Tomlin vs Cowher against bad teams

Forgive me for creating a new thread for this, but there was a lot of discussion on another thread regarding how Tomlin stacks up against Cowher and how each did or didn't benefit from his predecessor's players. There was also a lot of debate about Tomlin's perceived inability to take care of business against lesser opponents. So I have crunched the numbers. Here are the two coaches records in their first six seasons, against teams with 10 or more losses:

Cowher 22-8
Tomlin 20-9

Now, the Tomlin record is a little inclomplete because I am assuming a 10-loss season by the Browns and the two teams have a game left. But that's where they stand. Now, as for the "quality of victory" against these teams, here is the average winning margin for these wins:

Cowher: 12.5
Tomlin: 14.6

Advantage Tomlin.

But here is where it gets interesting. Let's suppose it takes three seasons before a coach truly benefits from his own drafts and personnel moves, before a majority of players have only played for that coach. Here are the records of the two coaches in seasons 4, 5, 6 against teams with 10+ losses:

Cowher: 9-3, avg. winning margin: 12.4
Tomlin: 11-4, avg. winning margin: 13.9

Those of us who are being critical of Tomlin may have a short memory. Perhaps we give Cowher a bit of a pass (no pun intended) because he was winning with mediocrity at the QB position. I have definitely noticed a difference in how the game is played over the past decade or so, too. Entering this season, Tomlin's teams won 11 straight against these teams. We seem to be focusing on this season (a very, very bad season indeed).

A few weeks ago I crunched numbers regarding turnovers committed by Tomlin's and Cowher's teams in their first six seasons and they were very close statistically. What I do not have are penalties committed and yards.

 

I also do not have numbers regarding games lost due to injury.

 

Something else to remember:

When Cowher took the job in 1992, the Steelers had not been to a Super Bowl in 12 seasons and had just two playoff wins in that span.
When Tomlin took the job, the Steelers had played in two Super Bowls over the previous 12 seasons and had 11 playoff wins in that span.

Translation, we have much higher expectations now. We can thank BOTH Cowher and Tomlin for re-establishing and maintaining the Steeler brand.

 

Nice analysis! Thanks!

 

Good piece of work 12to88 ! I might be wrong but based on a lot of your recent posts regarding Tomlin something tells me you were a bit surprised by your own analysis

 

Indeed. Perception is sometimes different than reality. The numbers show that Tomlin's teams perform better, overall, against these types of oppoenets. However, this afternoon on The Fan, Josh Miller said something interesting: He had never seen a Steeler team lacking in football IQ like this one. This sort of observation can't really be researched without going through film of every game, going back years.

 

i don't understand why we compair tomlin only with cowher , if i have to be honest , i don't like any of them as my ideal head coach . i liked cowher toughness and how wanted always more from his coordinators , but was too limited in football mind (too defensive) expecially in the league of today, tomlin to me is useless , my ideal coach is a guy like sean payton or belicheak or even jim harbough ( i hate him as a person)

 

To be honest with you that doesn't surprise me all that much. Not from the standpoint of coaching but more due to the lack of veteran player leadership. I think that's hurting this team more than anyone can imagine right now. The term "Young and dumb" is a perfect fit for this year's team, especially the WR crew but let's not forget the rookies being shoveled in and out of other positions all over the field as well due to veteran starters being injured on a regular basis.

 

Tomlin has been here 5 years....Cowher 15. He had some down years in the 2000's, but I have to say it skews the stats that Tomlin has a small sample.

Cowher crushed bad teams, especially in his division, look at all the division titles he has.

 

And for all we know Tomlin could end up doing the same thing over the next 10 years

 

I said weeks ago that we have a dumb team. Fans are going to call for coaches jobs, that's what fans do, but by and large, our problems lie with our players.[/QUOTE]

if the coach let them keep doing dumb things they will never learn , kick them in the ass put an injuction every fumble bench them shout , the problem is nobody is fearing tomlin , look around everybody say what they want to the media , this team can be good need only a strong master leadership from the head coach , a military one

 

if the coach let them keep doing dumb things they will never learn , kick them in the ass put an injuction every fumble bench them shout , the problem is nobody is fearing tomlin , look around everybody say what they want to the media , this team can be good need only a strong master leadership from the head coach , a military one[/QUOTE]

Didn't he do that with all 4 running backs against the Browns?

 

Didn't he do that with all 4 running backs against the Browns?[/QUOTE]

yes but has to start from the camp and with everybodies ( not only rb ) expecially the ones that come out of shape , almost 70 % of the team , and with the coach too , everyday you have to be around like a rabid dog

 

Numbers lie!! Tomlin isn't even in the same league as cowher!! Does Tomlin grab guys by the facemask and spit in their face when they mess up?? Nope!

 

Cowher used to piss me off. He had more prevent D losses than all the NFL put together
IMHO

 

How many AFC championship games did Bill Cowher lose at home?
Lets face it these 2 are no Chuck Noll, the emperor forgot more
about football then these two bimbos will ever know.

 

This thread reminds me of a joke I heard.

"How many Pittsburghers does it take to change a light bulb???? (Keep Scrolling Answer is a ways down)

































Ans: 3, one to change the bulb and two to reminisce about how great the old one was.

 

I don't ever recall thinking that Cowher needed to be fired. Instead, I remember thinking, after the 0-3 start in 2000, with Kent Graham at QB, that Cowher was going to resign. Kevin Colbert had come on as GM just a couple of seasons earlier, and the dropoff in talent seemed significant. Draft picks had been wasted on guys like Jamain Stephens and Troy Edwards. I wondered if Cowher was going to throw his arms up and say, this isn't fixable, I'm outta here. But they turned it around in 2000, nearly made the playoffs, Kordell seemed to mature, and then 2001 happened.

My thoughts on Tomlin: This has been a bad season, and much of it is on him. My guess is that he knows this. My guess is also that Colbert knows where they have made mistakes with personnel and contracts. So maybe we shouldn't skewer Tomlin just yet. Let's see what happens with the 2013 draft, see if Tomlin approaches camp differently next July. Stupidity is making the same mistake over and over again, expecting something to change. We'll know what kind of head coach Mike Tomlin is based on the kinds (if any) adjustments he makes for next season.

 

12 i posted this article earlier...it should solidify your argument...


http://triblive.com/sports/joestarkey/3118531-74/games-missing-steelers

 

thanks for this, 12 to 88. Very interesting.

Once thing I can remember about Cowher as well was that the Steelers seemed to have an excellent record when they scored 20 or more points in a game. This to me seemed have gone down under Tomlin, despite having a better Qb and a better defense for the most part. \

I just checked, and under Tomlin the Steelers are 53-17 including playoffs when they score at least 20 (.757 pct) and Cowher was 126-32-1 (.796 pct)- not a huge difference. The 2012 Steelers are now 5-4 when they score 20 or more points, which is one of the weakest records they've had in that respect in a long time.