'll play with the foot on the pedal.

If I had to predict today

1. Ravens
2. KC
3. Jags
4. Bills
5. Browns
6. Dolphins
7. Texans/Colts winner in week 18 (I think Texans if Stroud plays).

 

I'm more confident Steelers winning vs Ravens than Seahawks. Even with LJ starting. It's gonna be hard to pull out a win on the west coast given the history of Tomlin's futility and lack of preparation for games in the Pacific time zone.